Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
Episodes
Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China's Swing Power
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research
Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memor
Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle
Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: Th
Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality
Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peac
Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI's Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction
Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Mar
Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing
Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic c
Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Mar
Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation
Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PI
Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market
Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Ma
Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan's Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly rank
Ep. 365: Stefan Jansen on Agentic AI, ML Workflows, and the Evolution of Machine Learning for Trading
Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investm
Ep. 364: William Beach on the US Fiscal Precipice, Tax Reform, and AI's Impact on Labour
William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties
Ep. 363: Martin Wolf on AI's Colossal Impact, Central Banking Risks, and the Democratic Recession
Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 'for services to financial journalism'. In this podcast, we discuss: AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology Market Complacency in the Middle East Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh The UK's Productivity Puz
Ep. 362: Dan Rasmussen on Private Equity's Stranded Assets, Private Credit, and the AI Bubble
Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, an investment firm with over $1 billion in assets under management across multiple asset classes. He is the author of The Humble Investor (2025) and American Uprising (2011). Prior to founding Verdad, he worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. In this podcast, we discuss: Investing as Meta-analysis
Ep. 361: Neil Dutta on the US Economic Outlook, Fed Policy Stasis, and AI's Role in Consumer Wealth
Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them. Prior to RenMac,
Ep. 360: Dirk Willer on Trading Global Macro Regimes, the End of QE, and Navigating Equity Bubbles
Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and a
Ep. 359: Dylan Smith on the Hormuz Supply Shock, US Macro Regimes, and Private Market Evolution
Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss: The Hormuz Supply Shock Stagflation as the New Base Case AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds A Hawkish Fed Outlook Canada's Productivity Pivot The USM
Ep. 358: Shawn Edwards on Engineering Trust in AI, The Bloomberg Way, and the Terminal's Future
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co., where he was a managing director in the c
Ep. 357: Andrew Perry on the Five Pillars of Global Macro, Liquidity, and Australia's Macro Risks
Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss: The Fi
Ep. 356: Tina Fordham on the Geopolitics Super Cycle, Iran's Oil Shock, and Trump's Global Impact
Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist, Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated in
Ep. 355: Phil Suttle on Oil Market Shocks, Inflationary AI, and the Fed's Hawkish Pivot
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact US Economic Stagnation and Populati
Ep. 354: Nader Itayim on Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold, GCC Tensions, and the Oil Market's Recovery
Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in C
Ep. 353: Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research
Ep. 352: Richard Schimel on Platform Evolution, Collaborative Culture, and Navigating Market Risks
Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry. Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge
Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris
Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The au
Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience
Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption
Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in C
Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach
Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics
Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity
Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financi
Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis
Alex Gurevich is the founder of HonTe Investments. After earning a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago, he leveraged his passion for strategic gaming into a lucrative Wall Street career. He has been hailed by The Wall Street Journal as the star trader of J.P. Morgan, where he served as Managing Director in charge of global macro trading and, in 2020, was leading HonTe's macro strate
Ep. 345: Marc Elovitz on Private Market Evolution, Crypto's Regulatory Shift, and AI Explainability
