Hrkn to .. The Bigger Picture
The Bigger Picture is Simon Rose at his presenting best. He regularly enjoys digging behind the headlines to find the really interesting stories that are being talked about by economists and think-tanks which are helping to shape the conversations in Whitehall. In his weekly analysis with Mike Indian and Professor Tim Evans, Simon brings the latest political and economic thinking into sharp focus.
Episodes
The Bigger Picture: Reviewing the past 12 years, looking at the good, the bad and the ugly
For the final Bigger Picture with Simon Rose, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks back over the past 12 years of the programme. Into the good category, he places the advances in technology in areas like medicine, the digital world and the AI revolution. This will give a huge uplift to developing countries. As to the bad, that would include the polarisation of political life as the st
The Bigger Picture: What will Labour look like under Andy Burnham?
It is hard to say what finished off Keir Starmer as PM, says Mike Indian. It was political death by a thousand cuts. But he seemed to be decent and honourable and tried to do his best. Posterity will probably be kinder to him than many current critics are. It now seems certain that Andy Burnham will become Prime Minister and Mike thinks it right that there won't be a distracting leadership contest
The Bigger Picture: The unintended consequences of blanket bans & Cuba is going capitalist
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is concerned about the illiberal realities of a blanket ban on social media for children. It lets parents off the hook, infringes civil liberties and free speech and could be a slippery slope towards universal ID. Such heavy-handed restrictions have dangerous unintended consequences; just think about Prohibition and the War on Drugs. Tim is worried that
The Bigger Picture: Riots and two-tier policing, social media and under 16s & the Makerfield by-election
Political commentator Mike Indian finds it worrying how quickly narratives about events such as those in Southampton and Belfast can take on a life of their own, with some comments from politicians at home and overseas being less than helpful. A myth has sprung up about a two-tier justice system, weaponised by figures on the right. It taps into a lack of faith in our institutions. Ultimately, we a
The Bigger Picture: The intellectual divisions in the Labour Party and policing is another ruined British brand
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the recent interventions by Alan Milburn and Tony Blair are being ignored within the Labour Party, which is also oblivious to news that as many union members support Reform as they do Labour. It is clear that the new leader, if there is one, will be incapable of learning what needs to be done to win back the public, which would also pose pr
The Bigger Picture: Tony Blair's essay, Peter Murrell's plea and Alan Milburn's "lost generation" report
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the essay from the Ghost of Labour Past, Tony Blair, saying that Labour has lost its way. While he is right about some things, the essay has gone down like a lead balloon with many in the party, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting laying into him. Ahead of the Makerfield by-election, Labour is in a holding pattern. Whoever does succeed Keir Starmer will
The Bigger Picture: A Government at war with itself & is the UK more productive than thought?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Labour, in office for less than two years, is at war with itself, with the party deeply divided into several factions. Labour is entering very choppy waters and may not be able to retain a level of trust with each other to keep the party together. It wouldn't be surprising if the public compared them with the Tories and think "same difference".
