What Just Happened? is a short-format, informal podcast from the intelligence analysts at Sibylline Ltd, a strategic risk firm based in London. It is hosted by Ignacio Ayala, who holds brief conversations with fellow analysts. Each episode updates listeners on major geopolitical events as they happen. The show focuses on timely analysis of international risk and current affairs.
Episodes
Israel: Could renewed war with Iran keep Netanyahu in power?
Israel’s election has left neither bloc with a majority. Could renewed war with Iran give Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to form a national unity government and stay in power?
On What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Principal MEA Analyst Megan Sutcliffe and Middle East Analyst Omar Khadr to discuss how Israel might break the deadlock and what Netanyahu’s departure could mea
From Yemen to Saudi Arabia: Can Britain and Regional Powers Contain the Houthis?
Britain is sending fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks, while inside Yemen the battle for Taiz threatens to shift the balance of the war.
In this week’s What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Middle East analysts Omar Khadr and Owen Williams to examine the widening international defence effort, the Houthi offensive and whether Saudi Arabia and its
US Midterms: Why the Hardest Test for America's Allies May Lie Ahead
US midterms: Why the hardest test for America’s allies may lie ahead
Could an electoral setback leave Donald Trump weakened at home but more assertive abroad?
In this week’s What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli joins Sibylline’s Principal Analyst Americas Claire Brady and Lead Analyst Lewis Galvin to explore the midterm outlook, MAGA’s uncertain future and the Republican succession strugg
Could Europe face a mass-casualty attack within six months?
Could Russia’s shadow war cause mass casualties in Europe within six months? Following an attack on a Polish Starlink ground station, What Just Happened? host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Karan Vassil and former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram MBE to examine Moscow’s increasingly reckless hybrid campaign.
As Russia tests the West’s red lines, are Western governments doing
Hybrid Warfare: Is Europe Edging Closer to Open Confrontation?
The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation?
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests ne
Could the AI race lead to catastrophe?
The US still leads the global AI race, but China is closing the gap. Could the competition itself make AI more dangerous?
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, and Lead Analyst for Technology and Geopolitics, Jake James, to explore the potential existential risks of AI, why US-China strategic competition could make meaningful s
Iran-US War: What Happens Next?
The Iran-US conflict has evolved significantly over the past seven months, creating strategic, economic and societal consequences both inside Iran and across the wider region.
In this episode, Samuel McVicar speaks with Sibylline Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the current state of the conflict, how it has evolved and what could come next. Megan explores Iran's inter
Russia’s Africa Corps: Inside the Niger Mutiny
An attempted mutiny in Niger has exposed growing tensions inside the country’s military regime, raising fresh questions about General Tiani’s grip on power and the loyalties of the armed forces.
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Dr Alia Brahimi, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Programs at the At
Inside Ukraine’s Growing Political Tensions
In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord to examine the political tensions emerging inside Ukraine as the war continues.
The discussion explores former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections, the political fallout from his dismissal and the broader debate over how Ukraine should balanc
Russia's Drone War Reaches Europe
A drone carrying explosives penetrated security at Leipzig Halle Airport in Germany and struck a Ukrainian-owned Antonov aircraft. Its detonator failed, potentially preventing civilian casualties.
In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Sibylline analyst Caspar von der Schulenburg joins Samuel McVicar to examine the incident and what it could signal about the evolution of Russian grey zone ta
Is Socialism Going Mainstream in US Politics?
What does a major primary victory in Michigan tell us about the future of the US Democratic Party? In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline North America Analyst Claire Brady and George King IV, Vice Chair of Democrats Abroad UK, to examine the rise of socialist politics within the Democratic Party. The discussion explores Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Mi
Why the Red Sea Could Be the Next Flashpoint
A conflict on the Red Sea is heating up again and, like the Strait of Hormuz, could have massive implications for global supply chains.
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Samuel McVicar is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Analyst Owen Williams to examine the sharp escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi movement. Following fresh missile and drone attacks,
The Global Chokepoint Challenge
What did the Strait of Hormuz crisis reveal about the future of global security? More than many realise.
