This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
This Is Not A Drill is a weekly podcast hosted by former BBC News presenter Gavin Esler, exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East. Alongside Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals, the show dives into dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation and ruthless realpolitik. The podcast is produced by Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker, and supported via Patreon for early access and bonus content.
Episodes
Space, Russia and China – How war is expanding beyond Earth
Space is now an essential part of military planning and operations. Recent reports suggest Russia and China have discussed targeting Starlink satellites, highlighting their increasing importance in conflicts. Are ‘space wars’ no longer science fiction but part of military planning? Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the implications and the dangers of this new potential battleground is Dr Mark H
Putin is running out of soldiers – but that won’t stop him
As Russian casualties mount in brutal frontline assaults on Ukraine, Putin’s recruitment is growing ever more desperate. With international sanctions biting and Ukraine’s own campaigns targeting critical Russian infrastructure - can Putin sustain his war? Can he find the manpower – or can he afford it? To discuss the latest from Russia, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow
Xi outsmarts Trump – How America’s Iran failure is empowering China
Donald Trump’s failing war on Iran has emboldened China. Beijing is trying to build relationships to counter Washington, as it looks to fill a vacuum in power globally left by the United States as it shifts its geopolitical strategy. Gavin Esler is joined by Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, to discuss how China is trying to capitalise on America’s failings.&nb
Reign of Tehran – Inside the new Iranian regime
Just days into the Iran conflict, strikes had taken out much of the country’s military leadership. Yet the conflict continues with a new regime installed in Tehran. With the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei unseen since the outbreak of war, who is really in charge now? And as peace negotiations continue to stall, what drives Tehran’s decisions?
Gavin Esler discusses the latest from Iran with P
Inside Zelenskyy’s military turmoil
A week of turmoil within Ukraine’s armed forces has seen protestors take to the streets and a chaotic series of changes at the very top of military command.
What comes next for the future of Ukraine's defence, after a week of damaging political upheaval? And what does it mean for Zelenskyy’s military strategy?
Oz Katerji is joined by Jimmy Rushton, special correspondent at the Kyiv Indepen
Is the “True European Army” coming? – Macron, France and the future of European defence
European security is in a state of crisis that would have been hard to imagine when Emmanuel Macron took office as French President in 2017. What happens when a President whose term has been so dominated by the threat of Russia, the fate of NATO and fears for Europe’s independence comes to the end of his term? Fresh from the NATO summit, Macron turned his final Bastille Day into a statement of Eur
Inside the NATO conference – A breakdown from Ankara
As member states gathered for the NATO conference in Ankara this week, leaders faced a series of questions over the future of the security alliance.
As President Trump flew into Turkey criticising allies over spending commitments and their support in the Iran conflict, could they rely on the US commitment to NATO any longer? And with Russia’s war on Ukraine ongoing, and the looming threat t
Expensive Lessons – What America vs Iran taught us about modern warfare
The United States’ war with Iran is a reminder that it’s easier to start a war than to end it.
Many other lessons from the conflict are also being analysed right now, from how relatively low-cost weapons change the economics of war, to how even a far-away war can affect all of us in our daily lives.
Dr Neda Bolourchi, Middle East historian and nonresident fellow with the Institute for Global Aff
Ukraine Strikes – Is Russia’s war machine faltering?
Ukrainian drone swarms have hit targets in major Russian cities, while disrupting its military assets and vital oil supplies. Could this be a turning point in the war more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began?
Gavin Esler is joined by John Lough, senior research fellow at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre and associate fellow in the Russia Eurasia programme at Chatham House.
Trump’s Iran deal — Does it reveal a US divide with Israel?
News of the framework for a peace deal between Iran and the United States - if it holds - might be the beginning of the end of a conflict that has unsettled not just the Middle East and the world economy but also Washington’s relationships with its allies.
Even if President Trump claims some kind of victory in Iran - with stories about arguments and possible rifts between Trump and Israel’s Prim
Germany braces for war – Can rearmament secure Europe?
