Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

Does Britain Really Need £35bn of Tax Rises? Oct 16, 2026 2533 Does the UK need £35bn of tax rises at the 2026 Budget? The IFS Green Budget says Chancellor John Healey is £35bn short ahead of his first Budget on 28 October. Neil Woodford says the number rests on an interest rate nobody actually forecasts. The Office for Budget Responsibility builds its own forecasts for UK growth, wages and inflation. For interest rates, it takes whatever the bond market happ

Stamp Duty Has Quietly Doubled. That's Why Britain Stopped Moving Oct 2, 2026 2054 Stamp duty on a typical UK house move has roughly doubled in 20 years without a single rate rise, and the number of homeowners moving house with a mortgage has more than halved. The government's new Your First Home scheme is aimed at first-time buyers. Neil Woodford and Jon Adair show why first-time buyers are the part of the housing market that is working, how frozen stamp duty thresholds and pos

Britain Borrowed £3.5bn Too Much. So Why Did Borrowing Get Cheaper? Sep 25, 2026 1933 UK gilt yields fell on the day Britain found out it had borrowed £3.5bn more than planned. So what is really setting the cost of UK government borrowing? Neil Woodford and Jon Adair look past the "Truss moment" headlines at what gilt investors are actually pricing: inflation, the oil price and the war in the Gulf. Neil revisits his April call that the Iran war was already over and says what he got

AI Could Take Your Job by 2030. Where Does The Money Go? Sep 18, 2026 2372 Will AI take your job? Anthropic's economic scenarios model says AI could make the US economy 30% bigger by 2030 and put 1 in 5 knowledge workers out of work. Neil Woodford runs the model live and shows who gets the money when AI does the work. In this episode of The Noise Cancelling Podcast, Jon Adair and Neil Woodford break down Anthropic's 2030 AI economy forecast: three scenarios for AI and th

UK Inflation Will Stay at 3% — Here’s Why the Market Is Wrong Sep 4, 2026 2290 UK inflation is falling while oil is up 35% and gilt yields are at an 18-year high. Neil Woodford explains why the 4-5% inflation forecasts are wrong again, what is actually in the CPI basket, and why the bond market may be pricing the wrong story. The Telegraph says British inflation hits 4-5% by Christmas. The Bank of England, the City and the academic economists said the same thing in March, wh

Britain’s Productivity Crisis: A Great Deception? Aug 28, 2026 1921 Is the UK's productivity crisis actually real? The ONS has quietly admitted its Labour Force Survey overstated UK employment, and the HMRC tax data tells a completely different story about the UK economy, your taxes and interest rates. In this episode, Neil Woodford explains what the tax records really show about UK productivity, why the official survey invented half a million workers who don't ex

The 7 Decisions Every Investor Faces (Part 1) Aug 21, 2026 1947 Neil Woodford has been answering questions about investing for 35 years – and every one of them comes down to seven decisions. In part one of this three-part series, Neil and Jon Adair cover the funnel: the three decisions that take you from every company in the world down to a shortlist worth owning. You'll learn why reported profit tells you almost nothing about whether a business is any good, t

One Banking Rule Locked a Generation Out of Housing. What Happens When It Goes? Aug 14, 2026 1702 Britain's housing crisis is a myth. Neil Woodford has run money for over 35 years, and in this episode he tests the UK housing market's most repeated story against 55 years of data: mortgage payments as a share of take-home pay are close to their long-run average, buying costs less per month than renting the same home, and real house prices have been falling for five years. So why can't young peop

Britain Doesn't Have an Inequality Problem Aug 7, 2026 2050 Is UK wealth inequality actually rising? Wes Streeting calls inequality "the fracture running through modern Britain", and the coming budget leans on the same story. Neil Woodford has spent weeks in the data, and it says something very different. In this episode, Neil and Jon work through what the official numbers show: the top 10 percent's share of British wealth was 56 percent in 1980 and 57 per

