Super-Macro Management
Super-Macro Management is a podcast that summarizes the most critical economic and financial news from major regions, focusing on how those developments affect markets and policy. Once a week it takes a detailed look at the fundamentals, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments. The show is aimed at listeners who want concise macro updates and actionable market insight.
Episodes
The Next Bond Rally Is One to Sell
The US Treasury is buying back $4 to 6 billion of long dated bonds at a time, against $5.4 trillion outstanding and $900 billion of new issuance every year. Jonny calls it a pea shooter pointed at a battleship. Bonds made last week’s front cover of The Economist, a cover with a record of marking turns. When everyone is suddenly worried about the long end, where does it go next?
The real test is t
What Now for Bonds?
France's deficit is heading for 5.4% this year, the government's plan to cut it to 5% is unlikely to survive the National Assembly, and a presidential election lands in April. French yields keep climbing, the two year Bund now yields 175 basis points less than Treasuries, and the VIX hasn't moved. The Nasdaq hit an all time high on Friday.
Jonny called the ten year breaking through 4.5% months ag
Get Used to a 5-Handle on Bonds
The 30 year Treasury yield traded above 5.5% this morning. The 10 year is now clean through 5%, a level that held as a ceiling for two years. Whatever was capping yields broke last week, and Jonny doesn't think it's coming back.
Behind the move sits a US economy still running hot. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate has Q3 growth tracking at 5%, powered by consumption growth above 3% and an AI-driv
The Fed's About to Outpace Everyone
The Fed hiked 25 basis points last week, and the market's answer was to rally. The S&P is up 3.5% since the meeting, the Nasdaq 4.5%. Retail sales control group spending jumped 1.4% in August against a forecast for half a percent. Whatever that hike was meant to do, it isn't slowing anything down yet.
That isn't the story everywhere else. The BOJ's own hawks are on their way out. Two doves have a
Buybacks Fail to Slow Bond Bloodbath | ft. Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors
Oil is up roughly 12% over the past week, hitting a US economy already at full capacity, 4.1% unemployment and payrolls averaging 106,000 a month. That's the kind of shock that turns into services and core inflation rather than fading on its own. Fed funds futures already price an 87% chance of a hike this week. The real question is what happens to the other 75 basis points still priced in after t
Bonds are a Trap
There is a generation of bond traders who have never seen yields this high, levels they would have dreamt of five years ago. The US deficit is running at 5.5 to 6% of GDP with the economy nowhere near a recession, and there is no political will in sight to fix it. That combination alone isn't the buy signal it looks like.Two live risks sit in front of this call. Wednesday brings the Treasury's buy
Warsh just backed himself into a corner
US interest costs have quietly climbed to around 18% of tax revenues, up from about 5% not long ago. At Jackson Hole, Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivered what looked like a near 180 degree hawkish pivot from his July meeting, sending the two year yield up 11 basis points in a day. The long end barely moved.
Jonny thinks the pivot has less to do with inflation than pressure from the Treasury. Scott Bes
Bessent’s Intervention Arsenal Lacks Firepower
The US national debt passed $40 trillion last week. Scott Bessent's response was to double the Treasury's bond buybacks, from $2 billion a time to $4 billion. Against $5.6 trillion of debt maturing in the 10 to 30 year bucket alone, that is roughly $100 billion a year, a fraction of what is actually coming due.
Elsewhere, Bessent has sold euros to buy yen to stop Japan selling Treasuries, tapped
Sovereign Bonds Can't Catch a Break
The data all pointed one way last week. Payrolls missed, CPI and PPI came in benign, retail sales underwhelmed across every single aggregate. Sovereign bonds caught a bid, then sold off almost immediately. When bonds cannot rally on their own good news, the problem is not the data.
The US interest bill has now overtaken the defence bill. Niall Ferguson's law says any great power that spends more o
The Yen Intervention Is Smoke and Mirrors
US payrolls fell by 23,000 in the latest print, with over 100,000 of downward revisions to the previous two months — and yet Treasury yields climbed. When bond markets rally on bad news and then give it all back, something deeper is going on.
Meanwhile, the much-publicised coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen — complete with a conveniently photographed "buy yen" note on the Treas
Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data
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Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty
In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consume
Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11
In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for F
The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10
In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, reveal
Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9
In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Feder
What Recession?!! - Episode 8
In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he arg
Financial Conditions and Market Reactions: A Conversation with Andy Constan - Episode 7
In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI
print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market,
highlighting the contrast between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors.
Johnny emphasizes the significance of real disposable income growth and
strong private sector wages. Stay tuned for a special guest, Andy
Constand, joining the conversation later in th
The S&P's Resilience Amid Softening US Economic Data - Episode 6
On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts showing the softening data against Treasury yields and the S&P, noting the disconnect between the S&P's strong performance and weakening economic indicators. Tune in to gain insights into the economic surprise index and what this shif
Joseph Wang's Take on Central Banking and Market Predictions - Episode 5
In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny
Matthews are joined by special guest Joseph Wang, also known as the Fed
guy. Joseph, a former senior trader on the New York Open Markets Desk,
shares his insights on the evolution of the Fed, the impact of
quantitative easing, and predictions for the future of the economy. The
discussion covers topics such as the Fed's role in
Analyzing the US Labor Market and Fed's Rate Cut Dilemma - Episode 4
In this episode of The Super Macro Management podcast, Elvis and Jonny
Matthews dive into the US labor market and the potential for rate cuts.
They analyze the recent payroll data, highlighting healthy gains in both
cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. With a decrease in unemployment, an
increase in average hourly earnings, and a rise in the working week, the
labor market report appears strong.
Has the Fed Lost the Plot on Inflation? - Episode 3
In this episode of Super Macro Podcast 3, Elvis and Jonny dive into the
topic of whether the Fed has lost the plot on inflation. They discuss
the Fed's recent decisions, including leaving interest rates unchanged,
raising inflation and growth forecasts, and the potential impact on the
bond market. Jonny believes the Fed has been too soft on inflation,
expressing concerns about the end of good
Navigating the US Market: CPI Data, Payroll Reports, and Fed Policy - Episode 2
On this episode of Supermacro, Jonny and Elvis discuss the recent
developments in the US market, including the CPI data and the non-farm
payroll report. Despite the unexpected CPI print and mixed payroll data,
Jonny maintains his view that the easing of financial conditions is
stimulating the economy in ways the Fed may not have anticipated. The
episode delves into the implications of Fed pol
Unpacking the Health of the US Economy: No Recession in Sight - Episode 1
In this episode of the SuperMacro podcast, Jonny discusses the health of
the US consumer and the absence of a looming recession. He delves into
charts showcasing the strength of the US economy, the impact of job
gains, wage growth, and household finances. Elvis and Jonny also touch
on the Federal Reserve's policies, inflation, and the future of interest
rates. Join them as they analyze market
