Reality Check is a podcast that cuts through the spin and explains the numbers behind the noise. Each episode features The Spectator's economics editor Michael Simmons and informed guests making a data-driven case on a story dominating the headlines. The show focuses on economic and political topics, providing clarity and insight into the most talked-about issues of the day.
Episodes
Why we are not in an AI bubble – yet
Is the AI bubble about to burst or is the boom only just beginning? As investors pile into AI stocks, tech valuations soar and central banks raise interest rates, comparisons with the dotcom crash are growing. But are we really heading for another market meltdown?To make sense of it all, Michael Simmons speaks to Giulio Bertini, a former European Central Bank employee and hedge fund trader – autho
Dan Neidle on Britain's most hated tax
Inheritance tax is one of Britain's most unpopular taxes – but why, when so few people actually pay it? Michael Simmons is joined by tax expert Dan Neidle, founder of Tax Policy Associates, to explore why the tax hits the middle classes while the super-rich often escape it. They discuss the Conservatives' plans to exempt family homes, the unintended consequences for the housing market, and
The Spectator's post-budget briefing – with Tim Shipman & Michael Gove
The Spectator’s editor Michael Gove, political editor Tim Shipman, economics editor Michael Simmons, economist and CEO of the Great British Business Council Catherine McBride and Harry Bell, director of financial planning at Raymond James, will give their insights into the autumn Budget, just hours after it is announced.This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into
LIVE: Healey's Budget – trick or treat?
Chancellor John Healey has just delivered his first Budget of the Andy Burnham premiership – but has he done enough to turn the economy around?In this special live edition of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons is joined by deputy political editor James Heale, former Treasury adviser – and Managing Director of Forefront Advisors – James Nation and pollster Scarlett Maguire – founder of
‘Devolution is not a growth plan’: Andy Haldane on Burnham, Badenoch & the Budget
Andy Burnham’s first Budget as Prime Minister is approaching – but higher borrowing costs have already made the sums more difficult. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane joins Michael Simmons to warn that Britain has little room left to borrow more.For this episode of Reality Check, Andy tells Michael what could be in next week’s Budget, why devolution alone is not a growth strategy
Fraser Nelson exposes Britain's welfare pipeline
Is Britain’s welfare state still a safety net or has it become a pipeline for long-term dependency? Almost one in ten six-year-olds are now categorised as disabled through the benefits system and, on current trends, that figure would rise to one in four 16-year-olds.Reality Check’s Michael Simmons speaks to The Times's Fraser Nelson – former editor of this parish – about his investigation into
LIVE: Why aren't Britain's young people working? | with Laura Trott
For this special edition of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons hosts a panel from Conservative Party conference on Britain’s growing NEETs crisis: the hundreds of thousands of young people not in education, employment or training. He is joined by shadow education secretary Laura Trott, the CBI’s Megan Bulford, Spectator commissioning editor Lara Brown and the CPS's Daniel Herring.
