In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows is a podcast that explores Russian history and contemporary politics, often delving into topics that go beyond the headlines. Hosted by Mark Galeotti, a noted expert on Russia, the show features discussions on new books, research, and interviews with other Russia-watchers. The podcast is the audio counterpart to Galeotti's blog of the same name, offering insightful analysis on Russia's past and present.
Episodes
In Moscow's Shadows 266: Diesel and Delusion
Donald Trump's diesel deal is, of course, in effect a birthday present for Putin, explained by The Donald’s transactional self-interest and hunger for a headline before the midterms, not baroque theories about hidden loyalties. Even if not a single barrel of diesel ever ships, though, this is undoubtedly good for Moscow. Maybe some revenue (if need be, Putin can starve domestic markets to exp
In Moscow's Shadows 265: Valdai and Putin on Peace
The annual shindig of the Valdai Discussion Club is one of those Kremlin set pieces that invites two equally lazy reactions: treat it as sacred insight into Vladimir Putin’s mind, or wave it away as pure Russian propaganda. It's a bit of both, but does give an insight into Russia's changing foreign policy priorities, as much from who is invited as what is said.(And a side-note on the que
In Moscow's Shadows 264: Russia’s Bear(s) On The March
A fat, smug bear sits at the heart of Russia’s politics right now and it is not just a party logo. The State Duma election has handed United Russia - whose logo is the bear - its biggest ever share of seats. Of course, the vote was rigged, but what does Putin do with this mandate now? A quick look at the state of the Ukraine war (where it's heading to be a nasty winter) then leads to a few wo
In Moscow's Shadows 263: Voting for War Putinism
In Russia’s elections, the ballot box is no longer a measure of consent but rather a tool for manufacturing it. It's only two days into the three days of elections to the State Duma, but I catch up on the latest and consider what to look for, before addressing the growing concern/hysteria about the Russian threat to the West (no, Putin didn't try to kill Boris Johnson), mobilisation and
In Moscow's Shadows 262: Jaw-Jaw Not Ending The War-War
I start with a round-up of current news stories: the Witkoff-Kushner peace mission that is likely heading nowhere, Zelensky's apparent threat to civil aviation that was likely more psyop than serious, and the SCO summit in Bishkek that was likely more significant than either of the above. (And medieval counterfeiting, for good measure...)In the second half, I look at Russia's drone strik
In Moscow's Shadows 261: Happy Days for Putin?
Everyone keeps diagnosing Putin’s mood, not least given the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow. Putin is angry, he's frightened, he's desperate -- that seems to be the standard Western talking point these days, and hence the fear that he might do something dangerously escalatory.But is he? Things might actually look rather more encouraging from his perspective. So, in this episode, I try and
In Moscow's Shadows 260: Digging (Relics) For Victory
The war seems to be getting (even) nastier, in part perhaps - and this may be over-optimistic - as both sides seen an endgame almost in sight, as well as out of growing desperation on both sides. The desperation even extends to digging up Prince Dmitri Donskoi's bones for propaganda purposes.Then again, in the second half this gives me an excuse to talk about a couple of archaeological storie
In Moscow's Shadows 259: A Bite Out Of The Apple
When the Kremlin changed its mind and decided to ban the opposition party Yabloko (Apple) from running in September's elections, it demonstrated its concern that this could become the new vessel of the 'coalition of the fed-up.' After all, this seeming no-hoper party was suddenly being boosted by a guerrilla meme campaign and looked as if it might even cross the 5% threshold to get
In Moscow's Shadows 258: The Ukraine War and Russia's Khaki Election
Ukraine’s long-range campaign against Russia is no longer just about spectacular refinery fires. When Kyiv pivots towards softer targets like logistics hubs, it can hit morale, prices, and everyday life in ways that pure military targets do not. It is also a reminder of the innovation cycle in the war: Ukraine shifts tactics, Russia adapts, and both sides hunt for the next gap in air defences and
In Moscow's Shadows 257: A Tale Of Two Systems
