The Political Risk Podcast
The Political Risk Podcast is an independent show focused on geopolitics and insurance markets. Host David Benyon speaks with senior brokers and underwriters from specialty insurance alongside authors, academics, analysts, and diplomats. The podcast serves risk professionals, leaders, and decision makers who need to understand political risk. Each episode blends insurance industry insight with broader geopolitical expertise.
Episodes
The Reinsurance Paradox: Rising Risk, Falling Prices
David Flandro, head of industry analysis and strategic advisory at Howden Re, discusses a growing reinsurance paradox: global risk is rising, but prices are falling. The episode was recorded as re/insurance executives headed to Monte Carlo for RVS 2026. The conversation explores what geopolitical instability, higher interest rates and the cost of capital mean for the market, whether Middle East lo
The Political Violence Reset: Can the Market Stay Sustainable?
Chris Jarvis, group chief underwriting officer at IGI, discusses the reset taking place in political violence insurance.With geopolitical instability and conflict in the Middle East testing underwriting assumptions, Jarvis explains how IGI is adjusting pricing, line sizes, aggregation and capacity across its global portfolio.The discussion explores whether affordability is creating gaps in politic
"Peace Through Strength": Has Israel Won Its Wars?
Almost three years on from the October 7 terrorist attacks, Israel has fought across multiple fronts, from Gaza and Lebanon to direct confrontation with Iran.Amiad Cohen, CEO of The Herut Center, argues that Israel has substantially reduced the military threats surrounding it, outperforming pre-war expectations through a strategy he calls “peace through strength”.He discusses whether Israel’s wars
Financing Africa: Banks, Insurers and the New Geopolitics of Capital
Sub-Saharan Africa’s government financing landscape has been transformed by credit markets, changing geopolitics, and new sources of capital. This special episode, produced in association with Mosaic Insurance, features Katharine Villers, political risk underwriter and head of commercial finance at Mosaic, and Nick James, director, structured finance at ICBC Standard Bank. They explore how the con
From Events to Insights: Learning from PVT and SRCC events; with Verisk live at Lloyd’s
How can political violence and terrorism insurers turn recent events into better underwriting insights? Recorded live at Lloyd’s during Verisk’s “Insuring Political Violence, SRCC, and Terrorism Forum”, this special episode brings together Alex Baker of Chaucer, Guy Burrows of Inigo and Torbjorn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft. The panel explores the underwriting lessons emerging from recent geopoli
SRCC: The Emerging Portfolio Peril
Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) have moved from the margins of property and political violence portfolios into sharper focus for insurers and their reinsurers. This special episode with Lockton Re features senior catastrophe modeller George Wragg and consultant Paul Upton, along with Blackthorn head of advisory Jerry Smith. They discuss why the SRCC threat is important, the sociopolitica
John Hulsman on Trump’s Deal with Iran, the Balance of Power, Political Risk Wargaming and Forecasting
Forecasting phenomenon Dr John Hulsman returns to the podcast. John has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk in the multipolar era. He prides himself on his ‘call record’, beating those of his rivals. We discuss Trump’s deal with Iran, the balance of power in the Middle East, political risk forecasting at the halfway point of 2026, the use of war gaming as a tool
Mobilising Capital: Credit and Political Risk Insurance and the Future of Global Investment, with AXA XL's Rafael Docavo Malvezzi
Credit and political risk insurance has become a critical tool for mobilising capital into complex markets, supporting trade, investment and development finance through a period of heightened geopolitical and credit uncertainty. In this episode, Rafael Docavo-Malvezzi, global chief underwriting officer, political risk credit and bond at AXA XL, discusses the credit cycle, underwriting challenges,
Choke Points & Geopolitical Risk: Resilience Building for Supply Chains in Crisis; in association with Gallagher Specialty
Geopolitical risk is putting global supply chains under renewed pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis adding to existing concerns around trade disruption, tariffs and fragile logistics networks. Alec Russell, managing director, cargo for Arthur J Gallagher International, and Alex Vile, associate consultant, threat intelligence at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company, discuss how organisations are
The Iran Conflict and its effects on Political Violence Re/insurance, with Sandy Warne, Dan Callow & Cosmo Warner