A history of the bond markets – with Robin Wigglesworth
Will the next debt crisis arrive as a sudden market rout – or is Britain already in the foothills of a slower one? Bond markets are back in the headlines, with every move in gilt yields read as a verdict on Westminster. Michael Simmons speaks to the editor of FT Alphaville Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt, about where bonds came from, who the 'bond vigilantes' really are, whet
LIVE: ‘Taxpayers are subsidising crappy jobs’ – TUC boss Paul Nowak
Michael Simmons is joined live at Labour conference by TUC general secretary Paul Nowak to discuss the state of Britain’s labour market. Are higher wages and stronger employment rights making it harder to hire, or are taxpayers subsidising too many low-paid, insecure jobs? They also discuss energy costs, social care, taxing wealth and banks, and Labour’s biggest mistakes in government.This episode
Labour doesn’t HAVE to raise taxes at the Budget
What is fiscal ‘headroom’ – and why does it matter? Michael Simmons explains how Britain’s fiscal rules really work, why changes in borrowing costs can wipe billions off the Chancellor’s buffer, and why losing headroom does not automatically mean another round of tax rises.This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financial expertise, that’s
The AI apocalypse is just good marketing
Some whistleblowers from the AI industry claim there is a more than 10% chance that artificial intelligence could wipe out humanity within a few years. A group of mostly Labour MPs has written to Andy Burnham calling for action on existential AI risk, while conceding there is little the British government can do about it alone.Michael Simmons speaks to John Power about the incentives behind the wa
Wealth tax debate LIVE: Arthur Laffer vs Aaron Bastani
Arthur Laffer, the economist, former adviser to Ronald Reagan and architect of the Laffer Curve, goes head-to-head with journalist and left-wing author Aaron Bastani over one question: should Britain introduce a wealth tax?Chaired by The Spectator’s economics editor and host of the Reality Check podcast, Michael Simmons, they debate whether a wealth tax could raise significant revenue, or simply
Budget 2026: who is left to tax?
With two months to go until Andy Burnham and John Healey’s first Budget, speculation about tax rises is already beginning. But how much should we believe?Michael Simmons looks at five facts about Britain’s tax system that should shape the debate – from a tax burden heading towards post-war highs to the surprising reality that taxes on the average worker remain relatively low. And with the wealthy
The ADHD boom: are we medicalising normal behaviour?
The backlash to Channel 4’s The Great ADHD Myth has reignited a fierce debate over how we diagnose ADHD – and whether that debate itself is becoming impossible to have.Michael Simmons looks at the extraordinary rise in diagnoses, the gap between recorded cases and underlying prevalence, and asks whether we are increasingly medicalising normal variations in behaviour.Is Britain finally recognising
Heatwave: the truth about Britain’s water crisis – and what it means for net zero
Britain is in the grip of another hot, dry summer, with hosepipe bans in force and fears growing about the country’s water supply. But are we really running out of water?Michael Simmons is joined by Reality Check reporter John Power to explain what is actually behind the shortages, whether Britain needs more reservoirs and why nationalising the water companies may not be the answer. They also ask
Britain’s AI problem isn’t data centres – it’s electricity
Britain wants to become an AI superpower – but does it have the electricity to power one? Data centres underpin everything from online banking and streaming to artificial intelligence, and demand for them is exploding. The government has designated them as critical national infrastructure and is promising billions of pounds of investment, but Britain’s ageing grid is already struggling to keep up.
Labour doesn’t understand business and it shows – with Oliver Shah
Oliver Shah is a former journalist at The Sunday Times and now runs Newcome Advisory. On this week's Reality Check Oliver and Michael discuss why Labour can't build trust with the businesses, how the National Insurance tax hike was the poison pill for the private sector and whether it is still worth being an entrepreneur in Britain today. This episode is brought to you by Alliance Witan investment
Social care reform: what the sector needs & what it doesn't – with David Goodhart
Andy Burnham has launched a major push to overhaul adult social care in England, seeking cross-party consensus for a new National Care Service. He has refused to rule out tax rises to fund the reforms. Michael Simmons speaks to the author and journalist David Goodhart about why social care should be reframed as prevention, whether salaries should be increased in social care and why the public isn'
Could women be the solution to Britain's prison problem?