Germany is rearming as the Russian threat looms over Europe and much of the continent’s security rests on its success. Backed by an emergency ‘Zeitenwende’ fund and an ever-expanding defence budget, Germany is undertaking a profound military transformation with the aim of becoming Europe’s strongest conventional army. What does this mean more broadly? And where do they need to focus?
Jörg Lau, fo
Xi and Putin – What do they really want from each other?
Beyond the pomp and pageantry of Vladimir Putin’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, what do Russia and China need from each other? And how strong is their relationship? Plus, coming hot on the heels of Donald Trump’s own Beijing visit, what does it mean for the geopolitical balance in an era of great power competition?
Gavin Esler joins Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and edit
Order vs. Chaos – Who is thriving in a world of crisis?
In a new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard argues that we have entered an age of ‘un-order’ – when the rules and norms of the international order no longer hold sway.
Can democratic leaders find a way to meet the challenges of an era of widening conflict, geopolitical competition and political
All guns blazing – How the arms trade went into overdrive
As drones and missiles darken the skies above conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, is a transformation in modern warfare leading to a new arms race? And as technology and tactics evolve, which weapons and defence systems are being bought, and who is buying them?
Gavin Esler discusses the realities of the arms trade in 2026 with Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher in the Arms Transfers Program
Drone masters – How Ukraine reinvented modern warfare
Putin thought that Ukraine would quickly fold under a massively superior Russian onslaught. Instead, the War has seen Ukraine reinventing itself as a world expert in drone warfare, exploiting cheap replaceable tech and digital networks to strike deep and painfully into Russia. Ukraine now leads the world in the air defence expertise required in today’s conflict zones – and nations across Europe an
Poison arsenal – The deadly return of bioweapons
Though Saddam Hussein tried to develop them and North Korea is accused of stockpiling them, biological weapons have been considered taboo for decades. Theoretically they’re banned. But intelligence agencies and military leaders are increasingly warning of wider clandestine programmes to develop deadly mass toxins, and A.I. is lowering the barriers to entry dramatically. As governments scramble to
Inside Russia’s web of terror – How Kremlin proxies wreak havoc across Europe
Acts of sabotage and arson spreading across Europe are persistently connected to Russia. Gavin Esler is joined by Shaun Walker, the Guardian's central and eastern Europe correspondent, to discuss the Kremlin’s shadow warfare network and the chaos state-sponsored terror is causing across the continent.
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America against the World Part 4 – The New Normal?
The final episode of a four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… This time: International leaders cling to the idea that Trump’s violent overthrow of the world order and embrace of raw power will prove temporary. But what if it isn’t? What if we’ve entered a new age where might makes right? And after Iran and Venezuela, is there any coherent vision behind America’s new foreign policy – or is it j
America against the World Part 3 – Who will fill the Power Vacuum?
A four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon.
How will we cope with the end of the Pax Americana – and what comes next?
This time: As Trump flips the table and walks away from America’s old international role, China want to take advantage. The People’s Republic is squaring up to the US on multiple fronts – economic, technological, cultu
America against the World Part 2 – Is Washington pulling the world apart?
A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon.
How will we cope with the end of Pax Americana – and what comes next? Gavin Esler dives deep into a harsh new era of international relations.
In this second episode, has Trump broken the trust-based world order – or just exposed it? Are we building a hostile world of fortresses? What wou
New Mini-Series – America against the World – Part 1: There are No Rules Any More
A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon.
Trump’s reckless war on Iran was the culmination of a year of aggressive rhetoric and scorn for allies from the White House. It also cemented a new American ethos: the United States will do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, without concern for friends and allies. The Atlanticist nightm
America against the World - trailer
A brand new four-part mini-series from This Is Not A Drill...as we face the end of Pax Americana, what comes next?
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China vs America – Who will be the soft power superpower?
As America turns against the world, China is seeing more and more opportunities to grow. Its soft power influence is growing and cultural influence is blooming globally. How is this happening and what impact will it have? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, to discuss.
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After Iran, A New Age of Terror?
America’s war on Iran has triggered deadly consequences across the Middle East, with attacks on oil supplies causing a global economic shock. Now, as authorities investigate terror-related violence and sabotage in the US and Europe, are we headed for a new era of terror similar to what followed America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? And in a world critically dependent on digital infrastructure, h
Iran vs. the Gulf – Is there any going back to normal?