War in the Gulf in 2026 is a defining event for political violence. Underwriters face unprecedented claims activity, with individual Iranian missile and drone strikes accounting for hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, together representing more insured financial loss in just a few weeks than several years of the Russo-Ukrainian war.Sandy Warne of Sukoon, Dan Callow of Starr, and Cosmo Warne
Hotels as Targets: Data-led Malicious Risk Underwriting; with Muir Analytics’ Jeff Moore
Hotels are increasingly on the frontline of political violence and malicious risk, from terrorism and civil unrest to missile and drone attacks. In this special episode, Jeff Moore, PhD, CEO of Muir Analytics, explains how data-led underwriting and threat intelligence are reshaping how insurers and risk professionals understand and price these exposures. Drawing on case studies from the SecureHote
Modern Perils and Modern Assets: UAVs, Data Centres and the Next Frontier of Risk; with Blackthorn’s Jerry Smith and Thea Grootenhuis
Modern perils are colliding with modern assets, as drones and data centres reshape the risk landscape in real time. Blackthorn senior broker Thea Grootenhuis and head of advisory Jerry Smith explore how UAV-enabled attacks, critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, and a volatile geopolitical and malicious risk environment are converging. Drawing on live conflict dynamics in the Gulf, alongside les
Active Assailant Risk: Data Demands to Underwrite a Deadly Peril
A special episode exploring the rise of active assailant risk and the growing demand for data-driven underwriting in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Joshua Watson, senior underwriter, war and terrorism, North America, at Markel International, joins Gamze Tekin, senior product owner at Concirrus, to examine how this peril has moved to the forefront of crisis management and political violence i
War and terrorism: an integrated approach to claims and underwriting; with LSM's Sarah Howell & Jennie Beard
War, political violence and terrorism demand close coordination between underwriting and claims teams – particularly when geopolitical crises escalate quickly. In this special episode, Sarah Howell, head of first party claims, and Jennie Beard, underwriting manager, war and terrorism, Liberty Specialty Markets, discuss how collaboration works in practice, drawing on experience managing global a po
Middle East update and the evolution of Credit and Political Risk Insurance, with BPL's James Esdaile
The rapidly evolving Middle East crisis forms the start of this conversation with James Esdaile, executive chairman of BPL, examining the immediate implications for insurance markets since the US and Israel began military operations against Iran on Saturday. The interview that follows explores the evolution of credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) and standalone political risk insurance (PRI)
Political violence broking and multinational client strategy in a complex threat environment, with Price Forbes’ Cosmo Warner
Political violence entered 2026 in an increasingly complex risk environment and a highly competitive insurance market. Cosmo Warner, director, war, terrorism and political violence at Price Forbes, reflects on recent renewals and what they reveal about the state of the market. The conversation explores how London’s specialty market is balancing soft pricing with emerging loss activity and shifting
Political Risk and Violence Intelligence: Turning Signals into Structured Peril Insights
Canongate AI is a new political risk and political violence intelligence solution that converts millions of geopolitical inputs into structured intelligence for underwriters. Already deployed by specialty insurers, the platform provides underwriters and analysts with a clear, structured view of the geopolitical landscape, distilled by AI, from what would otherwise be an overwhelming flow of raw in
Political Violence in a dynamic risk environment, with Markel’s Matthew Brooke: SRCC top challenge; War Risk getting closer to home
Matthew Brooke is a senior war and terrorism underwriter at Markel. In this episode he explores how political violence underwriting is evolving within an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment globally. The conversation begins with Matthew’s role, background and Markel’s political violence portfolio, before moving into how insurers are balancing portfolio management, market competition an
Beyond the Blast: Capital Management of Tomorrow’s Terror Threats
A special episode of the Political Risk Podcast, produced in association with Lockton Re, to examine how the re/insurance market should rethink terrorism risk in an age of volatility. The conversation is built around the report “Beyond the Blast: Capital Management of Tomorrow’s Terror Threats”, published by Lockton Re in collaboration with Blackthorn. It features three of the report’s authors: Pa
Geopolitics, Leadership and Risk at Mach 2, with John 'Dragon' Teichert, Brig Gen, US Air Force (ret)