Amid rising backlash over the early prisoner release scheme, Kemi Badenoch has called for emergency legislation to stop the plans going ahead. The new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has already halted the plans until a review has been conducted. The situation with prison overcrowding is a ticking timebomb – what options are available? To alleviate the risk, some suggest women should be prioritised as
The real problem behind Britain's homelessness & why Burnham won't fix it
Andy Burnham has laid out some of his top policy agendas for his premiership. Top of the list is to tackle homelessness – something the former Manchester mayor pledged to solve in Greater Manchester too, but the numbers have suggested the outcome was otherwise. What really needs to be done to fix homelessness in Britain? And how does his other policy of rent controls work against ending rough slee
Fact check: Rupert Lowe on Joe Rogan
Last week, the Joe Rogan Experience podcast released a two-hour interview with Rupert Lowe, leader of the Restore party. Was Lowe there merely to create content – or is Restore a serious political party? Some of his statements suggest it’s the former rather than the latter. The Spectator's John O'Neil wrote a piece for the website correcting some of Lowe's claims. He joined Michael Simmons on
The white working class ceiling, private schools & why Britain's failing – with Joanna Marchong
A report has suggested that white working class children are being failed by the education system that is 'not serving in [their] interests'. Burnham blames a lack of aspiration – but does this issue, like many others in Britain really stem from an overbearing state? Michael Simmons is joined by the Head of Communications and External Affairs at Onward, Joanna Marchong to discuss educational outco
Burnham's bid to bridge the North-South divide
Andy Burnham has laid out his plans to 'level up the North'. Something we have heard with almost every Prime Minister pledge to do – but with very little clarity over how this will be achieved and what success looks like. It's true there is a clear divide when it comes to economic outcomes between London and the North. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and discusses a left-wing levelling up
Labour's dilemma: is Burnham's economic agenda doomed?
With Andy Burnham set to replace Keir Starmer in Downing Street, Michael Simmons and John O’Neill take a look at what kind of economic agenda agenda may lie ahead, who the runners and riders are for Chancellor and why Labour’s economic policies have been so unpopular.This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemi
DEBATE: is Starmer right to ban social media for under 16s?
Keir Starmer has announced his plans to ban social media for under 16s in Britain. The ban is due to come in early next year and include all main social media apps. Age-recognition and digital ID checks will be used to keep children away from social media. But when it comes to child safety, will it make a difference? And what are the unintended consequences of a ban? Michael Simmons challenges The
How corporate woke sent Pride broke
For years, Pride month has been an unmissable fixture in the corporate calendar. But recently, many of the world’s biggest brands appear to be quietly backing away – toning down campaigns, dropping rainbow logos and retreating from the culture wars. The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons looks at why corporate Pride is losing its commercial appeal. Is this a genuine shift in public opini
Can you trust your spouse with your finances? Plus Britain's longest divorce. With Alice Wright
Nicola Sturgeon has claimed she was deceived by her ex husband Peter Murrell who pled guilty having embezzled tens of thousands of pounds of SNP money. Financial infidelity has become a top reason behind couples divorces. The Times Alice Wright joins Michael Simmons on Reality Check to discuss.This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please cl
Price caps are pointless – why Reeves is wrong to attack supermarkets
The government have rolled back on plans to impose price caps in supermarkets. Was Reeves wrong to go after them for price gouging? Michael Simmons has the data. This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for more information on our fund range please click here https://www.artemisfunds.com/ .This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are wit
Trump's tariffs & Mamdani's New York – can anything destroy America's economy?
Is the US economy immune to harm? It has been tested this year under Trump's trade tariffs, and inflation fears. Kate Andrews, former economics editor of The Spectator now opinion journalist at the Washington Post and host of the Make it Make Sense podcast returns to Spectator TV with Michael Simmons to discuss the US economy, whether Mamdani is as bad as Zack Polanski, Andrew Bailey vs Kevin Wars
How to revive industrial Britain: SDP leader on British steel, the entitlement state & a Farage pact
As Keir Starmer's government implodes, the Prime Minister has outlined his vision to regain support – one of which is to nationalise British steel. Michael Simmons is joined by SDP leader William Clouston to discuss the case for nationalisation, how Britain has become the entitlement state and how the SDP can cut through to the public.This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund Managers, for mo
Council budgets are financial black holes – what's the point in voting?
