The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
This podcast features the MUFG Global Markets Research Team discussing the week's most significant topics affecting economies and financial markets. Listeners get expert analysis of current market trends, economic outlooks, and geopolitical developments. Each episode focuses on issues that are important for investors and policymakers. The show provides clear, professional insights into global market dynamics.
Episodes
US dollar to stay firm as volatility rises
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk with Simon Mayes, Global Client Sales about the rates market positioning after the inflation data this week and what the potential FX impact could be moving forward. Derek also discusses the Korean won volatility and the Indonesian rupiah following the MSCI announcement. The discussion closes off
Is the coast clear for further USD strength?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the key data releases and events in the week ahead for the USD.
Are short-term economic fundamentals aligned for further USD strength?
Are spillovers for the FX market from the global bond market sell-off getting bigger?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the FX market is being increasingly impacted by the global market sell-off. How are FX option flows changing in response to renewed fragmentation risks in the euro-zone?
Fixed Income contagion risks
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss FX Corporate Sales to discuss the implications of the huge sell-off in fixed income over recent weeks. Derek highlights the growing risks of the selling in fixed income spreading to risk assets and FX carry could suffer as well. There is also a discussion
US dollar upside risks – the Fed, BoJ & BoE
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined today by Nicolaus Jan Thiesen in FX Sales in Duesseldorf to discuss the latest developments in the financial markets. It was a busy week, so Derek provides an updated US dollar view following the rate hike by the FOMC this week. The USD/JPY move at the end of the week following the BoJ rate hike is also d
How is the bond market sell-off impacting the FX market ahead of next week’s BoJ & Fed policy updates?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss potentially spillovers for the FX market from the accelerating bond market sell-off. How will upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings impact the JPY and USD?
Are fundamental drivers falling into place for a stronger JPY?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss what has been behind the JPY’s recent rebound and whether it is likely to continue. In addition, they discuss the outlook for ECB policy ahead of next week’s meeting.
From USD debasement fears to a Fed policy rethink
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss FX Corporate Sales to discuss the key takeaways from the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Derek also discusses the fleeting USD debasement focus following the UST bond buyback announcement earlier in August and the implications of the speech b
MUFG US Strategy August 2026 Jackson Hole Preview - A pitstop on the path to no hikes (Podcast Edition)
Joining us in this special podcast, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy and Agron Nicaj, MUFG’s US Desk Economist preview what to expect from the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The Macro Strategy team see 3 potential options that Warsh can take when delivering his opening remarks, all with different market implications. The team also covers their latest macro thinking and how its driving
USD downside risks as Washington hits USD sentiment again
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Shan Husain in FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout for the US dollar following the US Treasury announcement of increase UST bond buybacks on Wednesday. The dollar drop over the four weeks covering Japan/US FX intervention is the largest since the period following the Liberation Day announcements last
What has been driving USD/JPY after last month’s intervention driven gains?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss why the yen has quickly given intervention driven gains over the past week. In addition, they discuss the resilience of the UK economy to the negative energy price shock and impact on BoE policy.
US joining JPY intervention matters but policy & fundamentals matter more
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with James Roulston in FX Institutional Sales to discuss the FX and rates impact following the much weaker than expected US jobs report. Derek also outlines the implications for USD/JPY following the joint intervention last week and highlights using historic examples why joint intervention matters but pol
What’s next for USD/JPY after this week’s sharp correction lower?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the fallout for the FX market from this week’s Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings. How have the latest developments impacted the outlook for USD/JPY?
UK fiscal risks and BoE outlook in focus
Elizabeth Wren, European Political Analyst, sits down to speak with Henry Cook, Senior Economist, to talk about recent developments in the UK economy. They discuss new PM Andy Burnham’s policy platform and how much fiscal flexibility there may be for his proposals, as well the outlook for the upcoming Bank of England meeting amid renewed energy price pressures.