140 UK Data Centres Are Queuing for Power That Doesn't Exist. Here's Where the Money Goes. Jul 31, 2026 708 The UK has announced $59 billion of data centre investment since 2023, and the National Grid cannot power it. 140 data centres are sitting in the connection queue asking for 50GW; the UK's peak demand this year was 45GW. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Jon explains how the grid connection queue actually works, and Neil Woodford explains why he believes this is an energy policy failure decades

UK Interest Rates Are Heading Below 3% — And the New Prime Minister Can't Stop It Jul 24, 2026 2576 Neil Woodford says UK interest rates are heading below 3% next year, and the new Prime Minister has almost nothing to do with it. The consensus says Britain has a structural growth problem. The data says something different: the UK economy is waiting on one number. In this episode, we explain who actually buys Britain. Households account for roughly 60p of every pound of UK GDP, and since the pand

The People Who Got This War Wrong Set Your Interest Rate Jul 17, 2026 2576 Neil Woodford on the war the market refuses to price. Missiles are hitting the Gulf, America is back at war, and the S&P 500 finished the week up 1%. The institutions that modelled this conflict predicted catastrophe. The market looked at the same war and said no. One of them is wrong. Jon and Neil unpack the biggest forecasting failure since Brexit: how the IEA, the Bank of England and the EI

London Isn't Dying — It's On Sale. Here's Where To Look Jul 10, 2026 1966 UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep disco

Three Central Banks Made the Same Mistake in One Week Jul 3, 2026 2393 Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing. Jon and Neil mark Neil's December calls honestly (the wins and the misses), then get into the mechanics: why p

The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation Jun 5, 2026 2498 Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price. Jon Adair and Neil Woodford take apart the Financial Times' "end of cheap" argument and make the case that three of the most powerful deflationary forces in modern hi

Why Britain Can't Build a Trillion Dollar Giant May 29, 2026 1884 This week, a single American memory chip company became worth more than AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell combined. So why has Britain never built one of its own? Neil Woodford has spent more than 30 years as one of the largest shareholders in some of Britain's biggest companies. He was a top-five holder of GSK for over a decade. He helped see off Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca. He's sat across from board

The AI IPO Wave Is Coming May 22, 2026 2155 SpaceX has filed for IPO. OpenAI and Anthropic are next. The biggest AI listings in history are about to hit US markets — together worth more than the entire FTSE 100. Most of the coverage frames this as confirmation that the AI boom keeps running. Neil Woodford's view is different: the trade may already be more concentrated than investors realise, and where the money flows from here is the questi

Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It) May 15, 2026 2174 This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story. Neil Woodford disagrees. In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil walk through why the 30-year gilt is the wrong number to look at, why the 10-year — which has been moving in lockstep with US treasuries sin

Forget China. Europe Is The Imbalance That Could Drag Britain Down. May 8, 2026 2296 Forget China. The biggest economic imbalance in the world right now is between America and Europe. In 2008, the EU was the same size as the US. Today it is 41% smaller. This week, Neil Woodford and Jon Adair go through the €220bn surplus the financial press isn't covering, the European savings paradox Brussels can't explain, and why a Labour push to rejoin the EU would be one of the worst economic

The blockade is working. The cartel is breaking. Oil is going down. May 1, 2026 1867 Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once. Underneath this week's headlines, two mechanisms are working against the prevailing narrative. The blockade of Iran is doing exactly what it was designed to do — Iranian storage is filling, wells wi

Britain's Energy Shock Won't Break the Economy — Here's What Will Apr 24, 2026 2154 Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis. In this week's Noise Cancelling, Jon and Neil break down why the consensus is panicking about the wrong thing. The energy shock everyone is worried about? Absor

The Iran War Is Already Over — Here's Why Apr 17, 2026 2304 Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect. The US naval blockade of Iran began this week. Iran has approximately 13 days of oil storage capacity. After that, wells must shut down — and in mature oil fi

The Stagflation Panic Is Wrong — Here's What's Really Happening Apr 10, 2026 2757 In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening? In this episode, Neil Woodford and Jon walk through four structural deflationary forces that were pushing prices down before the Iran conf