John Teichert is a recently retired US Air Force brigadier general and former test pilot for the F-22 stealth fighter. A graduate of MIT and Stanford, John flew combat missions in the F-15E, call-sign “Dragon”, and test piloted the F-22 Raptor. He later commanded Joint Base Andrews and Edwards Air Force Base. He went on to serve as the senior US Defense Official in Iraq and finished his military c
Art vs Science: Data, Decision-making and the Future of PVT Underwriting
Join two special guests for a conversation about the future of political violence and terrorism underwriting. Billy Ayres is head of crisis management at The Fidelis Partnership, and Simon Fagg is global head of pre-sales solutions at AdvantageGo.We discuss how PVT underwriters blend expertise with analytics, what underwriters really want from their data and tech providers, insurer fears about str
Political Risk Outlook: Conflict, Instability and the World to 2030
This special edition of the Political Risk Podcast features Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook report. Anna Gilmour, Head of Global Risk Insight, joins Hugo Brennan, Director of Research, EMEA, to discuss the research, offering a forward-looking assessment of the forces reshaping geopolitics, global markets and insurance portfolios.The special episode explores why political risk has become
History matters...and so does ignoring it, with Mosaic’s Charlie Mackay and Robert Hunter
Robert Hunter, former US ambassador to NATO and chief White House official for Europe and the Middle East joins Mosaic Insurance’s international CUO Charlie Mackay to explore why a firm grasp of history is essential to understanding today’s geopolitical uncertainty. From US foreign-policy unpredictability to the return of great-power rivalry and the role of China, Robert explains how complacency o
Leadership through geopolitical crisis, with WTW’s Pamela Thomson-Hall
Pamela Thomson-Hall, head of international at Willis, offers crisis management advice, supporting clients through geopolitical shocks and leading an international broking business. From Russia–Ukraine lessons to horizon scanning, scenario analysis and a guidebook for CEOs, she explains why preparation, agility, clear communication and cultural sensitivity are essential when crises suddenly unfold.
Insuring Ukraine: MS Amlin’s URGF blueprint for war risk and resilience
As Ukraine endures and rebuilds, insurers are playing a quiet but crucial role in keeping goods moving and businesses operating.Jamie Cleary, head of crisis management at MS Amlin, speaks about the creation of the Ukraine Reinsurance Guarantee Facility (URGF), a landmark partnership between the EBRD, donor governments, and the private insurance market.He explains how the URGF provides war risk cov
De-risking Development: LSM’s Will Limb on Political Risk Insurance and the SDG Investment Gap
How can political risk insurance unlock trillions in investment for sustainable development? William Limb, head of political risk solutions at Liberty Specialty Markets (LSM) discusses a landmark UNCTAD report, “De-risking Investment for Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Political Risk Insurance”. The conversation explores how political risk cover can bridge the $4trn annual funding gap h
Kidnap & Ransom: Global Hotspots and Conditions for K&R to Thrive
Kidnap and ransom (K&R) is one of the most specialised – and least understood – corners of the insurance world.In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Eddie Kurshumlija, director of crisis management at Gallagher Specialty, and Adam Carrier, head of consulting at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company, explore how K&R policies work in practice, from what’s typically incl
Aviation war to multi-class specialty – watch this space – HIVE's Bruce Carman
Bruce Carman, CEO of Hive Underwriters, returns for a wide-ranging conversation. You can’t get broader than space, where we start, which is Hive’s latest launch. We trace the London MGA's development from aviation war into multi-class specialty agency. We also discuss consequences of June's High Court ruling that losses incurred by aircraft lessors of planes seized by Russia after its inva
A perfect storm for credit and political risk re/insurance, with Lockton Re's Eran Charit
Trade wars and geopolitics are reshaping global supply chains, counterparty risk, and credit and political risk insurance (CPRI). In this episode, Eran Charit, senior broker at Lockton Re, shares his perspective on how a pipeline of new CPRI entrants and fresh capacity are softening conditions in the primary market, while treaty reinsurance remains more fragile to systemic shocks, due to the short
Social media and political violence, with Arch’s Jelle Ouwehand
Jelle Ouwehand, head of war, terrorism and political violence at Arch Insurance International, features in this episode. Political violence has a close and complex relationship with social media. The speed at which news travels, and the democratising power of social media, are meeting with forces of political populism and polarisation. Together with increased proliferation of fake news, misinforma