Zelensky sacks a defence minister, then removes his commander-in-chief, and suddenly the question is not “who is better?” but “who controls the politics of war?” I use this as an opportunity to explore the systemic warfighting capacities of Ukraine and Russia defined not so much in military but political terms: political focus, generating and motivating soldiers, and learning. Russia can concentra
In Moscow's Shadows 256: Desperation, Escalation, Mobilisation
Putin is being pressed by some within the elite to call it quits and freeze the war on the current front line, by others to step up and try and impose a quick military solution. His natural impulse is to put off decisions, but Kyiv's campaign against Crimea may make that impossible. He seems determined to hold out for the last bit of the Donbas, so he has to escalate. With other options, from
In Moscow's Shadows 255: Chekistocracy? Or, Power and the Spooks in Putin's Russia
“Russia is run by the spooks” is a satisfying line, but it is also a lazy one. Despite talk of a 'Chekistocracy' run by the intelligence and security services, the FSB, SVR and GRU are better understood as competing institutional actors than as a single all-powerful caste pulling every lever in the Kremlin. In that context, "power" itself is a complex phenomenon, and I outline
In Moscow's Shadows 254: Endgames
A collection of stories to discuss, but all of which in one way or another come down to endgames: the death of Sergei Ivanov, the "drone siege" of Crimea, the debate over the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, and a shell-shocked soldier threatening mutiny. How far, to put it fancifully, does what feels like the increasing the emergence of all kinds of false prophets, end is nigh doom
In Moscow's Shadows 253: The Fall Of Antikvar
A 74-year-old port magnate known in the underworld as Antikvar is arrested by an FSB team, hauled into Moscow’s Basmanny Court, and suddenly the ghosts of St Petersburg’s wild 1990s feel very alive. Ilya Traber's career took him from from antiques monopolies to oil terminals, in the murky interface between “authoritative business” and outright organised crime. And much of it thanks to his rel
In Moscow's Shadows 252: All the Pieces of Peace in Ukraine
Peace gets talked about as if it is a destination we can spot from the front line, but the closer we look, the more it feels like a mirage. Ukraine’s mid-range strikes and tactical gains tempt commentators into declaring a decisive shift, and then into assuming peace is near. Real progress matters, but overconfident stories can set the public up for disappointment and push policymakers towards sho
In Moscow's Shadows 251: The Near Abroad Recedes: Armenia and Belarus
Russia still talks about the “Near Abroad” as if the map never changed, but the region is changing anyway. After a quick touch on Zelensky's open letter to Putin and the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, I dive into the relative trajectories of Armenia, currently at the polls, and Belarus, emphatically not. Despite its continued use of this problematic, imperialist term the "Ne
In Moscow's Shadows 250: Moscow's Comms Playbook (And Why It's So Bad)
A Russian drone hits a Romanian apartment block, two civilians are injured, and suddenly a stray weapon becomes a case study in how Putin’s Kremlin handles bad news. Why does the Kremlin’s crisis management default to a belligerent, self-sabotaging sequence that turns a manageable incident into a wider political problem?It comes down to the priorities of an insecure, personalistic authoritarian sy
In Moscow's Shadows 249: Pragmatism in Asia
After Putin's Beijing visit - long on rhetoric, short on results - I look more broadly as Asia: the limits of the "friendship with no limits" with China, heding with India, and the ebbing of hegemony in Central Asia. In short, everyone is a transactional pragmatist, behind the talk of "all-weather partnerships" and "eternal friendships." But then again, isn'
In Moscow's Shadows 248: What If?
First, a round up of some current issues: Putin heading to China, two governors out (and two men with Ukraine war connections in), party politics and the jostling for second place, and how the Council of Europe is implicitly encouraging Putin to stay in power until he dies...In the second half, the opening episode of a series of alternative history (the rest will be available to paying Patrons) ex
In Moscow's Shadows 247: Victory Day Without The Victory
No tanks, great camera work. Victory Day is supposed to be Russia’s most unshakeable story, the moment when the state proves its strength, its allies, and its confidence on Red Square. Yet watching this year’s parade, I can’t escape the sense that the symbolism is working harder than the reality: fewer troops, no heavy hardware in Moscow, and security concerns hanging over the whole performance. I
In Moscow's Shadows 246: Is Russia A Great Power?
