The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics
Capital Economics is a macroeconomic research consultancy, and The Weekly Briefing is its podcast covering the global economy and markets. Each week, its economists examine major economic and market stories, from central bank decisions to China's slowdown and moves in equities, bonds and FX. The show highlights the issues investors should be paying more attention to.
Episodes
The Fed, the World, and China Shock 2.0
Neil Shearing and Jennifer McKeown unpack a pivotal week for the world's major central banks. They discuss the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike and what it says about the independence of central banks in an era of political pressure. They then talk about why the market may be mispricing the future path of interest rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan and the UK. Finally, they discuss Capit
Neil Shearing on China Shock 2.0
The stunning surge in Chinese exports bears comparison with what happened during the first China shock of the early 2000s. But this time is different: the scale is much larger, the goods being exported are much more advanced and the geopolitical environment is much more fraught.In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group – Chief Economist Neil Shearing introduces Capital Economi
That hot jobs report and the Fed's September meeting
That was a much hotter payrolls report than the market had expected, but how will it influence this month’s Fed decision? With inflation risks still prevalent, how will the ECB and Bank of England approach their September meetings? And what does the surge in bond yields mean for economies?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown join David Wilder
AI earnings and equities, gauging Bessent’s success and Iran’s economic squeeze
Can another set of blow-out AI earnings reignite the rally that has powered equities for so long but recently seems to have run out of puff?Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joins The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the latest tech earnings, whether Scott Bessent has managed to cap Treasury yields and what investors will want to hear from Kevin Warsh in his Jackso
The great global bond sell-off – causes, consequences and what comes next
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics features an exclusive extract from our client briefing on the global bond sell-off, its causes, consequences and where markets go from here. In this edited extract, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann answer questions from clients around the world, including:What was Scott Besse
A polarised US rate debate, China's lost reform and the £25bn question
Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh’s divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China’s political economy today?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook
Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks.
A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's
Kevin Warsh's failure to communicate. Plus: Europe's wildfires
Kevin Warsh sent financial markets into turmoil with a press conference that muddied, rather than clarified, the Fed's message. But was the confusion all part of a broader strategy from a Federal Reserve chair who takes a dim view of forward guidance? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss why
Trade wars, shooting wars and the AI investment boom
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI investment boom continues to reshape growth in the US and China.Trade war: What's behind the Trump administration's latest tariff announc
The next oil shock? And China's economy after the GDP miss
The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire has triggered another spike in oil prices and put markets back on edge. Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss whether the world is heading for another oil shock and what it would mean for growth and inflation. He also explains how Kevin Warsh's warning that the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" could translate into polic
Jennifer McKeown on where next for the advanced economies
It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week.Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on
From boom to bust: the AI equity rally in its final phase
For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow. On this week's The Weekly Briefing, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027,
AI's macro boost, a hawkish Fed and Burnham's balancing act
Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week’s US employment report and why markets are underestimating just
Tough economic choices in a fragile peace
A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market.It’s been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal mean
Fed preview: The case for raising rates | Oil's turning point?
Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donal
Fed hikes, inflation risks and AI stocks
Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Ad
A deal at last? What a Hormuz reopening would mean for oil and inflation
This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode
This bond market wobble won't be the last
This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, t
UK Labour party meltdown, gilt yields and why the bond market always wins
Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains wh
The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism
Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may
A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care?
A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate.Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the in
What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed?
The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn’t?In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist
Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis
Global imbalances are back. But how serious is the threat this time, and could they trigger the next phase of global economic instability? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack what is driving balance of payments positions to worrying extremes, why a more fragmented and volatile world raises the stakes, and why Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to take me
A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?
The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes.James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for e
AI and economies: from capex boom to productivity payoff
The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains?In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s g
Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting in the fog of war
Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the
Policy in a time of conflict: Central banks and the growth-inflation trade-off
Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions.At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how centra
Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict
News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy?Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios t
Middle East conflict, oil prices and that US jobs drop
Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and
Special Episode: Conflict in the Middle East – The key macro and market questions
Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including:The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices;The point at which risin
Can China finally fix its economic model?
Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy?Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point?That is what Julian Evans-Pritchar
Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets
The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this l
Brown on the US outlook, Gregory on UK politics
From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the prod
Tech sell-off, AI winners and losers, and reasons to be optimistic about productivity
In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growthChina’s AI rollout could rival the US
Inflation nation – Japan’s turning point and a critical election
This weekend’s Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates.But are markets really responding to fears of runa
Special Episode: What Kevin Warsh would mean for the Fed
Kevin Warsh has been named Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown, and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann come together for a special episode of The Weekly Briefing to address the key questions raised by this announcement, including:Whether Warsh woul
A new world order? | Why Russia’s economy won’t stop the war
Was this the week that shattered the western alliance? Not so fast, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. Despite the strains of a Trump presidency, deep economic dependencies on the US suggest that talk of a new international order is overblown. Neil cuts through the Davos rhetoric to explain the reality of the current global macro landscape.Later in the show, as the fourth anniversa
Neil Shearing on China’s trillion dollar surplus; Leah Fahy on China's AI race
Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That’s China’s big global macro play, and it’s one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief Economist of Capital Economics is on The Weekly Briefing to explain what that mammoth trade imbalance means for advanced and emerging econom
Maduro’s capture | Is the AI productivity boom here?