No going back: A riskier, more fragmented world order – with Swiss Re's Jérôme Haegeli
Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re’s chief economist, discusses its latest Sigma study. Global growth is slowing at a time of large macroeconomic regime shifts; extreme policy uncertainty is set to persist with the highest US goods tariffs since the Great Depression, the reinsurer’s report warns. This ep relates headline geopolitics to outcomes for insurance premium and claims trends – positive and negative
The first Catastrophe Risk Model for Civil Unrest: Verisk Maplecroft's SRCC model for the United States
Verisk Maplecroft’s new Strikes, Riots, and Civil Commotion (SRCC) model for the United States is the market’s first probabilistic SRCC catastrophe model. Since 2017, SRCC has led to $10bn of insured losses, compared to $1bn for terrorism. Civil unrest in the US recently hit the headlines in Los Angeles. In 2020, SRCC topped $3bn in industry-wide insured losses. A one in 100-year event, in Verisk
Trump tariffs for ASEAN to navigate , with ambassadors Sek Wannamethee & Sir Richard Gozney
The 90-day pause on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs is due to expire on 9 July. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the targets. When a blanket tariff rate of 10% expires, Thai goods will be targeted with a 36% tariff, Indonesian goods at 32%, for instance. Two senior diplomats feature in this ep. Sir Richard Gozney is a retired senior British diplomat, ex-gover
Macro Risks & Buying Trends across Credit, Political Risk & PV, with SCOR Business Solutions’ Kayley Stewart & Babak Tavassolie
For the latest episode, two guests feature from SCOR Business Solutions: Kayley Stewart is head of crisis management; and Babak Tavassolie is head analyst of political and credit risk. It’s a wide-ranging conversation, encompassing two geopolitically interrelated but separate specialty insurance lines of business that are at the very core of this pod – political risk and political violence. We dis
Responding to challenges in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape – City of London CRO Summit
The City of London Corporation hosted a Chief Risk Officers Summit at the Guildhall on 21 May, including a panel discussion: “Responding to challenges in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape”. Panellists included: Andrew McDougall, Head of Geopolitical Risk, Barclays; Savannah Thompson, Head of Political Risk & Underwriting Development, The Fidelis Partnership; Esperanza Cerdan, Chief Risk
Special Ep: European PV; Politically Motivated Sabotage; Overseas France SRCC; with LSM’s Björn Reusswig and François Barriol
A special episode, in association with Liberty Specialty Markets, focused on European political violence (PV) risks. Politically motivated sabotage is a huge topic across Europe, amid heightened concerns about hybrid-war and grey-zone threats amid a potentially volatile political backdrop. Strikes Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) are the front-and-centre PV risk, particularly given recent civil un
100 days of Trump 2.0 – Tariffs in focus, with Airmic’s Alex Frost and Hoe-Yeong Loke
As we hit the first 100 days mark of US President Donald Trump’s second term, no other single word sums up the preoccupation of business leaders around the world better than tariffs. This conversation assesses the impact of the US’s tariffs, particularly on Canada, Mexico and China, and asks how risk professionals and their organisations are responding to the fast-moving shifts in global trade. My
Method to Trump’s Madness, with Firas Modad of Modad Geopolitics
Does Donald Trump have a master plan? The White House has sewn chaos in recent days, triggering stock market volatility with on-then-partially-off punitive tariffs globally, speaking softly with Russia, chastising Ukraine, talking openly about annexing neighbouring Greenland and Canada, and sparking an escalating trade war with China. Firas Modad, founder and principal of Modad Geopolitics, a cons
Special Ep: Should the World Fear China? Colonel (ret’d) Zhou Bo & Mosaic’s Finn McGuirk
Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, joins Mosaic’s global political risk leader Finn McGuirk, for the latest special episode in association with Mosaic Insurance. Colonel Zhou Bo is a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University, a distinguished fellow of the Global Governance Institution, and a regular PLA speaker
Special Ep: Renewables meet Realpolitik; PVT threats to Renewable Energy Projects; with Gallagher Specialty’s Harry Walker & Adam Carrier
Political violence and terrorism risks to renewable energy projects are the focus of the latest special episode in association with Gallagher Specialty. Two guests feature in this timely conversation: Harry Walker, director, structured credit and political risks at Gallagher Specialty; and Adam Carrier, head of consulting, at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company.