Marc Elovitz is Global Head of Investment Management Regulatory at McDermott Will & Schulte – a leading global law firm. Marc advises private fund managers on running their businesses consistent with all relevant laws, regulations and legal requirements. Marc's cutting-edge work also covers the latest trends of interest to private funds, including blockchain technology and digital assets. He advi
Ep. 344: Sean McGould on Multi-Strategy Investing, Trump 2.0, and the AI 'Digital Tool' Era
Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – an approximately $17 billion investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss: The Multi-Strategy Investment Approach The S
Ep. 343: Srividya Jandhyala on Changing Corporate Behaviour to Geopolitical Risks, and 'The Great Disruption'
Srividya Jandhyala is a professor of Management at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. Her research focuses on global strategy, geopolitics, and international business. She is the author of the best-selling book 'The Great Disruption: How Geopolitics is Changing Companies, Managers, and Work'. Before ESSEC, she was a Fung Global Fellow at Princeton University. She also served on the faculty of Ge
Ep. 342: Rory Johnston on Trump's Bullish Impact on Oil Markets, and the Bearish Risks Ahead
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research
Ep. 341: Phil Suttle on Trump's Populism, the Productivity Mystery, and Global Disruption
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: US Labour Market Dissonance Trump's "Elizabeth Warren" Populism The Productivity Mystery
Ep. 340: Robert Koenigsberger on EM Cycles, China's Turnaround, and the New Era of Private Credit
Robert is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy's Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee. In this podcast we discuss: EM
Ep. 339: Jay Pelosky on Tech Bubble (or Not), China vs. US, Clean Energy Plays
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss: Tripolar World (TPW) - regional integration in Asia, Europe, and Americas. Global g
Ep. 338: Ken Tropin on Talent Recruitment, Fed Risks, and Biggest Underpriced Trade
Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $20bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment indust
Ep. 337: Sangeet Paul Choudary on What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on AI
Sangeet Paul Choudary is the best-selling co-author of Platform Revolution and author of the new book Reshuffle. He has advised leadership teams at over 40 Fortune 500 companies—including Nestlé, ExxonMobil, Daimler, ING, and Booking.com—as well as pre-IPO tech firms. Sangeet currently serves as a Senior Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, and has spoken at global forums such as the
Ep. 336: David Dredge on Sharpe Ratio Fallacy, Capturing Upside and Managing Uncertainty
David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years' experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsible for the fixed income aspects of their volatil
Ep. 335: Marc Rubinstein on AI Bubble, Private Credit, Jane Street Rise
Marc Rubinstein is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In
Ep. 334: Mark Farrington on Dollar Dominance, China's Gold Play and Crisis Catalysts
Mark Farrington is a Global Macro and Geopolitical Strategist and author of the 'Watchtower Reports,' which cover topics ranging from geopolitical risk to Bank of Japan monetary policy to US dollar dynamics. He previously served as Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of the Macro Currency Group at Principal Global Investors, where he worked for fifteen years. Before that, he spent 17 years in
Ep. 333: David Samra on Value Investing, AI Returns, and Bad Management Teams
David Samra is a managing director of Artisan Partners – the $180bn global multi-asset investment platform. He is founding partner of the International Value Group, and portfolio manager of the Artisan International Value Fund, which he has managed since the portfolio's inception in September 2002. David has been nominated for the Morningstar International Stock Fund Manager of the Year Award six
Ep. 332: Miguel Gutierrez on Argentina's Transformation, Latin American Opportunities, and Private Market Arbitrage.
Miguel Gutiérrez is a Partner and Head of Private Markets, at The Rohatyn Group (TRG) - a global asset manager that specialises in emerging markets and real assets. Prior to joining TRG in October 2004, Miguel served as the Chairman and CEO of the Telefónica Group in Argentina and Chairman of Grupo Concesionario del Oeste S.A. He also served as the non-executive Chairman of YPF S.A. from April 20
Ep. 331: Gordon Hanson on US Manufacturing Fetishisation, Job Loss, and the Middle Class
Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Academic Dean for Strategy and Engagement at Harvard Kennedy School. He is best known for his research on the labour market consequences of globalisation, including pioneering work on the China trade shock. Hanson's current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional job loss, the effectivene
Ep. 330: Paul Cavey on US-China Trade War, Japan Politics and Taiwan Imbalances
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast we discuss US-Chine trade war escalation, state of China's
Ep. 329: Shiloh Bates on CLO Risks, Private Credit and Macro Read-Through
