In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows is a podcast that explores Russian history and contemporary politics, often delving into topics that go beyond the headlines. Hosted by Mark Galeotti, a noted expert on Russia, the show features discussions on new books, research, and interviews with other Russia-watchers. The podcast is the audio counterpart to Galeotti's blog of the same name, offering insightful analysis on Russia's past and present.
Episodes
In Moscow's Shadows 251: The Near Abroad Recedes: Armenia and Belarus
Russia still talks about the “Near Abroad” as if the map never changed, but the region is changing anyway. After a quick touch on Zelensky's open letter to Putin and the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, I dive into the relative trajectories of Armenia, currently at the polls, and Belarus, emphatically not. Despite its continued use of this problematic, imperialist term the "Ne
In Moscow's Shadows 250: Moscow's Comms Playbook (And Why It's So Bad)
A Russian drone hits a Romanian apartment block, two civilians are injured, and suddenly a stray weapon becomes a case study in how Putin’s Kremlin handles bad news. Why does the Kremlin’s crisis management default to a belligerent, self-sabotaging sequence that turns a manageable incident into a wider political problem?It comes down to the priorities of an insecure, personalistic authoritarian sy
In Moscow's Shadows 249: Pragmatism in Asia
After Putin's Beijing visit - long on rhetoric, short on results - I look more broadly as Asia: the limits of the "friendship with no limits" with China, heding with India, and the ebbing of hegemony in Central Asia. In short, everyone is a transactional pragmatist, behind the talk of "all-weather partnerships" and "eternal friendships." But then again, isn'
In Moscow's Shadows 248: What If?
First, a round up of some current issues: Putin heading to China, two governors out (and two men with Ukraine war connections in), party politics and the jostling for second place, and how the Council of Europe is implicitly encouraging Putin to stay in power until he dies...In the second half, the opening episode of a series of alternative history (the rest will be available to paying Patrons) ex
In Moscow's Shadows 247: Victory Day Without The Victory
No tanks, great camera work. Victory Day is supposed to be Russia’s most unshakeable story, the moment when the state proves its strength, its allies, and its confidence on Red Square. Yet watching this year’s parade, I can’t escape the sense that the symbolism is working harder than the reality: fewer troops, no heavy hardware in Moscow, and security concerns hanging over the whole performance. I
In Moscow's Shadows 246: Is Russia A Great Power?
A battlefield setback in Mali sparks a much bigger question: what kind of power is Russia now, and what kind of power can it afford to be? Is it a superpower? No. Is it a great power? It depends what you mean. It certainly is not just the "gas station with nukes" of the cliche. Putin’s language of “sovereign civilisation” recasts greatness as resistance rather than dominance, especially
In Moscow's Shadows 245: Belousov And The War Machine
Putin didn’t pick a battlefield hero to run Russia’s Defence Ministry. He picked Andrei Belousov, an economist with a planner’s instincts and a technocrat’s patience. Thats what the Kremlin thinks it needs most right now: a 'Quartermaster-in-Chief,' who wouldn't tangle with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, but instead focus in procurement that works, production at scale, drones
In Moscow's Shadows 244: The War Word And The Clickbait Trap
The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: politicians who want public backing for big defence spending, media outlets that live on attention, and all of us who share first and think later. I look at two particular examples: the current fascination in the British press with the idea that Russia may la
In Moscow's Shadows 243: Who Controls The Story In Russia?
Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds where modern Russia tries to control what people see as true, normal, and inevitable, and where society still finds ways to push back even when formal protest is risky, whether in framing Harry Potter, or surviving in the occupied Donbas.The books in questio
In Moscow's Shadows 242: Igor Sechin, Sharpening Putin's Pencils for 30 Years
Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmistakably in the background. The idea seems to have been initiated by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s gravel-voiced boss and one of the most polarising figures in Putin’s circle. After keeping a low profile since 2022, why is he coming back into the news? Because
In Moscow's Shadows 241: When Attack Dogs Turn
A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Russian-speaking Estonian “Narva People’s Republic” look like a Kremlin disruption operation: manufacturing attention, stoking anxiety, and forcing journalists and officials into a no-win choice between silence and amplification. Rather more significant
In Moscow's Shadows 240: Frankenstein's Putinism
Or, 'Team Russia and the Undead Ideology Project' Can you create an ideology that is custom-engineered, poll-driven, focus grouped, workshopped and marketed? The Presidential Administration's Alexander Kharichev is certainly trying, suggesting the Kremlin's concerns about the future.I also discuss Marlene Laruelle's excellent book Ideology and Meaning-Making under the Puti
In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic
How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to trust Washington. It's also a laboratory for what one Russian military theorist called "non-contact war," and may help shape Moscow's notions of the future of conflict.Then it’s home to Moscow’s underworld, where a fragile peace
In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish
First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches. Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The techno
In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion
A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people who know what they’re doing. Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1552, learning crucial lessons of warfare and statecraft that Putin the Not So Great neglected when invading Ukraine in 2022.Spinning off
In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia?