Three Ways This War Ends (One Of Them Is Very Bad) Apr 3, 2026 2621 The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we're giving you a framework for what happens next. In this episode, Neil Woodford lays out three scenarios for how the Iran war ends, assigns a probability to each, and explains what each one means for oil prices, interest rates, and your money. One

Britain's Energy Policy Is Making You Poorer Mar 27, 2026 1961 The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. British factories pay four times more than American ones. And Britain just banned exploration in the same North Sea basin where Norway is actively drilling. In this episode, Neil Woodford explains why Britain's energy policy isn't just expensive — it's self-defeating. Industry is relocating to China, where it runs on coal

Every Oil Shock Is Followed by a Recession. But Not for the Reason You Think Mar 20, 2026 2217 A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself. We call it the "double brake." The oil shock hits the economy first. Then the central bank raises rates on top. Two brakes on an economy alread

Why Investors Are Selling Their Best Stocks Right Now Mar 13, 2026 2285 UK banks were the best-performing sector on the London Stock Exchange last year. Housebuilders had been climbing since September. Then the rate cut trade reversed in less than two weeks. In this episode, we dig into what's actually driving the sell-off in UK domestic stocks — and whether the market has it right. We cover a 40-year-old behavioural finance concept called the disposition effect that

War in Iran — The 5 Principles That Stop You Panic Selling Mar 6, 2026 2626 War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do? In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in the UK — shares the 5-principle framework he uses to make investment decisions during a geopo

The Price of Perfection: Why Expensive Markets Break First Feb 27, 2026 2496 Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns. You’ll also see why high P/E do

The UK Market Tailwind Almost Nobody Is Pricing In Feb 20, 2026 2388 UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks. In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in British investing history — breaks down why he believes UK consumer spending is about to

How Britain Broke Its Own Stock Market Feb 13, 2026 2112 This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies. The same institutions that have almost entirely abandoned British equities are now queuing up to fund Google's AI ambitions for the next century. In the same week, the London Stock Exc

$1 Trillion Gone From Software Stocks. Here's What It Means For Your Pension Feb 6, 2026 2481 $1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down: Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought

Why UK Investors Need to Rethink Dollar Exposure NOW Jan 30, 2026 1929 Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy. We discuss whether the dollar is really dying, if gold and silver are in a bubble, and why the "picks and shovels" approach to AI investing is finally paying off. Plus: why UK equities rema

How I'm Investing in 2026 (What If I'm Wrong?) Jan 23, 2026 3239 Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, we dig into the psycholo

103 Economists Are Wrong About The UK (Here's the Data) Jan 9, 2026 3405 In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth." Neil thinks they're wrong. Again. In this episode, we stress-test Neil's thesis against the consensus view. We cover: - Why the same economists who were wrong in 2025 are maki

How to Build a Winning 2026 Investment Strategy Dec 12, 2025 3586 Neil walks through his big calls for 2026: the AI industrial revolution, whether China is really “uninvestable”, why he thinks the EU is still a story of missed opportunities, the hidden fragilities in the US, and why he believes the consensus on the UK remains far too gloomy. We cover: How AI, energy and productivity could shape growth and markets in 2026 China’s outlook after years of pessim

Is the US financial system more fragile than it looks? Dec 5, 2025 2692 US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t). Jon and Neil stress-test the popular “2007 again?” narrative and separate market panic from actual plumbing risks. Neil pushes back on the idea that today’s private credit story is a straight replay of subprime, arguing the parallels a

The Most Leaked Budget in History: But Will It Work? Nov 27, 2025 2372 Rachel Reeves' second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work? Neil Woodford and I discuss what she actually did, what she could have done and what the impact of her changes will be on the UK economy and the UK stockmarket. If you're an investor in UK equities, this episode is for you. And if you'd l

Are We All Doomed or Just Being Misled? Nov 21, 2025 2390 Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors. This week’s headlines say it’s all over: • AI is a bubble or even a Ponzi scheme • The