A ‘first of its kind’ Ukraine war risk reinsurance facility, with McGill's Hamish Greenwood
Hamish Greenwood is head of crisis management at McGill and Partners. In January the broker launched a new war risk reinsurance facility for commercial property in Ukraine. A good example of market innovation and collaboration, it uses FortuneGuard’s AI-powered tech, fuelled by three years of Ukrainian government air defence data, and partners local capacity from Ukrainian insurer ARX with several
Special Ep: Political Risk Outlook with Verisk Maplecroft’s Jimena Blanco & Hugo Brennan
Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook draws on a unique portfolio of country risk data, alongside analysis from its team of experts, to strip back the complexity of some of the key global issues driving the risk environment for international business. This special episode features Jimena Blanco, Chief Analyst at Maplecroft, and Hugo Brennan, Maplecroft’s Research Director for Europe, the Midd
Charles Hecker, ‘Zero Sum: The arc of international business in Russia’ – And the risks of going back
Charles Hecker spent forty years travelling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia as a political risk consultant and journalist. He is the author of ‘Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia’. We discuss this acclaimed new book and draw lessons from the highs and lows of doing business in post-Soviet Russia, from communism to capitalism, and to the exodus of three years ago. Ther
Allianz's Srdjan Todorovic: Geopolitics omnipresent on Risk Barometer; Sabotage & BI threats loom large
Srdjan Todorovic is head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial. In this episode we talk through the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025. Geopolitics is a recurring theme throughout the report, and our conversation focuses on three of its top ten ranked risks, including business interruption, cyber risk, and political risk and political violence. We discuss the hot t
The Atlantic Council's Elisabeth Braw: Goodbye Globalization; Hello Gray-Zone Aggression & Undersea War
The insurance industry and the private sector are on the frontline of hybrid warfare, already a big news story in 2025. Elisabeth Braw is a journalist and author focused on responses to ‘Gray-zone’ aggression, including sabotage operations, cyber-attacks and damaging subsea cables. She is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, and a senior associate fellow a
SE Asia, US & China: BRICS joiners; ASEAN Schengen; and a Filipino Game of Thrones – KCS's Adrian Poole-Robb & Aidan Mooney
Southeast Asia is at the forefront of Asia Pacific geopolitics, with the US and China vying for influence. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia recently became BRICS ‘partner countries’. The Philippines has tilted towards the US since Bongbong Marcos took office, and regularly clashes with China to defend its maritime borders. Meanwhile, several ASEAN countries are developing a biometric cros
Special Ep: Redrawing Borders Globally and the Balkans ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’; with Timothy Less & Mosaic's Mark Wheeler
A special episode, in association with Mosaic, focused on the integrity of borders amid a volatile new ‘age of secession’. Mark Wheeler is co-CEO and co-founder of next-gen specialty insurer Mosaic Insurance. Dr Timothy Less is a senior advisor for geopolitics at Cambridge University’s Centre for Risk Studies, and previously worked in the British Diplomatic Service. The thawing out of frozen confl
Special Ep: Intangible Risks, Concrete Examples – Infrastructure & State-Sponsored Cyber in Focus, with AnotherDay's Sneha Nichols‑Dawda
Infrastructure is on the frontline of so-called ‘grey zone’ tactics used by government-sponsored actors, including cyber-attacks that can be aimed at disruption, theft and corporate espionage, meaning businesses should be vigilant and resilient against the threats. Which is where AnotherDay comes in, as a Gallagher company and specialist crisis and risk management consultancy. Sneha Nichols‑Dawda
A New Sheriff in Town: US Election Debrief and Political Risk Outlook, with Marvin Barth