In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connection in the Epstein case risks missing the real scandal: how powerful people and institutions tolerated what they knew.Then, to answer the larger question—what kind of country is Russia?—I spin off
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her book Rebel Russia: Russia’s past is full of uprisings and dissent, yet weak social solidarity keeps those bursts of courage from becoming lastin
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Moscow. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these questions.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides s
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to an armoured Aurus limo and a “ghost train” that slips through the rail network without a schedule, the machinery is vast, expensive, and designed to smother threats before they form.The podcast'
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closely tied to Ukrainian advocacy strengthen dialogue with Russians or hand the Kremlin an easy propaganda win. Does the much-hyped energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offer little repair time but
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of Trump's Board of Peace for a Russia that we might consider a 'middle power.' Then, once-in-a-generation blizzards in Kamchatka as a test of state capacity and Putin's engagement.With Kadyrov
In Moscow's Shadows 232: the Black Priest vs the Death Cult
A tabloid brands Zelensky’s Christmas address a “black mass,” complete with glassy eyes, hidden codes, and a trance to “hack the noosphere” to cast a death curse on Putin. Huh? What? Why are occult narratives creeping from the fringe into Russia’s mainstream? And, for that matter, why are notions such that Russia is now in the grip of a "nihilistic death cult" also warping Western thinki
In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine
The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe from the sidelines, so this episode I stick my neck out: what do I think would represent a credible security guarantee for Ukraine that would also permit a peace? Buckle in, it's a lo
In Moscow's Shadows 230: The Rise and Fall of a Chechen Gang
Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implications for the coming situation in Russia and Europe -- I look at recent developments: the appointment of Budanov as Zelensky's new chief of staff, the US operation in Venezuela, and recent drone strikes...The podcast's corporate partner an
In Moscow's Shadows 229: Heroes and Villains
To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not.(PS: Listened to JD Vance at the Moscow Security Conference? A Freudian slip there -- of course, I meant Munich Security Conference!)And of course, as befits the last episode of the year, a little round up and thanks to everyone listening -- a
In Moscow's Shadows 228: Blood & Soil versus Bread & Butter
Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual. 4.5 hours, 3M submitted questions, but what can we learn? Intransigence over Ukraine, attempts to talk up the economy, but a marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president who felt just a littl
In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least)
A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace. We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour.
In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods
There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of both Andrii Yermak and Dmitri Kozak.In the second half, I use Russian folklore, and the arrays of terrifying threats in the deep woods and the potentially terrifying s
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?
In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.In the second, I spin off Susanna Rabow-Edling's excellent book, The First Russian Revolution. The Decembrist Revolt of 1825 (Reaktion Books) to consider some of the modern resonances.The podcast's corporate partner and spo
In Moscow's Shadows 224: In Helsinki's (and Kyiv's) Shadows
From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my recent hectic trip to Finland. And, in the second half, how should we think about the likely fall of Pokrovsk and what to make of Ukraine's Midas Case corruption scandal -- and how it's being covered in Russia?The podcast's corporate partn
In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin, Who... or What?
We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day.The Julian Waller article I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innov
In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin?
The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.'In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by Vi
In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy?The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immers
In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?
Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean?My previous look at Korolev was i
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and imm
In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?
We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders...The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which pro
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, whic
In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow.As I mention, the revised and
In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups
The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civi
In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)
The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair of the Supreme Court. Figures have been released showing that corruption cases rose 16% in the first half of the year. Put together, how do these highlight the hollowing out of Russia, the convergence of late Putinism and late Brezhnevism?Informatio
In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...