Facing aerial bombardment and the economic shock of an oil crisis, the Gulf States have found themselves on the front lines of war in the Middle East. As missiles and drones attack oil and civilian infrastructure, how will Iran’s neighbours respond to the latest major escalation in long-term regional rivalry? And what are the consequences for the stability and prosperity of an entire region?
Gavi
Trump says he wants to end the Iran war. Can he?
Donald Trump has claimed he will choose when the Iran war is over – but does he really have that choice?
Faced with Iranian retaliation and a conflict spilling out across the Middle East, what is in his control and what isn’t? And as Iran’s regime continues to attack US allies in the region, closing the Straits of Hormuz with global economic repercussions, is the US administration stumbling into
Despatch from Beirut – Oz Katerji reports as Trump's Iran war rocks the Middle East
The US/Israeli war with Iran has led to a wave of conflict across the Middle East.
In Lebanon, missile attacks on Israel from Hezbollah militants have been met with an Israeli assault – which has led to hundreds of deaths and more than 750,000 displaced from their homes.
Reporting from Beirut, Oz Katerji talks to Lebanese political writer and organiser Karim Safieddine. They discuss the future
Trump's Iran doom spiral – Where does this end?
Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli attacks, widening the conflict across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, is Donald Trump risking the kind of endless war he campaigned against? And for Iran, how long can its regime last in the face of the assault, and what does its retaliation risk?
Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI.
Trump’s deadly Iran gamble – Emergencycast with Paul Salem in Beirut
Trump’s stunning surprise attack on Iran could be the most consequential world event since 9/11. Will the President’s goal of smooth regime change work when it failed every other time, or trigger a regional conflagration? Iran’s hated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead but the Islamic Republic is showing no sign of collapsing. And now Hezbollah has attacked other Arab states as well as British an
Does Putin really think he can still win in Ukraine?
It has been four years since the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Does Vladimir Putin still believe he is leading Russia to a military victory, or is he now banking on winning at the negotiating table?
Gavin Esler talks to Samuel Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King’s College London.
You can read more from Professor Greene at his Substack, TL;DRussia.
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Friend or foe? – Do Rubio's words in Munich change anything for Europe?
What a difference a year makes - or does it? The 2025 Munich Security Conference was shocked by divisive words from the US Vice President JD Vance. But at this year’s gathering, Marco Rubio represented America and struck a more conciliatory tone. What does this mean for Europe? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr. Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss.
Adv
AI vs. The World – Can we handle the threats of artificial intelligence?
Artificial intelligence is playing an increasing role in all our daily lives – and handing over power to AI comes with many risks. From misinformation and disruption to autonomous war technology, can we handle the dangers? Gavin Esler talks to Alex Hern, AI writer at The Economist.
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The Winter War — How Ukraine is facing Russia’s cruelty
As temperatures plummet in Ukraine, Putin’s military is continuing to target the country’s power supply, leaving civilians suffering as the war continues toward a fifth year.
With the diplomatic crises and international flashpoints of recent months dragging attention away from Ukraine, what are the prospects for the coming year, both on the battlefield and in the stalled peace process? Gavin Esle
Xi's world – Will China control the future?
For years Xi Jinping has mapped out a strategy for the rise of China as a superpower. How will this ambition shape the world’s future?
In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler talks to Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove senior fellow the Hoover Institution, about China’s plans in a series of ‘frontier domains’, from the bottom of the sea to outer space.
Read Elizabeth Economy’s artic
Rage against the regime – Will Iran's government fall?
A wave of protests has swept Iran and been met by a brutal crackdown. Could this mark the end of the ruling regime?
Thousands have been killed and the government faces a continuing backlash, growing economic crisis and Trump’s threats to take military action against the nation.
Gavin Esler is joined by Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the Universi
Destroyer in chief – Is Trump breaking the world?
So far in 2026, self-described peacemaker Donald Trump has captured Nicolas Maduro in a Special Forces raid in Venezuela and now has his eyes on Greenland.