The Bigger Picture: UK local election results and Labour's leadership
Political commentator Mike Indian summarises the UK's local election results which were a good night for Reform and the Greens but a rout for Labour, particularly in England and Wales. They don't tell us a lot, though, about where UK politics is going, except that voters are moving in different directions. It has caused panic in Labour ranks, with a steady drip of those calling for Starmer to give
The Bigger Picture: UK's youth unemployment, the unaffordable state pension and council micro-aggressions
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University is alarmed by the fact that 16% of Britain's 16-24 year olds are unemployed. This is worse than Spain and Greece, who used to be the outliers. Cost pressures, AI, bad health and a skills mismatch are all creating a perfect storm which will have a long-term detrimental effect for many. Tony Blair's thinktank is urging Labour to scrap the "unaffordable" st
The Bigger Picture: The Civil Service vs. Keir Starmer and the King's US state visit
Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the recent political kerfuffle involving Olly Robbins, Morgan McSweeney & Keir Starmer. It has exposed qualities lacking in the PM, particularly his lack of curiosity, his failure to grasp the nettle and to give direction. But he appears to have 9 lives, particularly given the fact that there is no obvious successor. It may be that the economic response t
The Bigger Picture: The impact of the Iran war, UK defence & the Hungarian election
Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Iran war will have a profound and lasting effect upon the UK government. In the short term, it has strengthened the Prime Minister's position, with his "Steady Eddie" persona. But the cost of living will come to the fore, with energy, food, CO2 and fertiliser costs all rising and the possibility of food shortages. The PM has come under attack for del
The Bigger Picture: The biggest geopolitical upheaval since the 40s & solving the student loan crisis
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that a huge political realignment is happening in the West. There's a new type of discourse which is less about economics, as it largely was for almost a century, and more about identitarian politics, about the shifting sands of statecraft and the nature of the nation state and borders. It's a big, historic inflexion point which Tim believes will
The Bigger Picture: Trump & Nato and Starmer pledging closer EU ties ahead of the local elections
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Trump's threat to leave NATO, saying that the closer the mid-term elections are, the more desperate Trump becomes. It is hard to see what has been achieved by the US action against Iran, other than entrenching the regime's hardliners and closing a vital trade route. Trump's threat is a frightening prospect, as NATO is the bedrock of European security.
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The Bigger Picture: Understanding Donald Trump, the Archbishop of Canterbury & will Net Zero be the new Brexit?
Professor Tim Evans says that to understand Donald Trump, you need to know that, in the late 80s and early 90s, he was a close friend of Richard Nixon, who told him that he used the persona of an irrational madman to unsettle others. Indeed, Nixon and his wife urged Trump to enter politics. In terms of policy, Trump is also a devotee of Reagan and William McKinley, an advocate of tariffs in Americ
The Bigger Picture: The UK-US relationship, oil price impact, Angela Rayner & Starmer's future
Political commentator Mike Indian says that in the light of the Iran war, the interests of Western nations are diverging sharply, with increasingly erratic American foreign policy – "muscular isolationism" – straining UK-US relations. The US President doesn't seem to see a need to keep allies onside and looks increasingly out of touch. The huge increase in the price of oil and gas is having an eff
The Bigger Picture: Undermining trial by jury, capitalism's role in women's lib & Reform now the best-funded party
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that English common law is the absolute jewel of the UK and that the undermining of trial by jury is utterly shocking; doubly so that it is being done by Labour, which has usually been at the vanguard of civil liberties. The UK public setor is withering and being hollowed out from the inside. He discusses whether the equality of women in society was
The Bigger Picture: Iran, the UK-US relationship and the Spring Statement
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Kier Starmer's decision to stay out of the strikes on Iran is wise. There is no sense of an end-game plan. All this is a long way from Trump's first-term rhetoric of "no foreign wars". It is hard to see this as anything but naked aggression. We, however, have built our post-war security under the US nuclear umbrella and our failure to protect our bases m
The Bigger Picture: The Gorton by-election, Gammon's Law in the NHS & the nicest man in British politics
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders what the Gorton and Denton by-election could portend for British politics. Could it be another signpost to the end of traditional two-party politics? Is something going wrong for the established political class? Might it signal the end of Starmer's Premiership? Tim cites both a study into NHS maternity services and a statement from a former healt
The Bigger Picture: Starmer's Teflon premiership and Reform's 'shadow cabinet'