Shiloh Bates is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners. During his 20-year career, Mr. Bates has worked for several CLO managers and has been one of the largest investors in CLO securities. He wrote the book, CLO Investing with a focus on CLO Equity and BB Notes. He is also the host of the CLO Investor Podcast. In this podcast w
Ep. 328: Diane Coyle on GDP, Digital Gaps and Invisible AI Economy
Diane Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is the Research Director at the Bennett School of Public Policy. Diane's latest book is 'The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters'. Her own research focuses on productivity, the digital economy and AI policy, and economic measurement. She has been writing about the effects of digital technologies
Ep. 327: Ryan Hass on China's Patient Power Play, and US-China Relations
Ryan Hass is director of the John L. Thornton China Center and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at Brookings. He is also a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies. Ryan focuses his research and analysis on enhancing policy development on the pressing political, economic, and security challenges facing the United States in East Asia. Before Brookings, Ryan served
Ep. 326: Jon Turek on Fed Cuts, Recession Risks and Political Risks
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore capital. In this podcast we discuss whethe
Ep. 325: Chris Hughes on Misunderstood Fed Chairs, Fed Balance Sheet and Offshore Dollars
Chris Hughes is an economist and author who now serves as Chair of the Economic Security Project, a leading nonprofit advocating for economic power for all Americans. Chris was a cofounder of Facebook. He is the author of 'Fair Shot: Rethinking Inequality and How We Earn' and 'Marketcrafters'. In this podcast we discuss understanding market crafters that use state power to shape markets, importan
Ep. 324: Alberto Gallo on Western Debt Crisis, Real Assets and US Surprises
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast w
Ep. 323: Jonathan Xiong on China, Dollar and Using AI in Asset Management
Jonathan Xiong is the founder and CEO/CIO of Arrowpoint Investment Partners, a new Asia-focused hedge fund. Prior to starting Arrowpoint, Jonathan was the Co-CEO of Millennium Management Asia for five years. Before that, he was Head of Fixed Income Alternatives and the lead Portfolio Manager for the GS Global Opportunities Fund at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) for seven years. Prior to joi
Ep. 322: Rerelease – Adam Frank on Aliens, AI and Climate Collapse
Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described 'evangelist of science,' Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more. In this podcast we discuss public science communication and scientific denialism, intersection of science
Ep. 321: Antonio Del Favero on Favourite Rates Trades, Fed and Dollar
Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and G3 rates markets. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master's in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master's in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast we discuss the importance of financial conditions,
Ep. 320: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Weak US Growth, Fed Independence and AI Impact
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers labour's declining share of income; economic stagn
Ep. 319: Phil Suttle on Slowing US, Delayed Tariff Impacts and China Investment
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we discuss US labour supply problem, state of the US consumer and weaker growth, Fed policy, and much more.
Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China's Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy
Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where he worked on the resolution of several trade disp
Ep. 317: George Selgin on Trump Tariffs, Fed Independence and Dollar Vulnerability
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books. His latest is 'False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery, 1933–1947'. In this podcast we discuss re-interpreting the New Deal, parallels between Roosevelt (
Ep. 316: Kyle Keane on AI, Forecasting and Turning Blind
Dr. Kyle Keane is a Senior Lecturer in Assistive Technologies at the University of Bristol, where he leads research at the intersection of artificial intelligence, human cognition and assistive technology design. With a background in quantum computing and computational physics, he applies the scientific rigor of a physicist to studying human perception and the engineer's precision to designing tec
Ep. 315: Keyu Jin on What Everyone Gets Wrong on China
Keyu Jin is a global economist and author. She is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and Jardine Matheson. Born and raised in Beijing, she attended high school and college in the United States and holds a PhD in economics f
Ep. 314: Marvin Barth on Trump's US Resurgence, No Fed Cuts and Dire Europe
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and 'Seriously, Marvin?!' Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin does not have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Ma
Ep. 313: Tom Montag on the Undiscovered Potential of Carbon Markets