Marvin Barth is creator of Thematic Markets, providing independent research and analytics on the global political economy. An economics PhD, he has worked as an economist, strategist and portfolio manager at big banks and asset managers, and across the policy spectrum, including the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the Bank for International Settlements. Our conversation focuses on the political a
Dan Callow: A soft market for Political Violence; War and SRCC risks loom large
Dan Callow is lead underwriter for political violence, terrorism and war lines of business at specialty insurer and reinsurer IQUW. The political violence market can be characterised as competitive. Pricing is soft and driven by a growing number of insurance companies collectively offering a large volume of direct and facultative capacity. The underlying risks are best described as volatile, with
Special Ep: US Election Political Violence Outlook, with Tina Fordham & Mosaic's Adam McGrath
A special episode, in association with Mosaic Insurance, focused on the political violence outlook for the US Presidential Election set for November 5 2024. Tina Fordham is a geopolitical strategist and advisor, and founder of Fordham Global Foresight. Adam McGrath is the global head of war, terrorism and political violence at Mosaic.
Savannah Thompson: ESG and Political Risk; Debt for Nature Swaps; Conserving Galapagos
Savannah Thompson is The Fidelis Partnership’s head of political risk and underwriting development. She’s also a great example of young female talent and career progression in the London market. In this episode we talk about: tips for industry joiners and her remarkable career so far; The Fidelis Partnership's new Syndicate 3123 at Lloyd’s; and the role of political risk in sustainability projects
Special Ep: Earth Moving Political Risks – Mining industry Expropriation Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa, with Gallagher's Rupert Morgan
Sub-Saharan Africa’s mining industry is highly exposed to political risk and particularly expropriatory acts by host governments. In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director, Structured Credit and Political Risks, Arthur J. Gallagher International, focuses on five countries: Burkina Faso; Mali; Ghana; Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania
Tom Johansmeyer: CrowdStrike & Cyber Cats; How much is hyperbole?
The CrowdStrike outage is the latest cyber event to leave underwriters fearing unforeseen catastrophe scenarios and questioning cyber risk aggregations. But could the dramatic headlines and re/insurance buzz about cyber cat be a whole lot of hyperbole? Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes, Price Forbes Re, and a POLIR PhD candidate at the University of Kent, Canterbury, certainly thinks s
Sam Wilkin: Charting a system in decline; WTW's Political Risk Index
WTW’s Political Risk Index analyses patterns in the world’s most vulnerable countries. Its latest report charts the decline of the rules-based international order, with all that that entails for peace, democracy, free trade and cross-border investment. Sam Wilkin, WTW’s director of political risk analytics, oversees the index, as well as a political risk survey, and a predictive model, to project
James Kench: Political Risk and Carbon Trading Markets
Carbon is tipped to become ‘the next cyber’ for insurance, a future trillion dollar market, as organisations launch net zero projects to curb climate change and trade carbon credits. Most carbon investment comes from the West, but most carbon projects happen in the Global South. This episode features James Kench, head of insurance at Kita, a Lloyd's MGA that insures carbon, and is launching a new
Special Ep: A multipolar world played out in financial markets; with Maximilian Hess & Mosaic's Finn McGuirk
A multipolar world meets the weaponization of the global financial system, and the Bretton Woods institutions at the core of the rules/norms-based international order are facing unprecedented challenges. A special episode, in association with Mosaic, featuring Finn McGuirk, Mosaic’s head of political risk, and Maximilian Hess, political risk analyst, principal of Enmetena Advisory, FPRI Fellow and
Genevieve Ahinful: African political risk outlook – five countries in focus