Why have higher energy prices failed to trigger a stronger USD?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss what has been driving a weaker USD over the past week. In addition, they discuss if recent GBP outperformance will continue now that Andy Burnham has been confirmed as the new Labour leader.
Policy Shifts and Market Risks: Japan, Inflation, and the Fed
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to speak with James Roulston in FX Institutional Sales to discuss the latest FX/Rates themes. Derek discusses the implications of Japan Finance Minister Katayama ‘s comment on encouraging households and pension funds, including GPIF to invest in domestic markets. This marks a potentially significant shift
How much further can the USD strengthen?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss what has been driving FX markets recently including UK political risk and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and the US. Will the USD continue to strengthen?
FX Crosscurrents: The Impact of Global Central Bank Decisions
After a busy week of central bank meetings, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Nico Jan Thiesen, Global Client Sales to discuss the implications for the FX markets. The Fed meeting impact on the dollar, the BoJ impact on the yen and the BoE impact on the pound are discussed as are the implications for EUR cross currency risks given th
A pivotal week for the USD?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how building investor optimism over a US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed Chair are likely to impact the USD. Will another BoJ rate hike be sufficient to trigger a reversal of JPY weakness?
Stronger Jobs, Stronger Dollar: What It Means for EUR/USD, ECB, and the BoJ
The much stronger than expected US jobs report has had the obvious impact with front-end rates and the dollar stronger. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Chris Jakubowski, FX Institutional Sales to discuss the impact of the data going forward. How does this impact EUR/USD with the ECB expected to hike on 11th June? Has ECB pricing be
Ceasefire deal and divergent policies
Reaching a deal to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is now largely priced. Brent crude oil is down close to 20% from the high on 18th May reflecting the optimism that a deal would be done.
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston in FX Institutional Sales about what this means for rates and the US do
How have the latest macro data & political developments impacted the outlook for the GBP?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss the latest Uk economic and political developments. How has it impacted the outlook for UK rates and the pound?
US dollar rebounds – yield’s renewed influence on FX
The US dollar is heading for its biggest weekly gain since the first week of the US-Iran conflict in early March. This week, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Julie Ellert, Head of FraBeLux FX Sales to discuss the factors behind the dollar move and what it might mean going forward. Yields certainly look to be increasing in importance
How are Middle East risks & intervention contributing to a weaker USD?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the USD lower over the past week . Is intervention from Japan likely to be successful in reversing JPY weakness?
Can USD/JPY Extend Its Decline After BoJ Intervention?
At the end of a busy week in the markets, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss FX Corporate Sales to discuss key developments and implications for the FX markets. Derek outlines the prospects for USD/JPY sustaining the move lower following probable intervention by the BoJ/MoF and delves into
How is the energy price shock impacting FX market performance and major central bank policies?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how the FX majors have been performing ahead of the upcoming BoJ, Fed, BoE & ECB policy meetings. Wil the European central banks stick to more hawkish guidance than the BoJ and Fed?
Oil Eases, Dollars React: What the Strait of Hormuz Reopening Means for Markets
News that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened by Iran has helped push Brent crude oil back below the USD 90pbl level. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities speaks to Matthieu Gloux Head of Global Client FX Sales about the implications for the US dollar and monetary policy if this re-opening proves lasting.
What’s next for the USD after the ceasefire in the Middle East?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the initial FX market reaction to the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Will the USD continue to weaken if military tensions in the region continue to de‑escalate?
Middle East Tensions and the FX Outlook: De Escalation vs. Deterioration
We are entering week 5 of the conflict in the Middle East and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski, from FX Institutional Sales, about the potential for de-escalation versus a scenario of deterioration and what that would mean for the US dollar and G10 FX. Derek and Chris also discuss the ECB and BoJ reaction functi
How are major central banks and the FX market reacting to the worsening energy price shock?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how major central banks are responding to the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global energy prices. With the Fed showing less urgency to tighten policy in response to the latest energy price shock, could this help moderate USD strength?