A battlefield setback in Mali sparks a much bigger question: what kind of power is Russia now, and what kind of power can it afford to be? Is it a superpower? No. Is it a great power? It depends what you mean. It certainly is not just the "gas station with nukes" of the cliche. Putin’s language of “sovereign civilisation” recasts greatness as resistance rather than dominance, especially
In Moscow's Shadows 245: Belousov And The War Machine
Putin didn’t pick a battlefield hero to run Russia’s Defence Ministry. He picked Andrei Belousov, an economist with a planner’s instincts and a technocrat’s patience. Thats what the Kremlin thinks it needs most right now: a 'Quartermaster-in-Chief,' who wouldn't tangle with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, but instead focus in procurement that works, production at scale, drones
In Moscow's Shadows 244: The War Word And The Clickbait Trap
The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: politicians who want public backing for big defence spending, media outlets that live on attention, and all of us who share first and think later. I look at two particular examples: the current fascination in the British press with the idea that Russia may la
In Moscow's Shadows 243: Who Controls The Story In Russia?
Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds where modern Russia tries to control what people see as true, normal, and inevitable, and where society still finds ways to push back even when formal protest is risky, whether in framing Harry Potter, or surviving in the occupied Donbas.The books in questio
In Moscow's Shadows 242: Igor Sechin, Sharpening Putin's Pencils for 30 Years
Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmistakably in the background. The idea seems to have been initiated by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s gravel-voiced boss and one of the most polarising figures in Putin’s circle. After keeping a low profile since 2022, why is he coming back into the news? Because
In Moscow's Shadows 241: When Attack Dogs Turn
A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Russian-speaking Estonian “Narva People’s Republic” look like a Kremlin disruption operation: manufacturing attention, stoking anxiety, and forcing journalists and officials into a no-win choice between silence and amplification. Rather more significant
In Moscow's Shadows 240: Frankenstein's Putinism
Or, 'Team Russia and the Undead Ideology Project' Can you create an ideology that is custom-engineered, poll-driven, focus grouped, workshopped and marketed? The Presidential Administration's Alexander Kharichev is certainly trying, suggesting the Kremlin's concerns about the future.I also discuss Marlene Laruelle's excellent book Ideology and Meaning-Making under the Puti
In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic
How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to trust Washington. It's also a laboratory for what one Russian military theorist called "non-contact war," and may help shape Moscow's notions of the future of conflict.Then it’s home to Moscow’s underworld, where a fragile peace
In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish
First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches. Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The techno
In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion
A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people who know what they’re doing. Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1552, learning crucial lessons of warfare and statecraft that Putin the Not So Great neglected when invading Ukraine in 2022.Spinning off
In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia?
In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connection in the Epstein case risks missing the real scandal: how powerful people and institutions tolerated what they knew.Then, to answer the larger question—what kind of country is Russia?—I spin off
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her book Rebel Russia: Russia’s past is full of uprisings and dissent, yet weak social solidarity keeps those bursts of courage from becoming lastin
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Moscow. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these questions.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides s
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to an armoured Aurus limo and a “ghost train” that slips through the rail network without a schedule, the machinery is vast, expensive, and designed to smother threats before they form.The podcast'
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closely tied to Ukrainian advocacy strengthen dialogue with Russians or hand the Kremlin an easy propaganda win. Does the much-hyped energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offer little repair time but
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of Trump's Board of Peace for a Russia that we might consider a 'middle power.' Then, once-in-a-generation blizzards in Kamchatka as a test of state capacity and Putin's engagement.With Kadyrov
In Moscow's Shadows 232: the Black Priest vs the Death Cult
A tabloid brands Zelensky’s Christmas address a “black mass,” complete with glassy eyes, hidden codes, and a trance to “hack the noosphere” to cast a death curse on Putin. Huh? What? Why are occult narratives creeping from the fringe into Russia’s mainstream? And, for that matter, why are notions such that Russia is now in the grip of a "nihilistic death cult" also warping Western thinki
In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine
The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe from the sidelines, so this episode I stick my neck out: what do I think would represent a credible security guarantee for Ukraine that would also permit a peace? Buckle in, it's a lo
In Moscow's Shadows 230: The Rise and Fall of a Chechen Gang
Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implications for the coming situation in Russia and Europe -- I look at recent developments: the appointment of Budanov as Zelensky's new chief of staff, the US operation in Venezuela, and recent drone strikes...The podcast's corporate partner an
In Moscow's Shadows 229: Heroes and Villains
To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not.(PS: Listened to JD Vance at the Moscow Security Conference? A Freudian slip there -- of course, I meant Munich Security Conference!)And of course, as befits the last episode of the year, a little round up and thanks to everyone listening -- a
In Moscow's Shadows 228: Blood & Soil versus Bread & Butter
Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual. 4.5 hours, 3M submitted questions, but what can we learn? Intransigence over Ukraine, attempts to talk up the economy, but a marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president who felt just a littl
In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least)
A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace. We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour.
