The Assessment
The Assessment is a podcast that tackles the most pressing geopolitical questions. Each episode begins with an AI-generated probability forecast, which a panel of leading experts then interrogates by testing assumptions, weighing evidence, and probing the limits of forecasting. The show is hosted by Charlie Edwards and produced by the IISS Crowd Forecasting, Collective Intelligence and Strategic Risks programme, with support from Acacia.
Episodes
Crisis in the Sahel
In episode four of The Assessment, Charlie Edwards is joined by Dr Dan Watson, Research Associate for Conflict, Security and Development at the IISS, and Paul Melly, Consulting Fellow in the Africa Programme at Chatham House, to unpack the deepening crisis across Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. With insurgents making gains against the Malian junta, is Russia's Africa Corps quietly shifting from coun
Hormuz: choking the Strait
In the third episode of The Assessment, Charlie Edwards, Emile Hokayem and Elliot Hentov probe an AI forecast suggesting that it is unlikely that major carriers will announce a full resumption of services through the Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year. They explore Iran's 17 August fee deadline, the insurance and mine-clearance bottlenecks and what a semi-permanent Cape detour would
NATO and the five percent
In episode two of The Assessment, our experts revisit the Hague summit pledge of 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 one year on and ask whether it's already fiscally out of reach for key NATO members.Host Charlie Edwards is joined by Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics at the IISS, and Howard Mustoe, Editor of The Rearmament. They interrogate an AI generated forecast that assesses it is
Russia’s fiscal reckoning
In the inaugural episode of The Assessment, host Charlie Edwards holds discussions with Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and Timothy Ash, BlueBay Senior Sovereign Strategist for Emerging Markets, to explore whether Russia could face a formal fiscal crisis within the next two years. Using an AI-generated forecast they explore the country’s worsening fiscal pressures, o
The Assessment
Most analysis tells you what just happened. The Assessment podcast asks what comes next. Hosted by Charlie Edwards, each episode takes a geopolitical question and opens with a forecast generated by an AI-powered platform. That forecast is then put to leading experts who examine its assumptions, identify its limits, and bring regional and subject-matter expertise to bear on the que