What do rising geopolitical risks and crude moves mean for the USD?
With the conflict in the Middle East set to extend into a third week, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Andrew Mitola, Director in FX Corporate Risk Solutions in New York about three scenarios for how the conflict unfolds from here and what the implications for the US dollar would be based on potential future moves in crude oil prices. Dere
How is the Middle East conflict impacting the FX market?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the USD has rebounded in response to the Middle East conflict.
How does it fit with historical FX performance during energy price shocks?
What’s Driving Renewed Yen Weakness as Geopolitical Tensions Between Iran and the US Rise?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka‑Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, explore why speculation over the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy shifts has triggered a fresh wave of yen weakness.
They also examine how escalating tensions between Iran and the United States could shape the performance of the US dollar in the weeks ahead.
The US dollar advanced this week as economic data and the FOMC minutes prompted investors to pare rate cut expectations ahead
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities speaks to Simon Mayes, Head of FX Sales for the UK and Ireland about the moves of the dollar this week. Derek also outlines elements of PM Takaichi’s speech and the implications for the yen and JGBs.
How has Japan's election results & US data impacted the FX market?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from the lower house election in Japan.
Will the USD extend its recent rebound on the back of the latest US employment and inflation data?
How is the Lower House election impacting the yen?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the outlook for the JPY ahead of this weekend’s Lower House election in Japan.
The GBP has also taken a hit in recent days, what have been the main drivers of the weaker GBP?
USD challenges to persist
The US dollar is recovering into the end of the week after the announcement that Kevin Warsh is being nominated for the role of Fed Chair. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses the outlook for the US dollar with Julie Ellert, Head of FraBeLux FX Sales and whether the Warsh announcement changes the outlook for the dollar. Derek also discusses
January 2026 FOMC Preview - Dovish under pressure? (Podcast Edition)
In this Podcast, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas discusses how January has been action packed, where isolating the signal from the noise means that the house view at MUFG hasn’t fundamentally changed. In our view, the US economy still looks to be setting down a path of a tale of two halves, with fiscal policies expected to mask underlying weakness in the first half o
How has the USD been impacted by geopolitical risks?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss why the USD has corrected lower over the past week even as US yields have risen. They also discuss the pick-up in JPY volatility after the BoJ’s latest policy update.
How are political and intervention risks impacting the JPY?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss risks for the JPY from a snap election in Japan. Lee and Sara also discuss President Trump’s latest attack on the Fed’s independence. What is the likely fallout for the USD?
Implications of US jobs data and possible Japan election
Following the release of the first US nonfarm payrolls report of 2026, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst to discuss the implication of the jobs report for the dollar and Fed policy. Derek and Sara also discuss factors behind strong growth but weak jobs growth and the breaking news that Japan PM Tak
MUFG 2026 Strategy Outlook – Smooth Sailing Ahead? (Podcast Edition)
George Goncalves, MUFG's Head of US Macro Strategy, and Agron Nicaj, MUFG’s US Desk Economist, share their outlook for the 2026 US economy and markets. The team expresses their skeptical view on AI's ability to further drive investment and wealth effect spending this year, relative to the many lofty expectations. Presented with a more cautious tone, the first half of the year may experience a boos
Focus on FOMC turns to the BoJ and BoE in final full week of trading
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meeti
Will USD/JPY continue to fall ahead of Fed & BoJ policy meetings?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?
How have fiscal concerns been impacting GBP & JPY performance?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound’s reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?
Japan and UK fiscal challenges in focus
Following the supplementary budget announced in Japan on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales to discuss the details of the package what it means for JGB issuance plans going forward and the possible impact on JGB yields and the yen. Looking ahead of next week Derek and Jack discuss the UK b
Will the GBP continue to underperform?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving the GBP sell-off over the past week. Is the recent GBP weakness likely to continue heading into next year?