May local elections have finally arrived. As 5,066 seats are contested in local councils many are wondering whether there is any point in voting at all. These councils manage budgets worth hundreds of millions of pounds – budgets decided by national government. Given the amount of statutory spending on areas like SEND and care homes, there is very little room for change inside local government. Mi
Polanski slams the 'war on drugs' – here's why he's wrong about legalisation
Britain has recorded the highest drug deaths in Europe. Green Party leader Zack Polanski has declared that this means the so called 'war on drugs' is not working, and favours a more liberal approach of legalisation. Michael Simmons is joined by John Power to look at the numbers and show why Polanski would likely make drug deaths rise under his policy.This episode is brought to you by Artemis Fund
Don't believe the headline: the truth about unemployment data
Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.9 per cent this week. Some in government may been using this to mark a healthy economy but don't believe the headlines. Whilst unemployment may be down, economic inactivity is up. And figures show its predominately graduates who are struggling to find work. Michael Simmons looks at the data and explains why youth employment is in crisis, and why the government c
How the leasehold mafia screwed a generation of homeowners
Buying a flat in Britain has increasingly become a fool's errand, driven in part by the leasehold system trapping homeowners into flats. When Labour wrote their manifesto they promised reform to the leasehold system, but it remains a sticking point in Westminster due to heavy lobbying. Michael Simmons is joined by Harry Scoffin, founder from Free Leaseholders who makes the case for the common hold
Benefits Britain exposed: are you paying for someone else's day out?
Britain has become a freeloader’s paradise. A working family of four will fork out £111 for a trip to the Tower of London, or £108 to visit London Zoo. With one parent on Universal Credit (UC), however, that drops to just £4 and £26 respectively. Welfare-advice websites expose how the public sector is ‘geared permanently to making welfare an increasingly attractive way of living’. Those on welfare
Could the Iran war wreck your mortgage?
What has the war in Iran got to do with Britain’s house buyers? Michael Simmons takes a look at conflicting predictions from economists and the markets on the impact rising oil prices could have on interest rates. 2026 was expected to be one of the best years for first-time buyers to finally get on the property ladder. Now it looks as if Trump’s war could bring that to an end. But there is a small
Energy bailout? Why Britain can’t afford a cap on household bills
Today Rachel Reeves promised ‘support for those who need it most’ as she updated MPs on measures the government is taking as the Iran war risks increasing energy bills. Michael Simmons is joined by Spectator writer Ross Clarke to discuss why energy bailouts won’t work, why Reeves is unfair to pile the blame on Liz Truss and understand the complexities behind a means tested method to target those t
Britain can have AI or Net Zero – but it can’t have both
Yesterday Rachel Reeves gave her Mais lecture and said UK would achieve ‘fastest AI adoption in the G7’. Today govt is publishing its position on AI rules that are crucial for keeping AI startups in the UK and not losing them abroad. Michael Simmons uncovers the data that shows just how costly of Britain's energy resources this plan for an AI revolution would be. And how incompatible this is with
This oil crisis could be the worst we've ever seen – former Trump economist Tyler Goodspeed
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel as the war with Iran intensified over the weekend. Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude oil flows, how hard will we feel it back in Britain? And why has Britain left itself so vulnerable from its energy policy? Michael Simmons is joined by former advisor to Donald Trump Tyler Goodspeed to discuss why thi
Reality Check live: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers the Spring Statement
Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves had been looking forward to today’s Spring ‘forecast’ statement, which was designed to be the lightest-touch intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in 2018: no OBR scoring of her fiscal rules, no tax announcements, no major policy changes and, crucially, no months of damaging speculation about black holes or gilt yields in Britai
SEND madness: Britain faces 'ruinous costs' from over diagnosing children
Why are one in five school children classified as special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in 2026? The rates of children being diagnosed with neurodiverse conditions have scaled to disproportionate rates and the costs are a major concern for the government. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and explores why devolution has provided some kind of a solution. This episode is brought t