In this special episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Professor Alessio Patalano of King's College London, former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe OBE and Sibylline Geoeconomic Advisor Stewart Paterson to examine the strategic lessons emerging from one of the world's mos
The Future of the US-Europe Alliance
The transatlantic alliance has shaped global security for generations. But are the United States and Europe beginning to drift apart?
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord and Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin to examine the future of one of the world's most important strategic partnerships.
The discussion exp
Ukraine's Leadership Shake-Up
Why would a president replace one of his most popular ministers in the middle of a war?
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sibylline's Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil to examine President Zelensky's controversial dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and what it reveals about Ukraine's political and military landscape.
The discussion explores the
Iraq: Can Baghdad disarm Iran-backed militias?
Following Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington and talks with President Donald Trump, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analyst Omar Khadr and Middle East expert Kyle Orton to examine whether Baghdad can bring Iran-backed militias under state control - and what that would mean for US-Iraq relations and Tehran’s influence.
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Ukraine: Can Putin avoid another mobilisation?
Ukraine's manpower shortage is well known. Russia's challenge is different: not finding more soldiers, but deciding how far Vladimir Putin is willing to go to recruit them. Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and eminent Russia expert Professor Mark Galeotti to discuss the mobilisation dilemma that could determine the course of the war into 2027.
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Why the West Needs Turkey Again
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Owen Williams and Lewis Galvin to examine why Washington is reconsidering Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme ahead of NATO’s summit in Ankara.
They discuss Turkey’s cooling relationship with Russia, its enduring value to NATO, the limits of any rapprochement, and why concerns over democratic backsliding ar
What China Learned from the Conflict in Iran
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Dr John Hemmings, Senior Adviser to the Pacific Forum and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst at Sibylline, to examine what recent conflicts may be teaching China's military planners.
Drawing lessons from the US, Israeli and Iranian conflicts, the discussion explores how Beijing is assessing American military capabilit
The Iran-US Peace Deal
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead North America Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent Iran-US peace agreement and what it could mean for regional stability.
They examine the reported scope of the agreement, including the 60-day ceasefire extension, nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief discussions and the reopening
Xi Jinping Visits Pyongyang
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Alexander Lord, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, to examine the significance of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea and what it reveals about shifting power dynamics in East Asia.
The discussion explores why China is reaffirming its relationship with Pyongyang at a time when Nor
Elections and Conflict in Ethiopia
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa analyst Benedict Manzin to examine Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections and the challenges facing the country as votes continue to be counted.
They discuss allegations of electoral fraud, delays in the voting process and the difficulties of holding elections in regions affected by conflict and insecurity. The conversatio
Turkey at a Crossroads
In this episode, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey analyst Owen Williams and Europe analyst Magdalena Lembovska Young to examine Turkey’s increasingly fragile political landscape under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
They explore the growing pressure on Turkey’s democratic institutions, the use of the judiciary against political opponents and the mounting crackdow
Russia’s New Iron Curtain
In the latest episode of What Just Happened?, Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil and Cyber & Intelligence Analyst Denise Schipani examine Moscow’s growing efforts to emulate China with a more centralised and state-controlled internet, reviving levels of repression not seen since the Soviet era.
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What Just Happened? Inside the Beijing Summit
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Principal Analyst for North America Claire Brady and Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai to examine the outcomes and implications of the recent Beijing Summit. They explore the current state of US-China relations, ongoing trade tensions and the strategic calculations shaping diplomatic engagement between the two powers. Th
What Just Happened? Mali in Crisis
On this episode, Sub-Saharan Africa analyst Edward Bach joins Samuel McVicar to discuss the recent attacks across Mali by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in collaboration with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA; an ethnic-Tuareg secessionist group). These parties' capture of Kidal, their expanding control of northern Mali and the ongoing enforcement of a blockade around
What Just Happened? Threats to the UK's Undersea Infrastructure
In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and Rear Admiral Chris Parry to examine the growing threat to critical national infrastructure beneath the sea. They explore the recent increase in Russian naval activity and the expanding use of civilian vessels for strategic purposes. The discussion focuses on the vulnerability of undersea c
What Just Happened? Peru’s Chaotic Election Cycle
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by intelligence analyst Inigo Camilleri De Castanedo to unpack Peru’s chaotic election cycle and the growing tensions surrounding the country’s political future.