BoE policy outlook, the UK budget and FX and Rates implications
This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Henry Cook, Europe Economist to discuss the implications of the BoE MPC monetary policy decision this week. Henry and Derek discuss the key takeaways from the meeting and the financial market impact on rates and the pound. The upcoming budget implications are also discussed. The budget is cru
Will the yen sell-off continue after latest BoJ driven sell-off?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade, Deputy Head | UK, Ireland, Swiss and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss what’s next for the yen after it was by far the worst performing G10 currency in October. The pound has also underperformed alongside the yen recently, will this continue ahead of BoE’s upcoming policy meeting?
October 2025 FOMC Preview QT out, flexible reserves in… (Podcast Edition)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas, shares our latest macro perspectives in light of the government shutdown and ongoing updates to US trade policy. However, the main focus was on the teams expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition to expecting a 25bp cut, with reserves continuing to shrink and Chair Powell signaling that the Fed may be approaching the end of i
US-Japan relations in focus in key week ahead for JPY
This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk to Shan Husain in FI FX Sales about the outlook for rates and FX ahead of a busy week. In Japan PM Sanae Takaichi’s speech in the Diet signals fiscal expansion. President Trump will be in Tokyo and then we also have the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Th
How have political & trade risks impacted the FX market?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss what has been driving a weaker USD over the past week. How important have political and trade risks been for FX market performance?
Political uncertainty driving FX market and gold price?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how the latest political developments in France and Japan are impacting the FX market. Heightened uncertainty has helped to lift the price of gold to fresh highs above USD4000/ounce, how have FX rates performed during periods of rising gold prices?
Will MAS ease in October?
After easing twice this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its policy unchanged in July. Since then, inflation has eased and export momentum is showing signs of weakness. The big question on everyone’s mind is whether MAS will ease again in October? Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst with the MUFG Global Markets Asia Research team talks to Jamie Tsukakoshi, Head of FX Sales, Gl
Yen volatility, the BoJ and the Fed
The US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going
It’s Still a Reach for a Goldilocks Outcome… (Podcast Edition)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, shares how our latest macro thinking has evolved, where our longstanding view that the weak labor market and ongoing large revisions would result in a Fed pivot and a restart of easing in September. There was a high level recap of the special topic from the latest monthly which covered Asia FX reserves. Our analysis shows that we’ve come fu
Will stronger US growth create foundations for a bigger USD rebound?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how positive US economic data surprises have been encouraging a stronger USD. Will the divergence between weak US employment growth and stronger US GDP growth continue in the week ahead?
US dollar gains unlikely to be sustained
Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BoJ meeting on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Chris Jack Jakubowski, Hedge Fund FX Institutional Sales about the impact of these central bank meetings on USD/JPY and the dollar more generally. Derek discusses the BoJ decision and how the upcoming LDP leadership election could play an
How will the BoE’s policy update impact GBP performance?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week.
Will the BoE’s upcoming policy meeting continue to provide support for the GBP?
Will the USD continue to fall as the Fed moves closer to cutting rates?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss the outlook for the USD after the release of another weak nonfarm payrolls report. Will political uncertainty in France and Japan help to dampen USD weakness?
Rupiah outlook tested by protests
Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah amid political uncertainty. Lloyd also highlights that Bank Indonesia’s FX intervention and the government’s rollback of its controversial policy have helped stabilize market sentiment on the rupiah for now.
US dollar resilience unlikely to last
The US dollar has been broadly stable this week despite the escalation of uncertainty related to Trump's attempts to undermine Fed independence. This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales about the US dollar implications going forward. Derek also discusses BoJ policy, Japan politics and the yen a
What’s next for the USD after Jackson Hole?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market fallout from Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole. Could diverging policies between the Fed and other major central banks drive the USD even lower?"