Political commentator Mike Indian marvels at the Prime Minister's extraordinary survival act over the past fortnight or so, despite the circling vultures. His new cabinet secretary, Antonia Romeo, has just been appointed to disprove the talk of an inner circle "boys' club", but it's a moment of maximum danger for the Labour government with public anger at central government and the elite at a peak
The Bigger Picture: Why life is increasingly unaffordable, Labour's fissures & how Trump is reshaping our world
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the increasing unaffordability of daily living is something politicians won't admit to. It was masked for a time by the influx of cheap Chinese goods but no longer, pushed up by Net Zero, the minimum wage, tax rises and ever more burdensome regulations and government interventions. The costs of energy and housing are having the biggest effect,
The Bigger Picture: Can Starmer survive the Mandelson revelations and the forthcoming elections
The Mandelson revelations, says Mike Indian, is a serious issue, going to the heart of the UK government. It questions the political judgement of Sir Keir Starmer and his staff. Clearly Mandelson should not have been appointed without due diligence being carried out, particularly given that he has had to resign twice in the past over personal scandals. Mike does not expect Labour to hold the Gorto
The Bigger Picture: What has happened to beauty in housing and why has housbuilding in London collapsed?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that housing is one of the most important issues in the UK and that young people being unable to get on the housing ladder could have serious social and political consequences. He wondered why, when the Georgian style of homes is the most popular style of architecture with the public, the majority of contemporary houses look so unprepossessing. He i
The Bigger Picture: Under-16 social media ban, defections to Reform & Trump's erratic behaviour
Political commentator Mike Indian tries his best not to mention “the giant orange elephant in the room”. He discusses the Lords amendment which would impose a ban on social media for the under-16s. This would follow a similar move in Australia and has strong cross-party consensus. Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform was undermined to some extent by the response from a more assertive Kemi Badenoch
The Bigger Picture: The main themes for the UK in 2026, ID cards and other Labour U-turns
For his first appearance in 2026, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks as what he feels will be the big themes for the United Kingdom this year: geopolitics; living standards; state efficiency; devolution; leadership, the EU; trade & tech; and Net Zero. When it comes to ID cards, with the government heavily influenced by Tony Blair, the protests against the scheme made the public – wh
The Bigger Picture: Trump, Venezuela & Greenland and Starmer's New Year reset
Political commentator Mike Indian says that President Trump's abduction of Nicolás Maduro sets a new and dangerous precedent in international relations. It's a spectacular gesture but a "gesture" is all that it is and it could further destabilise an already unstable country. Trump's stated aims for Greenland risk undermining NATO and relations between the US and Europe. Mike believes he is acting
The Bigger Picture: Tim’s Top Ten in 2025
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University rounds off 2025 with his countdown of the 10 most significant issues. 10: Trade frictions and international relations are moving away from blockification and becoming messier. 9: Net Zero is on the wane and nuclear power is on the rise. Hydrocarbons could be around for longer than expected. 8: Productivity problems in Britain continue to bedevil the econ
The Bigger Picture: The Three Unwise Men
In seasonal spirit after what has felt like an exhausting political year, Mike Indian looks at the Three Unwise Men: Starmer; Trump; and Farage. Not since Attlee has a Labour PM had such internal difficulties and such a short honeymoon. His achievements have been drowned out by U-turns, defeats and gaffes. Labour are expected to do poorly in the May elections. Starmer is resilient and ruthless, bu
The Bigger Picture: Abolishing trial by jury & Labour pleasing the libertarian right
Professor Tim Evans adds his voice to those opposing the restriction to trial by jury. It is an ancient right to be judged by one's peers, a democratic safeguard of liberty against an overbearing state. He feels it will lead to a loss of public confidence and democratic illegitimacy of the legal system. Without the rule of law, you don't have trust and without trust you don't have an economy. The
The Bigger Picture: Reeves' Budget, Calamity Lammy's latest & the Farage racism claims
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Reeves had to satisfy both Labour MPs and the bond markets and, in doing so, has proven herself a better political operator than given credit for. But the tussle with the OBR is unfortunate. Mike feels its forecast horizon is too distant, though it must offer a robust challenge to government. "Calamity" Lammy's move to Justice has been nothing short of a
The Bigger Picture: What will be the outcome of Reeves' political Budget?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks that Rachel Reeves' highly-political Budget could have bought her and the Prime Minister some time, calmed the markets and even reunited the Labour Party. But what will be the unintended consequences? There will be a lot of deferred pain through tax rises. It could create weaker productivity, risk a two-speed economy, dampen consumer spending and