An episode dedicated to political risk and investor confidence in a selection of African territories, featuring Africa Specialty Risks’ head of political risk & trade credit, Genevieve Ahinful, and senior liability underwriter, Tyrone Hopwood. South Africa has a new coalition government. Rwanda is preparing for an election in July. Kenya has debt and supply chain issues. Egypt faces macroecono
Tom Clementi: Pool Re's treaty transformation of terrorism risk and talks about cyber risk
Featuring Tom Clementi, CEO of Pool Re, the UK's government-backed mutual reinsurance fund for terrorism risk. We discuss freshly agreed plans to transform Pool Re's operating model into a treaty reinsurer. Tom also talks about the IFTRIP 2024 international meeting of terrorism pools, hosted by the US Treasury. Cyber reinsurance and the role of government-backed PPPs like Pool Re was on the agenda
Michael Burle & Neil Roberts: War Risk in the Red Sea, Black Sea & Ukraine
This is a war risk insurance flavoured episode, featuring Michael Burle, head of marine at Liberty Specialty Markets, and Neil Roberts, secretary of the Joint War Committee, and head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association. We discuss the Red Sea Crisis of Houthi attacks on shipping, plus Somali piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden, and we also talk about re/insuring Ukrainian war
Michael Feller: Geopolitical Interregnum
The liberal international order, sometimes called Pax Americana, is in decline, but it's unclear what happens next. In this episode we explore the concept of geopolitical 'interregnum' as a framework for markets and insurers to consider the business environment. Michael Feller is a partner at Geopolitical Strategy, based in Melbourne, who has held senior roles in Australia’s foreign service and pr
Carla Jordan & Rafic Abi Saleh: South African PV & MENA markets in focus
Two political violence interviews from the recent GAIF34 event in Oman. The first focuses on South Africa before the country's tense general election in May. Carla Jordan is CEO of London-based Santam Specialist Business, and CEO of Santam-owned, Johannesburg-based MGA, Emerald Risk Transfer. The second conversation is with Rafic Abi Saleh, assistant vice president, war & terrorism at Liberty
Special Ep: Ransomware resilience & Cyber insurance; with Mosaic's Yosha DeLong and Jason Nurse
A special episode in association with Mosaic Insurance. Guests Yosha DeLong, global head of cyber, Mosaic Insurance, and Jason Nurse, reader in cyber security, University of Kent, discuss the need for greater alignment between insurance, corporate and government stakeholders for managing cyber security, particularly against the heightened threat posed by ransomware attacks.
Sir Stewart Eldon: Global Strategic Change; Adjusting to new Realities
Sir Stewart Eldon, KCMG OBE, is a consultant and former senior diplomat. His diplomatic postings include serving as UK permanent representative to NATO, ambassador to Ireland, and as the UK’s deputy permanent representative to the UN in New York. He advises Transparency International on counter-corruption in defence, and is senior civil adviser to the Higher Command & Staff College at the UK D
Bruce Carman: Aviation War; Knowledge-led underwriting
Bruce Carman is founder and chief underwriting officer of HIVE Underwriters. To coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Russia's government seized many western aircraft, this episode focuses on the aviation war insurance market in the period since then. Reinsurers have withdrawn capacity and increased prices exponentially, and last year a civil war in Suda
John Hulsman: The Last Best Hope; A History of American Realism
John Hulsman is a political risk analyst and best-selling author. A Washington insider, John is a life member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, and served as a senior research fellow in geopolitics and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. He has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk. His new book draws on realist case studies in American political hist
Chris Holt: Malicious Risk in 2024
This episode features Chris Holt, CEO of Lloyd's broker and advisory CHC Global, and a former British Army bomb disposal officer. We discuss CHC's Annual Malicious Risk Report 2024, which has three themes: political polarisation; the implications of energy transition; and the race for technological superiority.