Tom Montag is the founding Chief Executive Officer of Rubicon Carbon. Tom has over 20 years of experience in financial markets. Previously, he was the Chief Operating Officer and President of global banking and markets at Bank of America. Tom was also a member of the company's executive management team, overseeing all businesses serving corporations, institutional investors and government entities
Ep. 312: Deepak Gurnani on Five Steps for Using AI in Investing
Deepak Gurnani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Versor Investments. He is the former CIO of Investcorp's Hedge Fund Group and was one of its founding members in 1996. Deepak was also a member of its Management Committee. He retired from Investcorp in March 2013. Prior to Investcorp, Deepak spent six years with Citicorp. In this podcast we discuss everyone talking about data being important g
Ep. 311: Ralph Sueppel on Quant Trading Macro the Right Way
Ralph Sueppel is Managing Director for Research and Trading Strategies at Macrosynergy. Previously, he was an Executive Member and Portfolio Manager at Graham Capital. During his tenure there, he created the Systemic Risk and Systematic Value Project (now Macrosynergy Research), a non-profit project dedicated to educating the broader financial community on the merits of socially responsible macro
Ep. 310: Helen Thomas on Trump's Controlled Demolition Strategy
Helen Thomas is the CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the US, UK and the EU. Helen has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. She was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Man
Ep. 309: Adam Frank on Aliens, AI and Climate Collapse
Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described 'evangelist of science,' Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more. In this podcast we discuss public science communication and scientific denialism, intersection of science
Ep. 308: Tobias Harris on Why Japan Matters
Tobias Harris is the Founder and Principal of Japan Foresight LLC. He has observed Japan as a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence and as a researcher at universities and think tanks. He is also Senior Advisor for Japan at Aurora Macro Strategies. Tobias is the author of 'The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan'. In this podcast we discuss how Japan became key US ally since WW2, why J
Ep. 307: Michael Sandel on Populism, Saving Democracy, and Tyranny of Merit
Michael Sandel teaches political philosophy at Harvard University. His writings – on justice, ethics, democracy, and markets – have been translated into more than 30 languages. His course 'Justice' is the first Harvard course to be made freely available online and on television, being viewed by tens of millions worldwide. Michael has served on the President's Council on Bioethics and is a member o
Ep. 306: Ken Rogoff on Dollar Decline, Debt Worries and Fed Independence
Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists and is an international grandmaster of chess. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the
Ep. 305: James van Geelen on 'Haves vs Have Nots' Theme, AI and Tariffs
James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative 'megatrends' poised to shape societies, economies, and the market's distribution of returns for years to come. In this podcast we discuss crossovers between emergency medicine and trading, importance of a beginner's mindset, humility, and learning from others, macro and micro equals
Ep. 304: Zongyuan Zoe Liu on Calculated China vs Unpredictable US
Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of 'Can BRICS De-dollarize the G
Ep. 303: Mirza Baig on Trump's Trade Strategy, China Risks and Canada's Dilemma
Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation. Mirza has worked at top-tier sell-side firms, including Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Point 72, a multi-st
Ep. 302: Vania Stavrakeva on Macro News, Investor Flows and Trading Markets
Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and their impact on equity, fixed income and exchange rate
Ep. 301: Andrew Polk on China's Bet on Tech Supremacy
Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board's China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft Fall in Chinese Growth (The Conference Board, 2015
Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University)
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most r
Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump's (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock
Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management (Ninety-One) managing assets across fixed income,
Ep. 258: Randy Schwimmer on Why Private Credit Is Performing
Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets. Randy also serves on the firm's Executive Committee and Senior Lending Investment Committee. Randy is also the Founder and Publisher of The Lead Left, Churchill's weekly newsletter reviewin
Ep. 257: Joe Lavorgna on Trump Supercharging US Growth
Joe Lavorgna is a Managing Director and Chief Economist for SMBC Nikko Securities. He was previously the Chief Economist for the Americas at Natixis. While there, Joe took a one-year leave of absence to serve in the Trump administration, where he was Special Assistant to the President, and Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Prior to Natixis, Joe spent 20 years with Deutsche Bank Sec
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