Debt bomb: the £100 billion problem nobody talks about
There is an area of public spending nearly double what Britain spends on defence, more than policing borders or our streets. It's servicing the costs of what Britain has borrowed in the past. The growing debt bomb is continuing to climb with real consequences for the taxpayer. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and speaks to the economist Paul Johnson about what political measures the govern
Keir Starmer has done nothing for Britain's young
This week Keir Starmer faced the greatest challenge to his premiership yet. What will this Prime Minister will be remembered for? Policies which hurt young people. From student loan debt crisis, tax thresholds, ISA allowances and the pensions triple lock, what hope is there for young Brits? Michael Simmons has the data. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into
Peter Schiff on the dollar: America's bust is the world's boom
Michael Simmons speaks to American economist Peter Schiff about the surge in gold prices, the weakness of the US dollar and why he believes the next major economic crisis is approaching. Schiff argues that recent dips in precious metals are a buying opportunity, warns that years of low interest rates and money printing have created a 'bubble economy' and explains why he thinks cryptocurrencies are
Why the housing crisis is far worse than Labour wants you to believe
Housing minister Steve Reed has been boasting about Britain’s housing market since Labour came into office – but is he right to celebrate? The country’s housing crisis seems to be delivering the worst of both worlds. Young people trying to get on the property ladder are being priced out by stubbornly high costs, while older homeowners looking to downsize find themselves trapped, with too few buyer
Andy Burnham’s bond blip, scrapping the OBR & why Rishi Sunak deserves more credit – James Nation
When Andy Burnham put forward his bid to stand in the Gorton & Denton by-election, the bond markets wobbled. What does this say about the state of Labour and their reputation with the markets? Michael Simmons speaks to former Treasury and Downing Street advisor James Nation about Labour leaders and fiscal policy, why Rishi Sunak was right on inflation and what he has learnt in the private sector s
SNP budget: the smallest tax cut in history
The SNP announced their budget last week promising to cut taxes for low income earners. Could this be the smallest tax cut in history? Michael Simmons has the data. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financial expertise, that’s the power of personal. Investment involves risk.raymondjames.uk.comBecome a Spectator subscriber today to ac
Who's to blame for Britain's water crisis?
Thousands of homes across the South East have been without water for four consecutive days. South East Water’s record on water supply interruptions is one of the worst in the sector. Ofwat, the regulator, has placed it in the bottom three companies for disruptions each year from 2020 to last year. What has happened to the water industry in the past decade? And would nationalisation fix it? Michael
Could Britain's migration crisis already be over?
Reform UK may be leading in the polls on a mandate to hit net zero migration – but could this come sooner than Nigel Farage may think? Michael Simmons returns to Reality Check to explain what's really going behind Britain's migration figures. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financial expertise, that’s the power of personal. Investm
2025: a year of tears, tariffs & taxes
Michael Simmons reflects on some of the economic highs and lows of 2025. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financial expertise, that’s the power of personal. Investment involves risk.raymondjames.uk.comBecome a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Sp
Electrify everything! Octopus boss on Britain's energy problems
The Spectator’s Michael Simmons in conversation with Greg Jackson, CEO & Founder of Octopus Energy and non-executive member of the Cabinet Office BoardThis episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financial expertise, that’s the power of personal. Investment involves risk.raymondjames.uk.comBecome a Spectator subscriber today to access
Why Wes Streeting is right about junior doctors
Junior doctors, now known as resident doctors, will strike from December 17 to 22, which Wes Streeting has said will 'wreck Christmas'. The doctors are demanding a 26 per cent salary rise over the next few years to make up for the erosion in their pay in real terms since 2008 – this is on top of a 28.9% increase they have had over the last three years. Michael Simmons takes a look at their claim o
Are thousands of kids really living in poverty?