Stephen Tench: Modelling terrorism and political violence
Insurers are used to catastrophe risk models, but modelling terrorism and PV, such as marauding attacks or outbreaks of civil unrest, is a very different challenge. Stephen Tench, Gallagher Re's head of Middle East & Africa catastrophe analytics, is a pioneer on this subject, employing fresh data for frequency as well as severity, adapting existing modelling techniques, and harnessing the revo
Michele Wucker: Geopolitics – the new Gray Rhino?
Michele Wucker is a best selling author, strategist, speaker, and qualified risk director. A strategic advisor and global economic policy expert, Michele coined the term “Gray Rhino” as a call to decision makers to improve how they respond to obvious, probable, impactful risks. A former media and think tank executive drawing on decades of experience in global finance and economics, she works at th
China-Taiwan crisis scenario, with Mark Wheeler & Zeno Leoni
Tensions are high between Xi's China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections in January could be the next flashpoint. The risk of conflict has been a live wire of Asian geopolitics since China’s civil war ended, splitting the island from the Communist mainland. Taiwan is a top exporter of semiconductors and sits astride a maritime trade artery. In early 2023, Lloyd’s undertook an RDS-style exercise to gat
Elizabeth Stephens: Israel, Gaza and the risks of regional escalation
A conversation with Elizabeth Stephens of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, on events in Israel, Gaza and the threat of regional escalation for the Middle East. We also discuss the rising emphasis on geopolitical risk for financial services firms, advice for entities with operations in the Arab world, and the respective roles of Iran, Russia and China in the ongoing conflict.
Crispin Hodges: Ukrainian grain and African food security
Political stability and food prices are closely linked. This episode with Crispin Hodges, head of trade political risk, Canopius, looks at the effects of Russia's decision not to renew the Ukrainian grain corridor deal and a resulting drop in Black Sea grain exports. If food costs increase and grain shortages ensue, how will this impact emerging economies in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?
Pressure Cooker: LatAm Political Violence; with Napoleon Montes-Amaya, Tom Bradbrook & Mario Salcedo
Latin America is a political violence hotspot. SRCC claims in some territories have surpassed natural catastrophe losses, driving insurers to exclude these risks, in turn resulting in strong demand for standalone political violence products. This episode focuses on the threat landscape and likely triggers. Guests: Napoleon Montes-Amaya, head of Hiscox Miami; Mario Andrés Salcedo, head of terrorism
Frédéric Denèfle & Neil Roberts: Black Sea Marine War Risk from IUMI's Conference
Frédéric Denèfle is the president of IUMI, and MD of marine war risk insurer Garex. Neil Roberts is head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, and secretary of the Joint War Committee. This episode looks at marine war risk in the Black Sea, the "Dark Fleet" of tankers, and the war risk and geopolitical focus for marine insurance at IUMI 2023.
Charlie Hanbury: Climate Change and Malicious Risks
Charlie Hanbury is the CEO of Samphire Risk, an independent London market MGA, focused on malicious risks, such as kidnap and ransom, crisis response, terrorism and political violence. This episode focuses on the interplay between malicious risks and climate change.
Jake Hernandez: Rebuilding Ukraine; Making War Risks Insurable
Jake Hernandez runs crisis management consultancy AnotherDay, recently acquired by Gallagher, an insurance broker. He recently returned from Kyiv and has been a regular visitor to Ukraine before and after the Russian invasion. Jake’s aim is to find ways to make Ukrainian war risks insurable. Finding solutions to this challenge is crucial for economic activity to continue within the country, as wel
We need to talk about China: CCP Political Interference; with George Magnus & David Worsfold
A launch episode on the risk of political interference by the Chinese Communist Party. Insurance companies have courted Chinese commerce while neglecting this threat to their own business. George Magnus is a research associate for University of Oxford China Centre and a former UBS chief economist. David Worsfold is an author and journalist who has experienced this Chinese wall of silence interview