In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods
There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of both Andrii Yermak and Dmitri Kozak.In the second half, I use Russian folklore, and the arrays of terrifying threats in the deep woods and the potentially terrifying s
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?
In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.In the second, I spin off Susanna Rabow-Edling's excellent book, The First Russian Revolution. The Decembrist Revolt of 1825 (Reaktion Books) to consider some of the modern resonances.The podcast's corporate partner and spo
In Moscow's Shadows 224: In Helsinki's (and Kyiv's) Shadows
From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my recent hectic trip to Finland. And, in the second half, how should we think about the likely fall of Pokrovsk and what to make of Ukraine's Midas Case corruption scandal -- and how it's being covered in Russia?The podcast's corporate partn
In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin, Who... or What?
We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day.The Julian Waller article I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innov
In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin?
The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.'In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by Vi
In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy?The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immers
In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?
Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean?My previous look at Korolev was i
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and imm
In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?
We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders...The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which pro
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, whic
In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow.As I mention, the revised and
In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups
The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civi
In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)
The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair of the Supreme Court. Figures have been released showing that corruption cases rose 16% in the first half of the year. Put together, how do these highlight the hollowing out of Russia, the convergence of late Putinism and late Brezhnevism?Informatio
In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...
After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign Agents. What's going on - he seems to have been caught by Russia's escalating feud with Azerbaijan - and what does this say about the decay of late Putinism?In the second half, I consider three recent books and what they say about how we d
In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska
Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest not really, because his interests are not that opposed)? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like?Tickets for the Waterstones book event I mentioned in London on 4 September are available here.The podcast's corporate
In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...
So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Sha
In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?
With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreanisation' of Russia, of a 'digital gulag.' After a first half looking at developments in Ukraine, the war and international perceptions of threat, I dive into this issue. There are some interesting parallels with Soviet times, with diffe
In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit
In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before pivoting to explore how the US president has inadvertently made it clear that it is not him but China's Xi Jinping who has more influence with Putin. What is the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship, and where is it going?The podcast's corp
In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation
In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy!The podcast's corporate pa
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritaria
In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel
After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to comba
In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War
There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master
In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West
In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24.In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-
In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?
A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to.The podcast's co
In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway?
An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must...In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in
In Moscow's Shadows 201: Peacetalkers and Warfighters
Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces?The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and i
In Moscow's Shadows 200: Victory Day (whose?)
The 200th episode! Hard to believe.After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping.The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University, the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival, with the
In Moscow's Shadows 199: the General in GenPop
General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime?The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political war
In Moscow's Shadows 198: War (in Russia's underworld) and Peace (in Ukraine)?
In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils?In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor
In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn?
An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I s
In Moscow's Shadows 196: Space, the Failing Frontier
In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.'In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme.The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, w
In Moscow's Shadows 195: Q&A, Part 2
A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media!The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also foll
In Moscow's Shadows 194: Q&A, Part 1
Comrades! Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the
In Moscow's Shadows 193: Mishustin's Annual Report: what he says, what he doesn't
One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil
In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years?
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment.PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Eur
In Moscow's Shadows 191: How is Russian Foreign Policy Made?
What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy.The Sunday Times article I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovat
In Moscow's Shadows 190: Sanctions, Spies, and Suspect Legitimacy
Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK.In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia, edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinbu
In Moscow's Shadows 189: Oval Office Mugging and Russia's Police in Crisis
Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now?And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real succes