The first trading week of 2026 has been a whirlwind of geopolitical shocks and big economic developments. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back on The Weekly Briefing to break down an historic start to the year, including:The Maduro capture: Neil provides much-needed macro and market context behind the news of Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Venezuela.AI and US productivity impacts: Whe
Special: Global CRE outlook – Where to find returns in a uniquely weak recovery
This recovery in commercial real estate is unique. Across the US, Europe, and Asia, it has been defined by persistent weakness in both investment and prices. On this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Real Estate Economist Kiran Raichura and Senior Real Estate Economist Amy Wood join David Wilder to discuss whether this weakness will persist through 2026 and where investors can
Dodgy data, all flavour of rate move and a bubble that will keep inflating (for now)
The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing C
Special episode: The World in 2026 – Key drivers, key risks in global macro
In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China’s exporters can take market share and w
Can Europe compete in a fractured world?
The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wil
UK Budget: The Missing Growth Story | China: The Investment Mystery
After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales
More AI bubble fears, the UK Budget countdown and Saudi Arabia’s global pivot
Is the bubble bursting? Despite a big earnings beat from Nvidia, concerns about overheated AI valuations are mounting. Jonas Goltermann weighs the risks that the equities rally is fading. We also look at what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ Budget after an unusually turbulent build-up, and the possible economic fallout. And Neil Shearing considers what this week’s Trump-Mohammed bin Salman
Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff arrive?
Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of technology really means for growth and labour markets.The episode also marks the reopening of the US government with a clear assessment of the e
The Rachel Reeves tax threat, the Supreme Court tariffs test and the fate of the AI boom
Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets
Driving in fog, standing on ice: The Fed and the fragile trade truce
The Fed is trying to calibrate policy in the midst of a government shutdown that’s effectively cut off the flow of data. Jerome Powell says that when you’re driving in fog, you should slow down – but there’s still a case for the FOMC to follow this past week’s rate cut with another move in December, says Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown. He talks to David Wilder about wh
Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions
Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it’s a CPI report that’s given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September’s inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil S
US–China trade war – What’s driving the latest escalation
In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills o
The AI frenzy, Japan’s market shock and France’s political storm
How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It’s a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there’s more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China’s toughest move
Global Outlook: US leads, Europe lags | China’s equities boom
Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump’s policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, by contrast, the optimism seen earlier this year has faded as structural headwinds continue to hold growth back.In this episode of The W
Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue
Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back?Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to assess Trump’s tariff threats, explain why Stephen Miran’s call for US rates to be halved doesn’t add up, and exam
US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank shifts
There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it would fall short of easing the deeper tensions driving the fracturing of the global economy.Also on the show, with crime rising in Latin
US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs geopolitics
The Fed meets this coming week to decide how much monetary relief the US economy really needs. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing says that, employment data aside, the evidence argues for fewer rate cuts than markets are pricing in. He talks to David Wilder about the health of the economy, whether the surge in AI investment is making a difference, and previews the Bank of England meeting
US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's world order optics
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles that weak US August Employment report, previews the coming week’s inflation data, talks about what’s been happening in the bond market and explains just what recent get-togethers in China signal about a new world order.Also on the show, ahead of a crunch vote for France’s government, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham talks about why the F
Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy
What tensions will yet erupt as the US–China economic relationship unravels? What will the global economy look like in 2040? And what should business and government leaders be doing now to adapt to an era of economic fracturing?The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy is published on 28 August. In this special episode, author and Group Chief Econom
A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs slowdown
China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist Leah Fahy talks to David Wilder about the latest in China’s rebalancing story and what it means for the trajectory of its economic grow
China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's climb and India's tariffs hit
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the week’s biggest macro and market questions, including: what could Beijing do after more weak China data? Why tariffs aren’t showing up more in the US economy? How much have the latest inflation reports shifted the Fed’s rate-cut debate – and should the Treasury Secretary be taking shots at central banks?Also: Chief Markets Economist John Higg
BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking Trump’s manufacturing pledges to task
After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in the US following Donald Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Neil explains what this means for the credibilit
That big payrolls miss and the US outlook plus AI's energy demands
Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann unpack what the latest data reveal about the health of the US economy, the Fed’s strategy and how markets are reacting. Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands,
How the global economy is fracturing under Trump
Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in questio
What if Trump fires Powell? | Global inflation signals and the policy outlook
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through a deluge of DM inflation data to highlight where tariff effects are coming through, where price pressures look too hot and which central banks are best positioned to press on with policy easing. He also talks to David Wilder about what China’s manufacturing overdrive is doing to the global inflation picture.Also on the show, how serious is
'Tariff Man' returns, US-China diverging price risks – and is AI triggering a jobs bloodbath?
Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard provides the view from Beijing. They also explore with David Wilder why inflation is a ris
Tariffs deadline looms, Trump’s inflammatory tax bill and why deglobalisation isn't nigh
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiryWhether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in timeWhy China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreementWhat’s really troubli
The global economy's fragile underpinnings plus BYD, DeepSeek and China's productivity problems
A ceasefire in the Middle East. A US-China deal. Relatively benign dataflow. The S&P 500 back at a record high. But are things really looking up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk to David Wilder about fragilities under the surface of the global economy. He discusses worldwide fiscal risks, why there’s less to see with that US
Special: A fragile peace takes hold – what next for economies and energy markets?
After Israel and Iran agreed to stop fighting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley are on this special episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss what follows, including why oil prices are set to remain under pressure as the market attention shifts back to fundamentals, and the impact of other notable uncertainties such as the fiscal
Risk vs uncertainty in the Middle East, dollar in focus, and new Asia market coverage
What’s going to happen in this Middle East crisis? The fact that no one knows is the key point for investors grappling with an exceptionally fluid situation.In this week’s podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores the scenarios we've outlined so clients can assess how the Israel-Iran conflict could unfold. He also draws a distinction between risk and uncertainty – a critical d
Israel-Iran strikes, the Fed’s next steps, US-China trade talks and more
Following Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets, and Iranian counterstrikes, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing lays out what investors should be watching for across macro and markets. Among other issues, Neil also explains:Why – as things stand – this situation shouldn’t influence the Fed meeting in the coming week; What the latest inflation data signal about how
Are tariffs starting to bite? Plus, the economics of rising defence spending
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the latest data to assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs, including signs that the effects of tariff front-running are now unwinding. He also discusses how businesses are navigating the ongoing uncertainty and why the Bank of England is trailing the ECB in cutting interest rates.Also on the show, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood explo
Tariffs on! Tariffs off! Tariffs on! The latest episode in the trade war saga plus data to track the turmoil
After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on:Where tariff rates are likely to end up, even as “reciprocal” tariffs work their way through the courts;How worried the bond market really is
Trump’s EU tariff threat, jittery bond markets, UK macro update, gold’s next steps and more
Donald Trump jolted markets on Friday with a threat to slap steep tariffs on the EU. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing jumped back on the podcast to join David Wilder and unpack whether this is classic brinkmanship – or something more serious. In the original recording, Neil also discusses recent bond market moves following the House’s approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill, and
Back from the brink – How the global outlook has brightened (and what can still go wrong)
Things are looking up after the US and China de-escalated their trade war, but is the global economy off the hook? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tells David Wilder why the tariff situation is looking brighter, but also identifies the key flashpoints to watch in the coming weeks. John Higgins, our Chief Markets Econ
US-China trade talks preview, what to make of that US-UK "deal", and the future of Europe
One deal down. Many, many more to go. Except there was less to that much-touted US-UK trade deal than either government is suggesting and far tougher US talks with China and the EU are still to come.In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard unpack what was actually agreed bet
There's a trade war on – why aren't the hard data showing it?
If you’re looking for evidence of the negative hit from Donald Trump’s tariffs, you’ll struggle to find it in the hard data. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics minutes after the release of the US employment report for April to talk about how economies have been holding up in the weeks since the ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. In his convers
Reports of King Dollar’s death – exaggerated or inevitable?
Another rollercoaster week in Trumpland wound down with markets buoyant on reports of more White House softening in its approach to tariffs and China taking steps to ease restrictions on some US imports. But are things really looking up? And, if so, why hasn't the dollar bounced with equities?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, are
The pause is on! What to expect from the global economy during and after Trump's tariffs pause
Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics joins the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to address some of the questions that have kept coming up in
It's a US-China trade war, after all
As the dust settles after another of week of dramatic policy shifts, the picture that has emerged is a familiar one from Trump's first term: China is the main target after all. China isn't taking Trump's tariffs lying down. Instead, it has hit back tariff for tariff so that both sides are now applying tariffs to each others' goods of well above 100%. In this week's episode, Group Chief Ec
Special: Trump's reciprocal tariffs, China strikes back and a hellish week for markets
At the end of one of Lenin’s “weeks when decades happen”, senior economists from Capital Economics briefed clients on the implications of the news that China is retaliating aggressively to Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan, including whether Europe could follow suit and how much more pain is in store for markets. In this edited extract from that briefing, Neil Shearing, Mark Williams
A "whiff of stagflation", the state of US exceptionalism, and China's weak start to 2025
There’s a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that’s even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and