They discuss delayed vote counting, allegations of fraud and why a deeply fragmented electoral field has created uncertainty following Peru’s recent elections. They also assess the regional implic
What Just Happened? Rising Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
In this episode, Sibylline Media Editor Marco Giannangeli is joined by Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin and Professor Alessio Patalano of King’s College London to examine global tensions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
They explore the strategic and legal realities of disrupting shipping through the Strait, including what it would take t
What Just Happened? Escalation in Eastern Congo
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Edward Bach to examine the rapidly escalating conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
They unpack the resurgence of the M23 militia, its backing from Rwanda and how recent territorial gains are shifting the balance on the ground. The discussion explores the deeper drivers of the conflict, from resource competition to
What Just Happened? The China War Dilemma
In this episode, Marco Giannangeli speaks to Sibylline’s Chief Analyst Sam Olsen and Dean Cheng, Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, about what that means in practice — and why Washington may face a stark choice between a long war and risking its credibility.
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What Just Happened? Cuba’s Crisis Under Pressure
A major geopolitical test case is unfolding just off the US coastline. Fuel shortages, blackouts, and tightening sanctions are pushing a Caribbean state towards a critical breaking point — after the collapse of Venezuelan oil supplies and renewed US pressure.
In this episode, Lead Americas Analyst, Lewis Galvin, joins his colleagues from the Americas desk, Azul Hidalgo Solá and Inigo Camilleri, to
What Just Happened? Russia’s Growing Threat to the UK
In this episode, Sibylline Media Editor Marco Giannangeli is joined by maritime expert Tom Sharpe OBE and Russia expert Keir Giles to examine the growing threat posed by Russian cyber and physical operations targeting European infrastructure. The conversation explores recent incidents involving sabotage and suspected GRU-linked activities and highlights key vulnerabilities across the UK's critical
What Just Happened? How the Bombing Campaign in Iran Impacts Asia
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai to examine how the ongoing US–Israeli bombing campaign in Iran could trigger a major energy shock across Asia. With around 60% of Asia’s crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the region is highly exposed to disruptions in global energy markets. They explore how countries across Asia are preparing for po
What Just Happened? The US Strikes Iran
In this episode, Sibylline Media's Editor Marco Giannangeli hosts a panel discussion with Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe and Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin to examine the rapidly unfolding situation in Iran following US and Israeli airstrikes.
They explore the implications of reported strikes on key strategic facilities and the alleged death of Supreme Leader Ali Kh
What Just Happened? Cartel Boss 'El Mencho' Killed in Mexico
In this episode, Rafael Saliés is joined by Alex Marciniak, Latin Americas intelligence analyst, to examine the uncertainty surrounding the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) following the death of the former leader, Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes AKA 'El Mencho'.
The discussion unpacks the CJNG’s operational scale, internal factions, and the regions most at risk, including Michoacán and Tamau
What Just Happened? Escalating Tensions Between the US and Iran
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by regional experts Megan Sutcliffe and Claire Brady to assess rising tensions between the United States and Iran as the region remains on high alert ahead of ongoing negotiations. They examine how military build-ups, political pressures, and fragile negotiations could either trigger wider regional conflict or open a path to de-escalation.