To discuss the realities of the Trump administration’s foreign policy and US politics in the year of the midterm elections, Gavin Esler is joined by Bill Kristol, editor at large of the Bulwark and former chief of staff to Vice President Dan Q
Trump, Venezuela and 2026 – A new era of chaos
Trump’s New Year attack on Venezuela and the capturing of President Maduro shocked the world.
In the first of a series of episodes assessing the biggest security issues in 2026, Gavin Esler talks to former UK national security adviser Peter Ricketts about the year to come, the consequences of Trump’s Venezuela raid and the risks of a new era of great powers carving up the globe.
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2025 has already shaken the world. What’s next?
The geopolitical shocks of 2025 have the potential to reverberate for decades to come. Trump’s America first agenda and the new US national security strategy risk European unity, security and the rise of far right politics; Trump's trade wars have served to increase the pressure on states looking to balance relations with the US, China and also a rising India, and Israel’s assaults in Iran, Gaza a
Critical Mass – The new battle for energy supremacy
As the world pivots from fossil fuels and demand for electricity rises, who will control the new levers of power? The critical minerals and rare earths that tech depends on are the ultimate resources in a new “Great Game” between China, the US, Europe and Russia. What does the race to control the supply of these minerals mean for the future of the environment, security and global competition?
To
Russia-Ukraine deal – Can anyone force Putin to change course?
Trump’s push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine looks as far away as ever after failed talks this week – can anyone move Putin closer to a realistic agreement?
To make sense of the US-led peace process so far and how a potential deal might realistically be achieved, Gavin Esler is joined by Steven Pifer, former US ambassador to Ukraine, an affiliate of the Center for International S
Trump on the world stage – Deal maker or faker?
Donald Trump claims a record of peace agreements spanning from Asia to the Americas. Do these claims hold up?
What can we learn about Trump’s efforts to resolve conflicts, and can his deals hold and achieve lasting peace? And what does his transactional approach mean for global security and America’s role in the world?
Emma Beals talks to Richard Haass, former advisor to both Bush administrat
War on the world – Are conflicts leading us to climate oblivion?
As conflicts and tariff wars disrupt the global order, is political division preventing urgent action to protect the planet?A decade ago world leaders gathered at COP 21 in Paris to discuss the climate crisis - 194 countries signing a breakthrough agreement to limit global warming. By this year, as COP 30 meets in Brazil, the 1.5 degree target on global warming has been breached.
Joining Gavin Es
Can we stop the fall of Europe?
The European Union has some hard choices to make. It’s faced with an aggressive Russia on its borders, a US administration with limited enthusiasm for the NATO alliance and political divisions in its member states. Behind all this lies deep uncertainty about the coherence of the Union and its economic future in a world economy increasingly dominated by the US and China. What can be done to protect
Europe's drone wall – Could it hold back Russia?
A series airspace violations by Russian jets and drones have increased tensions over European skies – could a new ‘drone wall’ now protect Europe’s Eastern flank?
With plans announced for a new aerial defence system to protect Eastern borders, how would a drone wall work, and can the EU and NATO deliver on promises to improve Europe’s defences?
In today’s episode, Oz Katerji talks to Justin
Big Tech, A.I. and the dictators – Inside the future of authoritarianism
What will happen when dictators realise just how useful big tech and the data it gathers could be for them? How is this already happening – and how could it expand, as A.I. ramps up the way draconian governments can use tech? Bruce Schneier, a renowned cyber security expert, best-selling author and co-author of Rewiring Democracy How AI Will Transform Our Politics, Government, and Citizenship join
The Populist Playbook – How does the right wing connect globally?
The rise of right-wing populism has changed politics across the world.
From the proliferation of CPAC conferences across the globe to attacks on institutions and political rivals, does a populist playbook pose a threat to democracy? And how can we resist the rise to power of authoritarian leaders worldwide?
In today’s episode, Gavin Esler is joined by Catherine Fieschi, fellow at the Robert Sch
China and Russia vs. You — Inside the new cyber war
Cyber attacks are on the rise and the threats impact us all. Which countries are leading these moves and how can we combat them?
Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre says that the UK faced four ‘nationally significant’ attacks a week on average in the past year. It adds that China poses a "capable" cyber threat, "targeting a wide range of sectors and institutions across the globe’, and highli
Gaza Peace Plan explained – Everything you need to know
A US-led peace plan has brought renewed hopes that an end to the conflict in Gaza may be in sight. But as talks in Cairo continue over the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and disarmament of Hamas, what are the prospects for a lasting peace settlement?
Gavin Esler discusses the latest with Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent for The Ec
What happens if China wins over Russia and India?
Trump’s foreign policy means the United States is leaving a vacuum in world affairs – and China looks increasingly willing to fill it.
Following the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin last month, what is the real nature of Xi Jinping and China’s expanding but complex international relationships, including those with Narendra Modi in India and Vladimir Putin in Russia?
In t
Trump backs Ukraine – What does this mean for Zelenskyy and Putin?
In a dramatic shift over the war in Ukraine, Trump took to Truth Social this week to declare his belief that Ukraine can win back its territories.
Will Trump’s change in stance last, and will the shift in rhetoric lead to a change in policy from the White House?
To discuss a dramatic week at the UN General Assembly meeting and the latest from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine, Oz Katerji is
Trump's economic warfare – Are there any winners?
Trump’s economic policies have caused chaos globally and he’s made it clear he’s happy to use America’s financial might against his enemies – or help his friends. But, when it comes to security, who is this actually helping?
In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill – we ask,how do tariffs and inflation in the US impact global security? Emma Beals is joined by Adam Posen, the president of t
The Gen Z protests – Inside Nepal’s ‘Discord revolution’
How did Nepal’s ‘Discord revolution’ spark so quickly and bring in a new national leader chosen by online poll?
On the 8th of September, a group of young Nepali gathered in Kathmandu to protest a social media ban they saw as a heavy-handed crackdown against an anti-corruption movement. A week later, the government has fallen, more than 70 people lie dead after protests were infiltrated by viole
‘A cascade of dreaded events’: The conflicts reshaping the Middle East
Israel’s targeting of Hamas in Qatar has further escalated the crisis in the Middle East, and follows Benjamin Netanyahu’s evacuation order for Gaza City as Israeli forces prepare to send in occupying forces.
Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the latest from the Middle East. and whether the Arab states in the region may play a part in defusing this endless conflict, is Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow
Russia, Poland and drones – What next for Putin and Europe?
NATO jets have scrambled to shoot down Russian drones after what Polish military command has called an ‘unprecedented violation’ of its airspace.
As Europe reacts to Russian aggression crossing into NATO airspace and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk invokes Article 4 of the NATO treaty, Gavin Esler is joined for the latest from Warsaw by Ian Garner, assistant professor at the Center for Totalit
Trump, Putin and Xi – Conflict or collusion?
As conflicts and tariff-led trade wars fracture an international order forged at the end of the Second World War, have we entered an era of great power competition?
Joining Oz Katerji today to discuss whether the rise to prominence of autocratic ‘strongman’ leaders marks a new landscape of great power contest is Stacie Goddard, Professor of Political Science at Wellesley College.
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Is China unstoppable? – How Beijing is fighting to own the future
China is upping its pace in a race to dominate the world of technology. What will Beijing’s quest mean for its rivalry with the US and how will it shape the future? Gavin Esler is joined by Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, to discuss China’s ambitions.
Buy Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund Th
Special edition: Ukraine at the crossroads – with Kyiv’s ex-foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba
As details, claims and counter claims emerge after Trump’s long-promised peace talks, Ukraine’s future remains in the balance.
In this special 100th of edition of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses a week of crucial diplomacy with Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s minister for foreign affairs from 2020 to 2024.
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Trump, Putin and the fate of Ukraine – Where next?
After a frantic week of international diplomacy, where has the Trump-Putin summit left the prospect of an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine?