The Bigger Picture: Asylum reforms, the forthcoming Budget & leadership challenges
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Shabana Mahmood gave a very punchy performance announcing her asylum reforms, modelled on Denmark's policy. It's a bold attempt to win back votes from Reform: it will please some, yet alienate others. Mike is aghast at the degree of pitch-rolling ahead of the Budget, with a manifesto-busting increase in income tax floated, then abandoned. Reeves would ha
The Bigger Picture: Labour turmoil, crisis at the ONS & could finance leave New York?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Labour is now seeing as much rancour as the last Tory administration. The briefings against Wes Streeting appear to have increased the focus on the party's leadership. But could a more capable, charismatic leader fix the systemic crisis in a Britain where nothing seems to work when no politician is even discussing it? The crisis at the Office f
The Bigger Picture: Budget build-up, Reeves's rental problems & Andrew Mountbatten Windsor
Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Chancellor's pre-Budget speech is clearly setting us up for tax rises. Labour's biggest mistake was promising not to increase income tax, VAT or National Insurance. With taxes at a high but the British state so sclerotic, people are entitled to ask, "Where is my money going?" Mike found it interesting that at the very moment when it looked as if the
The Bigger Picture: Going abroad for care, Milei's win in Argentina and the attraction of US tax rates
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says getting serious medical treatment abroad has doubled in three years to half a million a year. Private health care hjere grows by 8-10% a year yet NHS waiting lists are still rising. Those now paying twice for healthcare may favour massive change in the NHS. Milei's unexpected mid-term win in Argentina is a huge win for free-marketeers and libertaria
The Bigger Picture: Gold, precious metals and the loss of faith in fiat currencies
Tim Price of Price Value Partners (Citywire's #1 fund YTD & over 12 months) feels that the performance of gold this year is less a gold story than a currency one. Freezing Russia's reserves torpedoed the US's funding powers when it has $38tn debt to fund. Since then, central banks have been disinvesting US debt in favour of gold bullion. The fiat currency jig is up. We know what a kilogram is, but
The Bigger Picture: Margaret Thatcher's 100th, sovereign debt alarm and do the French need a king?
With the marking of Margaret Thatcher's 100th birthday, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that many political experts now rate her even more highly than Churchill, a less successful peacetime Prime Minister. As the IMF warns about the UK's debt, growth and inflation, Labour's inability to cut profligate spending is taking the country to the edge while talk of higher taxes in the Bud
The Bigger Picture: October 7th anniversary & the Gaza peace deal and Labour & Tory conferences
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the 2nd anniversary of October 7th and the prospect of a ceasefire in Gaza, which would be a coup for Donald Trump. It's not an end to the war but a significant step on a long road ahead. Protestors at home are self-indulgent and should read the room.
Having been to Labour and Tory party conferences, both leaders have emerged in a stronger position, whi
The Bigger Picture: The party conference season & the systemic decline of the BBC
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks at the party conference season. The Labour event was particularly bizarre. Amplifying the Reform message showed they are in serious trouble and indeed the latest polls show Reform at 35%, their highest yet. The public is at the end of its tether with the major parties and isn't buying the change in Labour or Tory rhetoric. Tim expects a wave of Tor
The Bigger Picture: Andy Burnham, the US & free speech and Trump at the UN
Political commentator Mike indian thinks that it would be a big mistake for Andy Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer's leadership of Labour. He can't see what Burnham would bring to the table and feels it would be opportunistic in-fighting. He finds the American administration's criticism regarding free speech in the UK highly hypocritical. And he reckons Trump's speech at the UN is akin to a man st
The Bigger Picture: Kruger's defection, why the Crown trumps presidencies & the process of Brexit
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the defection of the talented Danny Kruger to Reform has demoralised the Tories. Will other defections mean they don't have enough numbers to be the official Opposition? He states why he believes that the most stable mixed economies are often those with monarchs, not presidents, especially in north-west Europe. Turning to Brexit, he feels t
The Bigger Picture: Lord Mandelson, Angela Rayner & the deputy leadership election
Political commentator Mike Indian wonders why the revelations about Lord Mandelson weren't caught in the vetting process but his sacking tops a bad week for the Prime Minister. Mike says that Angela Rayner will be missed: she spoke to Labour voters who Starmer can't reach. Mike expects she will return to the cabinet within a year or so and may yet end up as the party's leader. The PM needs a deput
The Bigger Picture: Graham Linehan's arrest, anarcho-capitalism & has the Tory party died?