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What Just Happened? The UK's Vulnerable National Infrastructure
In this episode, Marco Giannangeli, Editor for Sibylline Media, sits down with Denise Schipani, Cyber and Geopolitical Intelligence Analyst, to explore the evolving landscape of cyber threats, with a particular focus on the vulnerability of critical national infrastructure in the UK. They discuss how Russian cyber operations are increasingly targeting operational technology — including water syste
What Just Happened? Mounting Tensions in Tigray
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst, Ben Manzin, to examine Ethiopia’s fragile 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement amid mounting clashes and rising geopolitical tensions in Tigray. They unpack how internal power struggles, shifting regional alliances, and decades-old ethnic disputes threaten to unravel years of diplomacy — and what that could mean for million
Russia at War: Drones, Disinformation, and the Increasing Threat to Europe
In this special Sibylline Podcast, Lead Europe-Eurasia analyst, Alexander Lord, is joined by Elizabeth Bullock, who shares her firsthand experiences of Russia's modern war. Elizabeth discusses her journey from a technology startup background to operating on the front lines in Ukraine for 3 years, offering a rare perspective on how Russia's war unfolded in its early stages and how daily life has be
What Just Happened? China, Taiwan, Western Fragmentation and the Looming 'Polycrisis'
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Sibylline's Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, to explore the concept of the 'polycrisis' — the convergence of geopolitical, technological, and economic risks threatening global stability in the coming years. Sam Olsen explains China’s growing assertiveness, Taiwan’s strategic vulnerabilities, and the critical importance of semiconductors and AI in shaping futur
What Just Happened? Trump's Greenland Deal
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Americas analyst Lewis Galvin to unpack President Trump’s recent announcement regarding a potential deal involving Greenland. They explore the military and economic implications of the proposal, assess the fragility of the agreement, and examine sovereignty concerns for both Denmark and Greenland. The discussion also covers NATO’s response, the str
ROUNDTABLE: Regional Implications Following Maduro's Capture
Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin is joined by Claire Brady, Principal Analyst for North America, and Alex Marciniak, Intelligence Analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at Sibylline, to discuss the recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela.
They explore the strategic implications of the operation, the geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S. foreign policy, and review the broader impact on
What Just Happened? Oreshnik Missile Strike in Ukraine
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Karan Vassil, Intelligence Analyst on the Eurasia desk here at Sibylline, to explain the recent Russian Oreshnik missile strike against Lviv in western Ukraine. They explore the strategic implications of the Oreshnik missile strike, discuss the geopolitical tensions surrounding NATO borders, and review the broader progress of the war throughout 2025.
What Just Happened? New Protests in Iran
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa to take a look at the ongoing protests in Iran, driven by economic frustrations amid broader geopolitical tensions. They discuss the government's response, including internet blackouts, and explore the potential for escalation and regional implications.
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What Just Happened? Maduro Captured in US Military Operation
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by the former host of What Just Happened to say farewell and discuss the recent US military operation in Venezuela, known as Operation Absolute Resolve. Together, they explore the strategic implications of the operation, the historical context of the Maduro regime crisis, and the potential future scenarios for Venezuela's political landscape.
If you enjo
What Just Happened? Escalating Tensions in Tigray
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa. Together, they delve into the recent altercation in Tigray between the Tigray Defence Forces and the Tigray Interim Administration. They discuss the strategic interests of the involved parties, the implications of the Pretoria Agreement, and the complex international dynamics at play. Megan pro
What Just Happened? The Latest on the Ukraine Peace Negotiations
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Layla Guest, an intelligence analyst for Eurasia here at Sibylline. Together, they look into the recent peace process negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Russia, focusing on the 28-point peace plan and its revisions. They discuss the strategic interests of the involved parties, the proposed territorial concessions, and the international reactions. Layla
What Just Happened? Escalating Violence in Darfur
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa. Together, they delve into the ongoing conflict in Sudan, focusing on the recent developments in the Darfur region. They discuss the strategic manoeuvres of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), highlighting the humanitarian crisis and international reactions. Megan
What Just Happened? Upset in Argentina's Midterm Elections
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Alex Marciniak, Intelligence Analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at Sibylline. Together, they discuss the unexpected results of the Argentinian midterm elections, exploring the significant win for President Javier Milei and his La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party, which outperformed pre-election polling. Alex provides insights into the implications of this
What Just Happened? Afghanistan & Pakistan Border Clashes
In this episode, Shiza Abbasi, Principal Analyst for South Asia at Sibylline, joins Ignacio Ayala to discuss the recent armed confrontations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The conversation delves into the factors driving these tensions, including the role of the TTP and the strategic dynamics at play. Shiza provides insight into the potential for escalation and the implications for regional sta
What Just Happened? Gen Z Protests Hit Morocco
In this episode, Noam Ostfeld, Principal Analyst for the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey at Sibylline, joins Ignacio to discuss the recent surge in nationwide protests across Morocco and the resulting escalation in security risks. The conversation examines the factors driving the unrest, the government’s response, and the implications for businesses and individuals operating in affected areas