How is the changing outlook for BoJ and Fed policies impacting USD/JPY?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss how the latest economic data is shaping the outlook for BoJ and Fed policies. Will widening policy divergence put greater pressure on USD/JPY as we head into the autumn?
USD downside risk increasing
The dollar weakened again this week, though more modestly - slipping less than 1%. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, joins James Roulston from FX Institutional Sales to unpack the key themes likely to shape FX moves in the weeks ahead. They discuss the implications of Stephen Miran’s appointment to the Fed Board of Governors - what it could mean
At an inflection point or another macro head fake? (Podcast Edition)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through one of the busiest macro week of the year, where we had the Fed, QRA, BoJ, tariff deadlines and announcements, and a slew of labor data. In the end, the biggest highlight of the week was the extremely weak employment report which also had large revisions to the previous two months. Judging by the markets reaction, the downs
Weak jobs data a gamechanger
The release of a much weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report has triggered significant market movements, as investors increasingly position for a potential Fed rate cut in September. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Jack Greenslade from FX Corporate Sales about the report’s implications for the U.S. dollar and Federal Res
Will the BoJ policy update provide trigger for a JPY rebound?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of Corporate Sales for the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland (FX), to explore the outlook for the Japanese yen following Japan’s Upper House election and the recent US-Japan trade agreement. With a potential policy shift on the horizon, could a hawkish Bank of Japan stance in the coming week give the JPY a boost?
Japan, Politics and the Yen - Is It All Priced?
After another week of Trump-driven financial market volatility, attention now turns to Japanese politics. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, sits down with Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales, to discuss Sunday’s upper house election and its potential implications for the markets next week and beyond.
Upper house elections in Japan are typ
Mid-Month Update: Balancing Tariff News vs Recent Data Trends
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through a series of topics as a mid-month update: from tariffs, to the recent softer than expected inflation report, the optically better than expected NFP jobs data, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, George and the team pushed back their next Fed cut to September from July where they still believe that neutr
How has the FX market responded to Trump’s latest tariff announcements?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market's reaction to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.. They also explore whether rising political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the Upper House elections is playing a role in the yen’s recent weakness.
The BoJ, yen and Trump’s tariff announcement
As markets await President Trump’s announcement on updated reciprocal tariff rates following months of negotiations, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Julie Ellert, Head of FX FraBelux Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for FX markets.
With inflation in Japan remaining elevated, they also explore how the Bank of Japan m
June 2025 NFP Preview (Podcast Edition)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting
What's next for the USD after Middle East tensions ease?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, unpack the factors behind the sharp reversal in the US dollar after it hit new year-to-date lows. Is this just a pause in the downward trend, or the start of a broader recovery? Tune in for insights on what could shape the USD’s direction in the week ahead. Share your thoughts in the comment section.
USD downside risks persist in most Middle East scenarios
Following some tentative signs of easing risks in the Middle East, which have helped weaken the US dollar, Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland, and Swiss FX Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for the US dollar and the financial markets. Derek also highlights some key takeaways from the numerou
June 2025 FOMC Preview Podcast Edition - It’s never “too late” to pivot (so long as it’s to the dovish side)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use thi
Will Middle East tensions trigger a reversal of the weakening USD trend?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent USD sell-off ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Will the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran help to support the USD after hitting year-to-date lows?
Malaysia's strong investment to support ringgit
Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for Malaysia's economy and the ringgit amid lingering global trade uncertainties. Lloyd also highlights that Malaysia's economy is in a domestic-led investment upcycle, which could help cushion the impact of trade headwinds and support ringgit stability.
What's next for the USD after the latest NFP report?
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss FX market developments over the past week. It has been a mixed week for the USD but will the weakening trend remain place?
The Great Whiplash (Podcast Version)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest developments in US macro and markets which was covered in the last monthly titled "The Great Whiplash". George highlights that the constant policy shifts, especially on the trade front, has led to tight trading ranges - even as we sit at local highs in both stocks and rates. Given the constant news flow challenge