After the arrest of comedian Graham Linehan for social media comments, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says we cannot go on behaving like this and expect our friends in the United States to go on supporting us in our quest for a free sociey. We are humiliating ourselves internationally and spiralling into a broader delegitimation crisis. Argentinian President Milei calls himself an ana
The Bigger Picture: Starmer's latest staff changes, Reform's deportation plan & Budget rumours
With Keir Starmer replacing his PPS, the third senior member of staff to leave, political commentator Mike Indian says it gives an impression of ineffectiveness and fosters a bunker mentality at the government's heart. Now that Reform is having to put meat on the bones of policies with its deportation plan, Labour must address the small boats problem. Although the Budget will now be largely writte
The Bigger Picture: The cryptography row, are the Tories 5th & is the UK teetering on the edge?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University looks at the increasingly farcical row over cryptography. As so often, the new bill's unintended consequence could leave the UK's young people even more susceptible to malign influences. He is fascinated by Nowcast's poll putting the Conservatives behind the Greens and SNP. Could we be returning to the 19th century conservative vs liberal political pictu
The Bigger Picture: The Alaskan summit, Vance in the UK & Reeves and the economy - 14 Aug 25
Political commentator Mike Indian worries about the outcome of the Ukraine summit in Alaska, given that Trump does not see Russia as the aggressor while Zelenksy has not been invited. With Vance's trip to the UK, we are seeing a very different relationship than other recent US presidencies, one where the American government appears genuinely interested in Britain. Rachel Reeves will be glad that U
The Bigger Picture: Labour is digging an ever-bigger economic hole, the strategic errors of the EU & the slow extinction of the human race
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that with Rachel Reeves facing a £50 billion black hole, he can't understand why the government is enacting or considering policies that will worsen our economic position. We are now surely in a doom loop and both Labour and Tories are making huge mistakes in carrying on with an unsustainable big state. He considers the strategic errors of the EU, w
The Bigger Picture: Recognising Palestine, the doctors' strike, Trump's visit & migration
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the move by Macron, Starmer and Carney towards recognising a Palestinian state. While largely a symbolic gesture which presents a number of complicating factors, the Netanyahu goverment is clearly losing support in the West. Discussing the doctor's strike, with a call for a 29% rise after getting 22% last year and Wes Streeting's tough language, Mike fee
The Bigger Picture: British politics could be changing out of all recognition
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that we are living in changeable times and that the major political parties we have known all our lives may not hold sway for much longer. Jeremy Corbyn has finally agreed to join a new hard-left party with Zara Sultana, although the name won't be announced until its first conference. Pollsters suggest 10% of voters could support it, mirroring what
The Bigger Picture: Labour MPs suspended, the Afghan data leak & lowering the voting age to 16
Political commentator Mike indian discusses the removal of the whip of the four MPs who led the welfare rebellion. Despite Labour's massive majority, it is proving hard to maintain party discipline. Rachel Reeves has emerged as Starmer's co-Prime Minister with market reaction to her tears in the Commons strengthening her position, as there seems no possible alternative Chancellor. The Afghan data
The Bigger Picture: The welfare state is unsustainable, Tim's manifesto & public opinion on healthcare
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that it is now obvious that the welfare state begun by Lloyd George and Churchill in 1909 is on an unsustainable path and that the political cowardice of MPs has to end. The OBR has warned how vulnerable the UK's position is, yet not even Labour can get a grip on it. Tim discusses his own recently published "manifesto" as to how a failing state wher
The Bigger Picture: The crumbling of Britain's welfare state & Trump's extraordinary first 6 months