What Just Happened? Drone Incursions in Europe
In this episode, Annabelle Walker, Associate Analyst for Europe at Sibylline, joins Ignacio to discuss the recent surge in drone incursions across Europe, with a particular focus on Russian activities in NATO airspace. The conversation explores the implications of these incursions, NATO's responses and potential future indicators of escalating tensions. Annabelle highlights the significance of the
What Just Happened? US Strikes on Trafficking Vessels
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Latin America Intelligence Analyst Alex Marciniak to discuss the US naval deployment off Venezuela's coast. The deployment is aimed at combating drug trafficking and exerting geopolitical pressure on the Maduro regime and follows two strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels earlier in September. Together, they explore the roles of Venezuelan crimina
What Just Happened? Political Violence in The US
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Lewis Galvin, the Lead Analyst for the Americas at Sibylline, to discuss the recent political violence in the United States and the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk. They explore the immediate aftermath and the broader implications of this event, examining the responses from high-profile political figures and the role of social media in am
What Just Happened? Israel Strikes Doha
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Omar Khadr, our analyst for the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey, to discuss the recent Israeli airstrike on Hamas headquarters in Doha. They delve into the implications of this unprecedented move, examining the potential regional repercussions and the geopolitical dynamics at play. Omar provides insights into the immediate impact of the strike on ceasefi
What Just Happened? France's New Political Crisis
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Karan Vassil, Intelligence Analyst for Europe and Eurasia, to discuss the ongoing political crisis in France. They examine the recent announcement by Prime Minister Bayrou, who has called for a vote of confidence on 8 September to secure support for his 2026 budget. The discussion explores the implications of this move and its potential impact on France’s gove
What Just Happened? Israel's New Plans for Gaza
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, to discuss Israel's new push to occupy the entirety of Gaza. They delve into the recent announcements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the implications of these plans, and the potential humanitarian impact on Gaza's densely populated areas. Megan provides insights into the geopolit
What Just Happened? Japan's Fragmenting Politics
In this episode, Ignacio delves into the recent shifts in Japanese politics following the upper house election. Our Principal Analyst for the Asia Pacific region, Jonah Kaplan, joins Ignacio to explain the fragmentation of political power as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party loses its majority, and smaller parties rise with distinct policy proposals. Together they explore the implications of thi
What Just Happened? Trump Shifts Ukraine Strategy
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Layla Guest to discuss the recent developments between Ukraine, the US and Russia. They delve into President Donald Trump's notable policy shift aimed at pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the new military assistance plans for Ukraine, the potential impact of severe tariffs on Russia and the broader implications for inter
What Just Happened? Rising Drone Warfare in Haiti
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to explore the complex dynamics of drone warfare in Haiti. They discuss the increasing use of drones by Haitian security forces, the impact on civilian safety and the broader implications for the region. The conversation also covers the formation of the 'Viv Ansanm' gang coalition and the adoption of drone warfare acros
What Just Happened? Iran's Nuclear Capabilities
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and Africa desk to understand the recent strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and discuss the damage inflicted, the current state of Iran's nuclear capabilities and the implications for Iran's intentions regarding nuclear weapon development. Megan provides insights into the complexities of nuclear weapon development, the st
What Just Happened? Colombia's Political Roller Coaster
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to unpack the current political situation in Colombia, focusing on President Gustavo Petro's labor reform, the implications of a popular consultation and the potential for a constitutional assembly. It also addresses the ongoing violence in the country and the upcoming elections, highlighting key candidates and voter co
What Just Happened? Israel Strikes Iran
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on Israel's Operation Rising Lion, which involved high-intensity airstrikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Megan and Lewis discuss the implications of these strikes,
What Just Happened? The National Guard Deploys to L.A.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate Americas Intelligence Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent protests in Los Angeles triggered by the Trump administration's immigration enforcement actions. They walk through the deployment of the National Guard, the legal implications surrounding the protests, the escalating tensions between state and federal authorities, the potenti
What Just Happened? An Unprecedented Ukrainian FPV Operation
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Karan Vassil to review the recent Ukrainian drone operation targeting Russian air bases, its implications for military capabilities and the potential impact on ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The discussion highlights the unprecedented use of first-person view (FPV) drones, the operational planning behind the attack and the subsequent ef
What Just Happened? Harvard spat, a Mega Bill and Trump's Shifting Middle East Policy
Today, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady for a different sort of episode. Together they discuss multiple significant political developments in the U.S., including the implications of a sweeping mega bill passed by the House, the Trump administration's conflict with Harvard University and shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of the meg
What Just Happened? Updates on the Russia-Ukraine Negotiations
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Layla Guest to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. They focus on recent developments, the contrasting positions of Russia and Ukraine, and the differing approaches of the EU and the US. They also explore the potential future of these negotiations and the role of China in the conflict.