After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign Agents. What's going on - he seems to have been caught by Russia's escalating feud with Azerbaijan - and what does this say about the decay of late Putinism?In the second half, I consider three recent books and what they say about how we d
In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska
Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest not really, because his interests are not that opposed)? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like?Tickets for the Waterstones book event I mentioned in London on 4 September are available here.The podcast's corporate
In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...
So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Sha
In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?
With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreanisation' of Russia, of a 'digital gulag.' After a first half looking at developments in Ukraine, the war and international perceptions of threat, I dive into this issue. There are some interesting parallels with Soviet times, with diffe
In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit
In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before pivoting to explore how the US president has inadvertently made it clear that it is not him but China's Xi Jinping who has more influence with Putin. What is the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship, and where is it going?The podcast's corp
In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation
In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy!The podcast's corporate pa
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritaria
In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel
After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to comba
In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War
There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master
In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West
In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24.In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-
In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?
A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to.The podcast's co
In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway?
An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must...In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in
In Moscow's Shadows 201: Peacetalkers and Warfighters
Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces?The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and i
In Moscow's Shadows 200: Victory Day (whose?)
The 200th episode! Hard to believe.After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping.The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University, the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival, with the
In Moscow's Shadows 199: the General in GenPop
General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime?The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political war
In Moscow's Shadows 198: War (in Russia's underworld) and Peace (in Ukraine)?
In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils?In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor
In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn?
An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I s
In Moscow's Shadows 196: Space, the Failing Frontier
In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.'In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme.The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, w
In Moscow's Shadows 195: Q&A, Part 2
A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media!The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also foll
In Moscow's Shadows 194: Q&A, Part 1
Comrades! Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the
In Moscow's Shadows 193: Mishustin's Annual Report: what he says, what he doesn't
One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil
In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years?
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment.PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Eur
In Moscow's Shadows 191: How is Russian Foreign Policy Made?
What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy.The Sunday Times article I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovat
In Moscow's Shadows 190: Sanctions, Spies, and Suspect Legitimacy
Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK.In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia, edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinbu
In Moscow's Shadows 189: Oval Office Mugging and Russia's Police in Crisis
Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now?And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real succes
In Moscow's Shadows 188: War and Peace and Trump
In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe.The po
In Moscow's Shadows 187: Tatarstan
As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation?Th
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Ukrainskii Sindrom
Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come home, Russia is likely to experience a problem of a dispossessed and alienated generation akin to the 'Afghan Syndrome' which faced the veterans of the Soviet Afghan war. Sadly, the answer is probably so.Support the show
In Moscow's Shadows 186: Why is Putin's Russia so Prone to Conspiracy Theories?
The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes
In Moscow's Shadows 185: The One With All The Stuff
How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history?The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here. The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here.The four books I cover are:The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2021)&
In Moscow's Shadows 184: One Hundred Years of Companionship?
The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv?The texts are available here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis
In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)
We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for condi
In Moscow's Shadows 182: Things To Watch in 2025
Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?For those who get lost in the flow, they are:PERSONALIA· Elvira Nabiullina· Ramzan Kadyrov · Alexander Khinshtein · Alexei Dyumin · Sergei Naryshkin · Nikolai Patrushev · (Not Mikhail Mishustin/Anton Vaino)INSTITS· Security Council ·
In Moscow's Shadows 181: Strap in for a Bumpy 2025
Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.The podcast's corporate partner a
In Moscow's Shadows 180: Keep Calm and Carry On
What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might feel - everything is fine and they should stay the course. Meanwhile, over Ukraine if anything his line may be hardening: he may talk of 'compromise', but is trying to define the terms of any future peace. Anyway, I listened to 4½ hours, and
In Moscow's Shadows 179: Sex, Drugs & Rocky Roads
We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.The OSW repo
In Moscow's Shadows 178: Assad la vista, baby - what does Damascus's fall mean for Russia?
So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually something that perversely frees it from a commitment made in 2015, yet less relevant today? What are the likely knock-on effects for Russia's position in the Mediterranean and Africa? The hottest of hot takes.That Q&A with Sam Heller and Aron Lun
In Moscow's Shadows 177: Adaptation in Russia and Ukraine
President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and econ
In Moscow's Shadows 176: Is Andrei Belousov the Lavrov of the Defence Ministry?
Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his rise and his chances of achieving anything in his current role?The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotageThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is
In Moscow's Shadows 175: 'In a dangerous world, strike first' - Russian strategic culture
'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- i