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the wheels are coming off the welfare project that began in the early 20th century. The state can no longer do it all and either massive changes are made proactively or it will happen reactively through a money market crisis. Sadly, few politicians show the necessary pragmatism and we may already be seeing the early signs of a legitimation cris
The Bigger Picture: The G7 meeting, the grooming gang inquiry & the decriminalisation of abortion
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the G7 meeting with Donald Trump to the fore. He doesn't believe the vaunted UK trade deal with the US is the full thing but, more important, were the discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East. Mike also ponders whether the G7 is becoming less relevant as a body. He turns to the grooming gang inquiry, the latest in a long-running, disappointing saga. Th
The Bigger Picture: The UK's Doom Loop, "Return To Growth" & Starmer's backing of nuclear power
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes that the UK is now in a doom loop. With no coherent strategy, Rachel Reeves is digging us ever deeper into a hole, borrowing massively with no attempt to improve productivity or encourage growth. No wonder capital and talent is fleeing. For anyone wondering how we might do things differently in a politically viable way, reducing the state and im
The Bigger Picture: Winter fuel U-turn, the Spending Review and the Tories disowning the Truss Budget
Political commentator Mike Indian says that the Winter Fuel U-turn has undermined the position of the Prime Minister and Chancellor, with Labour MPs getting increasingly rebellious. But there is no obvious successor to Keir Starmer and Mike predicts that the PM will not only last till the end of this Parliament but stand again. In some ways, he feels, the forthcoming Spending Review is the biggest
The Bigger Picture: Will Reform face a new Project Fear, Are Western economies doomed & Railway renationalisation
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Reform's rise in the opinion polls could see "The Blob" mounting a new "Project Fear". But it could backfire, particularly as some people like rebelling against the establishment. Will Labour fracture as the Conservatives did? With populations declining and welfare and pension liabilities mushrooming, the financial situation of western democrac
The Bigger Picture: The winter fuel U-turn, the UK-EU reset deal & Angela Rayner's tax rise memo
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Labour's U-turn on the winter fuel payment, which would have been far less damaging if it had happened earlier. The party's communications, particularly on the domestic front, need to be considerably more savvy. The UK-EU reset deal should improve our relationship with Europe but it is inevitable we would become a rule taker after leaving. The biggest lo
The Bigger Picture: UK politics is at an inflexion point so what does it mean for party politics?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that UK politics is at a crossroads. He explains that many of the themes of modern political discourse have their roots in 1647's Putney Debates; he discusses the ideas of four diverse academics on the shifting sands of our politics and governance. And what of the future? Will Labour become the natural party of government? Are Reform the new Thatche
The Bigger Picture: Trade deals, local election results and Reform & the Australian and Canadian elections
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the predicted US-UK trade deal which is unlikely to be the full deal pursued by the UK for years but should still be a positive. The Indian deal is a significant one, given that India will be the 3rd biggest economy in the world. Both, however, are examples of how the world is becoming ever more complicated. Mike discusses the local elections, a bad nigh
The Bigger Picture: Chinese economic problems, Blair's attack on net zero drive & Trump's 1st 100 days
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University believes China's big problem is not Trump but its domestic economic woes. The extraordinary property bubble has left more vacant homes than the massive population. With high youth unemployment, China is potentially in a downward spiral, fuelled by widespread pessimism. Tony Blair has exposed the schism in Labour over the dash to Net Zero and with Trump's
The Bigger Picture: Ukraine, the Supreme Court gender ruling & the death of Pope Francis
Political commentator Mike Indian wonders what lasting settlement there can be in Ukraine given the capriciousness of the Trump administration. We are seeing a redrawing of global alliances, with the US returning to its former isolationist policy. In the wake of the Supreme Court gender ruling, he considers the divisiveness and politicisation of the topic and how nuance is being lost. We should be