The Chancellor laid our her plans to scrap the two-child benefit cap in the Budget last week. Previously Rachel Reeves and the Prime Minister were against lifting the cap, but pressure from Reform and the back benches meant the government u-turned. The Resolution Foundation has backed this policy, arguing that it will help lift children out of poverty. But is this based on dodgy data? Michael Simm
Christopher Snowdon: the truth about Ozempic, obesity & the NHS
Lifestyle economist Christopher Snowdon joins Michael Simmons to explore how weight-loss drugs like Ozempic could reshape health, policy and the economy. From the WHO’s call for mass production to flawed obesity cost estimates, failing ‘nanny state’ interventions and the future of food companies, Snowden argues that these drugs are a genuine game-changer — and warns that much of current public hea
Rachel Reeves’s Budget is a shambles
As Budget days go, today was unprecedented. The complete list of measures announced by Rachel Reeves – along with their costings and economic impacts – was leaked by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) an hour before the Chancellor took to her feet. The OBR apologised and called it a ‘technical error’. The headline is tax hikes to the tune of £26 billion, income tax thresholds will be froze
Benjamin Disraeli to Rachel Reeves – how each Chancellor drank their way through the Budget
Rachel Reeves is due to deliver her budget this Wednesday. Throughout the years, the only person permitted to drink inside the House of Commons is the Chancellor. What has been the tipple of choice for each Chancellor dating back to Benjamin Disraeli? Michael Simmons and James Heale drink their way through the ages, discuss the historical context of each budget, and question whether Rachel Reeves
Why British business is doomed to fail - and how to fix it | Entrepreneur Luke Johnson
Entrepreneur and investor Luke Johnson joins Michael Simmons to discuss what is going wrong for Britain's business. From soaring taxes and the Employment Rights Bill to net-zero regulation, planning failures and the rise in economic inactivity, Johnson argues the UK is becoming hostile to entrepreneurs — and warns that many are already leaving for good.This episode is brought to you by Raymond Jam
Rory Sutherland: Britain isn’t working – here’s how to fix it
Advertising legend and Spectator columnist Rory Sutherland joins Michael Simmons to explain why he thinks Britain’s economic problem isn’t income, tax rates or even inequality — it’s property, rent extraction, and a national belief that housing is the safest and smartest place to store wealth.This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our financi
Datageddon: Britain's stats have become dangerously unreliable
Britain is facing a quiet crisis — its data is breaking down, and the government’s numbers are increasingly unreliable.In this episode of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons asks what happens when the state can’t count properly. How can the Bank of England set interest rates or the Treasury balance the books when the data they rely on is wrong? And why are so many “official” statistics
Is Brexit to blame for Britain’s economic doom loop?
Rachel Reeves is preparing for her first major Budget – but is Brexit really to blame for Britain’s black hole?Host Michael Simmons speaks to independent economist Julian Jessop about the OBR’s productivity downgrade, Labour’s tax plans, and whether Reeves is right to point the finger at Brexit.This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into who you are with our finan
The rich are leaving Britain – and making you poorer
Are the rich fleeing Britain? That's what the numbers suggest, but some activist groups have hit back that the data is dodgy. For the second episode of Reality Check The Spectator's economics editor Michael Simmons explains why the data shows that the wealthy are leaving Britain, and why this matters for everyone else. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into w
Arthur Laffer: Britain is taxing itself to death
Reality Check, The Spectator’s new data-driven show hosted by economics editor Michael Simmons, kicks off with a big name: Arthur Laffer. The man who taught Reagan to cut taxes tells Michael why Britain’s economy is 'disappearing', why the Bank of England shouldn’t exist, and why he still believes low taxes – and a little optimism – can send Britain 'to the moon and the stars.'This episode is brou
Reality Check – Trailer
Introducing... Reality Check – the new podcast from The Spectator – that cuts through the spin and explains the numbers behind the noise. In each episode, The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons and in-the-know guests will make a data-driven case on a story hogging the headlines. Follow to never miss an episode. This episode is brought to you by Raymond James. Combining deep insights into