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What Just Happened? The IDF's New Strategy in Gaza
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Noam Ostfeld (Principal Analyst - Middle East & North Africa & Turkey) to discuss the recent Israeli military strategy in Gaza, focusing on the intensification of operations and the implications for both domestic politics and humanitarian conditions. They explore the so-called 'Rafah' model, which involves holding territories for longer periods,
What Just Happened? The Canadian Federal Election
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady (Principal North America Analyst) to discuss the recent Canadian federal elections. Claire outlines the Liberal Party's victory under Mark Carney, the context of Trudeau's resignation, the influence of Donald Trump on Canadian politics, Carney's approach to US relations and the implications for Quebec and other political parties like the NDP
What Just Happened? J.D. Vance's Visit to India
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Shiza Abbasi, Sibylline's Principal Analyst for South Asia. Together, they explore J.D. Vance's visit to India, focusing on the implications for U.S.-India trade relations amidst ongoing tariff tensions. Shiza discusses the historical context of the visit, the domestic political dynamics in India, and the challenges posed by agricultural tariffs.
If y
What Just Happened? The Re-election of Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Alex Marciniak from the Latin America desk here at Sibylline to discuss the recent presidential elections in Ecuador. Alex explains the newly elected President Daniel Noboa, his policies and the ongoing security crisis in the country. Alex also highlights Noboa's approach to governance, particularly his security measures against organised crime, the econ
What Just Happened? The Ongoing US-China Trade War
Please note that this episode was recorded on April 9th, and further developments may occur. Stay tuned for future episodes!
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and his guest, Jonah Kaplan (Principal Analyst for Asia Pacific at Sibylline) delve into the escalating US-China trade war, examining the recent tariff increases and China's retaliatory measures. Jonah lays out the implications of these acti
What Just Happened? Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and Claire Brady discuss President Trump's recent tariff announcements. They explore the motivations behind these tariffs, their calculation, global reactions, and potential domestic economic implications. The discussion highlights the significant impact these tariffs may have on international trade relations and the U.S. economy.
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What Just Happened? The IDF's Latest Airstrikes on Beirut
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent IDF airstrike on Beirut, its implications for the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the potential perpetrators behind recent rocket attacks. They explore the recent historical context of the ceasefire, the dynamics of the current situation and the likely future developments in the region.
If you
What Just Happened? Canada's Snap Election
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate North America Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent political developments in Canada. Azul focuses on Mark Carney's decision to call for a snap election and the implications for the Liberal Party and its competition. The discussion highlights the shifting political landscape, the impact of tariffs, and the leading candidates' contrast
What Just Happened? The Arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent detention of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, the subsequent protests in Turkey, and the international response to these events. It highlights the political climate in Turkey under President Erdogan, the implications of İmamoğlu's arrest, and the reactions from civil society and fore
What Just Happened? IDF Tanks in the West Bank
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Principal Middle East Analyst Noam Ostfeld about the recent deployment of Israeli tanks in the occupied West Bank—the first such deployment in over 20 years—as part of an intensified military operation.
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What Just Happened? Violence in Catatumbo, Colombia
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Latin America Intelligence Analyst Alex Marciniak about the escalating conflict in Colombia’s Catatumbo region (Norte de Santander department). Alex explains the significance of Catatumbo as a major coca-producing region and a hotspot for drug smuggling across the Venezuela-Colombia border. He also describes how the National Liberation Army (ELN) has inte
What Just Happened? M23 Rebels Enter Goma
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst Ben Manzin to discuss the situation in Goma after fighting erupted between the M23 rebel group and the Congolese Armed Forces. Ben explains the situation in Goma, the actors involved, the impact the conflict will have on organisations operating in the area and the broader regional implications in the coming days and w