The Bigger Picture: British Steel and statecraft, Trump's divisiveness & future military planning
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University discusses the nature of political economy in statecraft in the light of the government taking over British Steel. Why are so many of Britain's important companies plundered? Tim discusses Donald Trump's divisiveness. Despite disliking the man, has to admit he has been proven right on some things. But are his heavy-handed tactics brewing a very fundamenta
The Bigger Picture: Beyond Trump's tariffs, why savings shouldn't be taxed & the UK prepares for space
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that people should not look at Trump's tariffs in isolation. They are only part of his strategy. The press ignored his remarks on the US needing legal immigration, supply-side reforms and a new tax regime to unleash the country's potential. There are risks but, if he succeeds, we could be in a different world. While the UK government considers tinke
The Bigger Picture: Rachel Reeves's Statement, improving the housing market & university free speech
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that if the markets turn against the government then it is real trouble. If Reeves increases taxes in the Autumn, as many expect, then we will be in a doom loop. He admires an idea from Dr. Madsen Pirie of the Adam Smith Institute for using a blockchain approach to speed up the lamentable speed of the UK housing market. Why can the Americans move so
The Bigger Picture: A fifth of UK adults not looking for work, Starmer as an international statesman
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the fact that a fifth of UK adults are still not looking for work, what used to be called NEETS. The Government has to focus on getting as many people as it can into work sustainably, laying the groundwork for what it will be judged for at the next election. Mike believes that its communication strategy has improved massively. Starmer has come into his o
The Bigger Picture: What is Trump really up to, lessons from the Laffer Curve & the centre-right civil war
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Donald Trump wants to push through a fundamental rebalancing of the US economy, shifting wealth from the public to private sector. He is willing to go through a period of chaos to do so, using tariffs as a blunt foreign policy tool to bully and cajole. In the UK, we may be at, or over, the peak of the Laffer Curve where taxes cause a change in
The Bigger Picture: Trump & Zelensky, Europe's response and what US tariffs could mean
Political commentator Mike Indian says that since Trump's return to the White House, we are living in a very different world. The presidency is more sure-footed than Trump's haphazard first term. The staged falling out with Zelensky is a confirmation of the US pivot away from the world stage to a sharper, more protectionist era. It helped Keir Starmer have his best week as PM since he took office
The Bigger Picture: What is Trump up to, Labour is panicking in Wales & countering historical ignorance
As Keir Starmer is about to visit Washington, Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University thinks Trump's grand plan with regard to Europe and Ukraine is to prevent Russia becoming China's extraction site and tempt Russia out of China's orbit. With UK local elections looming, he thinks Labour are panicking, particularly in Wales. After over a century of Labour rule he feels that, as with the Conser
The Bigger Picture: Trump, Ukraine and what it means for Europe & Labour MPs' offensive messages
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses President Trump's recent statements on Ukraine, accusing it of having started the war, blocking elections and President Zelensky of being a dictator. How viable is Keir Starmer's statement that the UK will stand by Ukraine? After 78 years, relying on NATO for joint defence is no longer a certainty and puts presure on the UK's spending priorities. He also
The Bigger Picture: Trump is playing a clever game & could the Tories become the UK's 4th party?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that people are misreading Donald Trump. Discussing Greenland, Gaza, the Panama Canal, North Korea, NATO and more, he says that there is coherency there. Trump enjoys chaos and is actually thinking several chess moves ahead. He is forever and a day a New York real estate developer – loud, proud, bold and radical.