The AI Lie: Why Investors Are Getting This Completely Wrong Nov 14, 2025 2369 Are AI valuations out of control? Are investors blindly following the Mag7? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down the real risks in the AI boom, why the S&P 500 is more concentrated than most people realise, and why he believes the consensus has completely misunderstood this moment in markets. Neil explains why he still questions the valuations of the largest AI compan

The Chancellor's Big Lie About Britain's Economy Nov 7, 2025 2215 Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy. He

Can it last? Nvidia’s dominance, Trump’s truce and cheap UK stocks Nov 7, 2025 1304 Nvidia just became the world’s first $5 trillion company, but can that kind of dominance really last? In this week’s conversation, Neil Woodford explains why he believes valuation is the financial law of gravity—and why even the strongest markets eventually have to obey it. Neil also answers quick-fire questions on the Magnificent Seven, the hype around AI infrastructure, and whether markets have

Is now the BEST time to buy cheap UK stocks? Oct 24, 2025 1868 Is Brexit really dragging down Britain’s economy and the stock market, or is there more to the story? Valuations in the UK stock market are low so is now the right time to invest? For a limited time only, join W4.0 with the discount code "PODCAST" to receive 30% off your first subscription. More details at: https://www.w4pz.com/landing/welcome-var1/ In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil Woodford di

The Truth About Buying Stocks at High Valuations Oct 17, 2025 2636 Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil's Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK. The conversation also touches on the ongoing trade tensions wi

Are we heading for catastrophe? Oct 10, 2025 2404 Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.

Are we in an AI bubble? And will the UK need an IMF bailout? Oct 3, 2025 2568 Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he's positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

Trump flips on Ukraine, PIMCO joins the doves, $4T AI boom Sep 26, 2025 2271 Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, Neil shares his perspective on Donald Trump’s surprise shift on Ukraine and what it signals for geopolitics and markets. We cover the growing clash over drug pricing in the UK and why major pharma companies are pulling back investment. Neil also explains why he agrees with PIMCO that UK inflatio

FED cuts, BOE holds. Tiktok saved? $250Bn to the UK. Sep 19, 2025 1902 In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.

Pharma Walks Out, Red Tape Gone Mad, Oracle Skyrockets Sep 12, 2025 1723 Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s most significant market stories. In this episode, Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for

Bond Yields, UK Sector Performance & China's Resurgence Sep 5, 2025 1877 This week, the finance world has been anything but calm. Neil Woodford takes us through a story of unexpected market moves and the ripple effects across sectors and continents. Find out what’s really going on and why it matters to you. This podcast is for information and education purposes only. Nothing here should be considered investment advice.

UK Gilt Yield Hysteria, France in Crisis and Nvidia Earnings Sep 2, 2025 1379 Join Jon Adair and Neil Woodford for this week’s W4.0 Weekly Roundup, where they unpack the surge in UK 30-year gilt yields, debunk the so-called “UK hysteria,” explore France’s political and debt crisis, and analyse Nvidia’s latest earnings and what it means for the AI boom.

Ukraine Peace Talks, UK Inflation Data & Stamp Duty Farewell? Sep 2, 2025 1394 Neil and Jon catch up to discuss the week’s biggest stories — from Trump’s peace push in Ukraine and the knock-on effects for defence stocks and oil, to the ONS’s data delays, the latest UK inflation figures, and what it all means for markets. Neil explains what these developments reveal about the economy, the risks policymakers face, and what we should be watching in the weeks ahead.

Strong UK GDP, US Rate Cut Pressure, Wind Farm Madness Sep 2, 2025 1570 Neil and Jon catch up to dissect the week’s biggest market stories — from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time. Neil explains what these developments mean for the economy, and policy — and look ahead to what cou

Tariffs, Rate Cuts and AI Spending Sep 2, 2025 1314 This week on W4.0, Neil Woodford breaks down the biggest market stories shaping his investment strategies. From Trump’s latest tariff move against India and the Bank of England’s rate cut, to a major UK court ruling for banks and huge AI spending plans from the tech giants, Neil shares his take on the political, economic, and company news that matters.

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