Following Trump’s red carpet welcome for Putin in Alaska, European leaders scrambled to join Volodymyr Zelenskyy for further talks in Washington. With details still unclear on a host of negotiations, from land swaps to security guarantees, sanctions and even a
Trump, cartels and the war on fentanyl
The highly potent opioid fentanyl is a major cause of death in the US – and the global trade of the drug is also a cause of growing geopolitical division.
Trump has claimed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are targeting the supply of the drug; his China tariffs have complicated efforts to stem exports of the ingredients needed for its production, and fractures among cartels pushing fentanyl could we
Iran vs. Israel and America – What next after the 12 day war?
After the 12 day war, which saw Israel and the US bomb Iran and its nuclear facilities, where next for the Iranian regime?
Questions remain over the Tehran regime’s ability to stay in power after decades of tensions in the region exploded on Iranian soil in June, its strategy of ‘forward defence’ left in ruins following Israel’s attacks on Iranian-aligned militia groups. Will Iran now continue
Why are peace deals so hard to reach?
Why is it so difficult to end wars and what makes peace settlements
so likely to be rejected? These questions echo across the globe in an era of conflict and political division, with attempts to broker peace settlements in Gaza and Ukraine dominating headlines but so far remaining out of reach.
Historian Margaret MacMillan is Professor at the University of Oxford and the author of numerous bo
How Putin stole Russia's future
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a generation of young Russians hoped for a better future of economic prosperity and personal freedom. Yet three decades later Russia has invaded Ukraine and is isolated from the Western world.
What happened to the dreams of the perestroika generation, and what does Russian society think about Putin’s war and his grip on power?
In the latest episode
Trump’s Putin ultimatum — Can he force an end to the war?
Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine looks to be changing, with his decision to send new weapons to Ukraine and a 50-day ultimatum for Vladimir Putin to halt Russian attacks.
But will Trump’s threat of ‘severe’ sanctions decisively impact Russian’s war economy and force Putin to a lasting ceasefire?
Gavin Esler assesses Trump’s ‘major statement’ on Russia with Mark Galeotti, historian, w
Appetite for corruption – How Trump is letting kleptocrats destroy the world
Trump has opened the doors to kleptocrats the world over as he launches a new era of corruption the likes of which we’ve never seen. Oliver Bullough, writer of the Coda Story newsletter as well as the author of Butler to the World: How Britain Became the Servant of Tycoons, Tax Dodgers, Kleptocrats and Criminals, and Moneyland, has long been following the corrupt ways money moves around the globe.
Inside the battle for truth – with Bellingcat’s Eliot Higgins
From ‘alternative facts’ to political lies to the disinformation that courses through social media, the ‘post-truth’ phenomenon threatens the foundations of democracy.
Politicians and ideologues are ramping up mistrust in our institutions using unchecked digital media. How can we hold onto democratic guardrails in a world shaped by politically-driven deceit and manipulation?
Eliot Higgins is th
Iran-Israel ceasefire – Will Trump's truce hold?
Out early due to the fast moving situation...
The ceasefire announced by Donald Trump has seemingly brought an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Yet with the ceasefire almost immediately broken by both sides according to the latest reports, will the truce last? And what can America and allies do to hold peace in a fragile Middle East?
Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Julie Norman, pro
Israel-Iran — Will Trump drag America into the conflict?
As Israel and Iran continue to trade attacks, what role will the US play in attempting to bring the crisis to an end - and might it be dragged into the conflict?
As Donald Trump weighs up his options – either to force Iran into committing to giving up its nuclear programme, or potentially deploy US bombers and bunker busting bombs to hit Iran’s underground nuclear facilities – the prospect of A
‘Rising Lion’ – What Israel’s onslaught on Iran means
Israel’s unprecedented attack on over 100 targets in Iran – including nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military leadership – has stunned the region. But what does it mean? As Iranian state TV reports the deaths of key regime figures, and nuclear scientists, supreme leader Ali Khamenei promises heavy retaliation for “Operation Rising Lion”. Trump meanwhile warns “it will only get worse” for I
Shadow war – Can Britain face down the Russian threat?
Launching the UK’s latest strategic defence review, Keir Starmer pledged renewed spending on defence and vowed “everything we do will add to the strength of NATO”.