Tim feels that with Reform consisten
The Bigger Picture: Starmer & the EU, Is Reeves' growth speech enough and Trump & Gaza
While "Never Here" Keir Starmer thinks the UK can reset its position with the EU, political commentator Mike Indian believes the government is viewing the stagnating EU with rose-tinted spectacles and that this will not be a panacea for our financial troubles. Despite talking about it a great deal, the government has done little so far to promote growth and Reeves' recent speech highlighting a thi
The Bigger Picture: What Labour is getting right (& the Tories wrong) and Trump's Executive Orders
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that there was much in Rachel Reeves's recent speech, including her desire to see expansion at Heathrow, that was sensible and should have been done years ago by the Tories. But there was no realisation that her Budget had been disastrous, particularly on taxation. The Conservatives, though, are going about opposition in totally the wrong way and sh
The Bigger Picture: Trump's return as President, UK infrastructure & how safe is Rachel Reeves?
Political commentator Mike Indian says that Trump's return to the White House represents a pivot back to US isolationism which leaves a void to be filled and means a less secure world. Despite outward appearances, he feels that Trump's Presidency should not be seen as normal. The UK Government's removal of legal challenges to UK infrastructure projects is, he says, a welcome development. While the
The Bigger Picture: Is Labour pivoting right, a must-read book & Canada's federal elections
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders, now the wheels are coming off the government's bus, if Labour is pivoting to the right, with rumoured welfare cuts, implementing the university free speech law and scrapping the banning of gas boilers by 2035. If so, how will the Conservatives react? He strongly recommends Peter Turchin's book, "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites an Indicators of
The Bigger Picture: The Chancellor & the markets, the grooming inquiry call and Elon Musk & Reform
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the Chancellor's options in face of the rise in UK borrowing costs and fall in sterling. Will Keir Starmer retain confidence in her? His own future will be determined by her fate. He also addreses the grooming inquiry call and vote, worrying it all feels like too little too late. We owe it to the victims to see that the Jay Report's findings are implemen
The Bigger Picture: The political economy of time, the new "New Right" and the economic case against EVs
As 2025 begins, Professor Tim Evans takes the opportunity to discuss the political economy of seasonality and time and reflect upon the importance of time, which some political regimes have tried to amend. He feels we are starting to see the birth of a new "New Right", 45 years on from Reagan and Thatcher. While Milei, Trump and Farage have many different ideas, it appears that they are consulting
The Bigger Picture: Problems for the UK economy, Reform's danger to the Tories & the New Year ahead
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University rounds off the year's Bigger Pictures by explaining why investors are getting spooked by the UK economy going from bad to worse. We are effectively back in the 1970s, he says, only, in some ways, it's even worse. Instead of effectively tackling the problem, politicians' heads are full of spaghetti. If Elon Musk contributes heavily to Reform, a psychologi
The Bigger Picture: How to invest long-term when US debt us not just a problem but a predicament
Tim Price of Price Value Partners explains why, despite the US market's Trump optimism, US debt has gone from a problem to a predicament. Most western governments are technically bankrupt but Tim points out that, contrary to popular belief, there is no real link between economies and stock markets. He explains his investment philosophy which stresses the importance of not losing money, ignoring t
The Bigger Picture: France's political turmoil, why Starmer is doomed & the surge of Reform
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders if the French Fifth Republic can continue much longer, with its politics increasingly polarised. With the German economy in free fall, even the survival of the Euro may be in doubt. Tim finds Keir Stamer less the heir to Blair than to Wilson and Callaghan, believing he is a catastrophically bad PM who is avoiding anything meaningful while doublin
The Bigger Picture: The Assisted Dying Bill, net migration, the General Election petition & Davey's disc
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Kim Leadbeater's assisted dying bill. Will Starmer's authority be damaged if it doesn't pass? Will it affect his releationship with Wes Streeting, who is against it? Mike reckons that, pass or not, assisted dying is likely to be law in 10 years or so. He also discusses the upwards revision in net migration to almost a million in a year. Although Labour w
The Bigger Picture: European-style welfarism, the medical monopoly & the politics of the Tractor Tax
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University discusses how the government wants to turn the UK into an EU-style higher-spending social democracy, not realising that the European model is falling off a cliff. With Germany in economic meltdown, he reveals that directors of German's biggest car manufacturers are considering moving the businesses abroad. He discusses the role of Physician Associates i
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