Yet as NATO secretary general Mark Rutte calls for members to increase spending further to five percent of GDP on security, are Britain and its allies doing enough to secure the alliance’s future and deter the threat of an expansioni
Aerial assault – How drones changed warfare forever
More than three years since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, warfare has been transformed by drones.
Reports have stated that 70 percent of combat casualties in the war in Ukraine are now caused by drones, while the British security think tank RUSI calculates drones account for 60 to 70 percent of damaged and destroyed Russian systems.
Ukraine, forced to innovate to hold off Russ
Operation Spiderweb – How Ukraine stunned Russia and changed the war
Ukraine’s daring drone attack Operation Spiderweb has stunned Russia with its stealth, precision planning and the damage it unleashed on warplanes based deep within Russian territory.
Gavin Esler is joined from Kyiv by This Is Not A Drill co-host Oz Katerji, to discuss the impact of an operation planned meticulously over the past 18 months – and what it means both for the war and the nature of a
Israel-Gaza – Will anybody stop Netanyahu?
The continued assault of the Israeli armed forces amid a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has drawn global criticism. Yet the question remains – who will intervene to end the conflict and restrain Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu?
Donald Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East saw the US President looking to broker deals in the region - including the potential for a new deal with I
Eastern flank – Why Poland is crucial to Europe's defence push
With questions raised over Europe’s defence capabilities, Poland is one of the key nations insisting the continent needs to bolster its security.
This March the European Commission announced an €800bn plan to boost continental defence. But is Europe doing enough? Gavin Esler discusses the view from Poland with Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala from the Faculty of Political Science and Inter
Trump's Syria shift – A pivotal moment for Damascus and the Middle East?
Trump’s shock announcement that he would be lifting economic sanctions on Syria has sparked celebrations in the streets of Damascus.
What are the consequences for the recovery of a nation rebuilding its state and infrastructure after more than a decade of civil war? And following the announcement in Riyadh after a meeting between Trump and Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, what does it me
Kashmir crisis – Can India and Pakistan come back from the brink?
As the crisis across the India-Pakistan border escalates, can the conflict be brought back from the brink?
To discuss the latest from the region and the wider context of a deep-rooted interstate rivalry, Gavin Esler talks to Christopher Clary, associate professor at University at Albany, State University of New York, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of The Difficult Politics o
Ukraine mineral deal – What it means for Kyiv's fightback
Ukraine and the US have reached a long-awaited agreement on a deal over American access to Ukrainian mineral resources. What does this mean for Ukrainian resilience in the fight against Russian invasion – and for a US-Ukraine relationship strained by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House?
Oz Katerji discusses the mineral deal and the economics of the war with Tymofiy Mylovanov, President
A taster of CRIME SCENE, our new podcast – Episode 1: Guns of London
As a follower of This Is Not A Drill, we thought you might like to try our brand new, not-entirely-dissimilar podcast CRIME SCENE. Every week ex-Met Police Commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe and former Mirror editor Alison Phillips lift the lid on how criminal investigations really work.
In our debut episode: The horrific shooting of an innocent nine-year-old girl in Dalston in 2024 laid bare bitte
Trump vs. the global order – How can the world rebuild without America?
The first 100 days of Trump’s second term have left the rest of the world facing the challenge of maintaining a global order without American leadership at its core.
What comes next is the subject of ‘Order Without America, How the International System can Survive a Hostile Washington’ – a recent Foreign Affairs article by the founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Professor of
Ukraine peace talks – What happens if Trump walks away? – with Luke Harding
Donald Trump famously said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But now, he’s suggested the US might “pass” on peace negotiations – unless rapid progress is made. So, what does that mean for Ukraine, three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion?
After a week of statement and counter-statement in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimi
Bottom dollar – How Trump gave up America's grip on the global economy
Amid the shocks created by Trump’s tariff policies, are we also seeing a kind of American economic self-harm – which threatens the long-standing dominance of the US dollar?
Gavin Esler talks to Harvard Professor of Economics and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff, whose new book Our Dollar, Your Problem looks at the rise of the US currency and shows why its future i
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